Stuart Rothenberg: "Thune Wants To Run Against Daschle", Will Not Return To House!!!

Roll Call ^ | September 22, 2003 | Roll Call

[Pubbie]

So far, the important numbers of this year's Senate cycle are "4" and "7." There are now four open seats, and races in seven states are currently on the board as top-tier contests.

The three open Democratic Senate seats, all of them in the South, clearly are prime opportunities for Republican takeovers. While Democrats may well field a credible candidate in South Carolina – either state Superintendent of Public Instruction Inez Tenenbaum or Columbia Mayor Bob Coble – the state's partisan bent, especially in a presidential year, gives the eventual GOP nominee the advantage.

In Georgia, Democrats may turn their nomination over to former Atlanta mayor, former Congressman and former U.N. Representative Andrew Young. While Young, 71, is a hero of the civil rights movement and a figure of considerable achievement and stature, he looks to have considerable weaknesses as a Senate candidate.

The GOP side of the ledger in the Peach State is still scrambled, with three major hopefuls competing for their party's nomination, Reps. Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, and dynamic African-American businessman Herman Cain. But that shouldn't seriously undercut the GOP's initial edge in the race unless Democrats nominate a candidate with broader appeal than Young.

In North Carolina, Sen. John Edwards' decision not to seek a second term makes 2002 Senate nominee Erskine Bowles the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination, though he could face primary competition.

But while Bowles' financial resources, statewide name identification and campaign experience warrant putting this contest in the "tossup" category, Democrats shouldn't kid themselves about their prospects for holding the open seat. Bowles ran a good race in 2002 but drew just 45 percent...

...But Bowles' showing also serves as a reminder that even good Democratic Senate candidates normally draw between 45 percent and 48 percent of the vote there, and that a solid GOP nominee, backed by a united party and adequate financial resources, begins with a measurable advantage in the Tar Heel State...

...In South Dakota, Sen. Tom Daschle (D) will or will not be in a tight race – depending on whether former Rep. John Thune (R) challenges him. Thune wants to take on Daschle (and does NOT want to run again for the House), but after his narrow Senate loss in 2002, the former Congressman is delaying a final decision...

...If Thune runs, the South Dakota Senate race immediately becomes a tossup. And don't believe that talk that if Thune couldn't beat Johnson, he can't beat Daschle. The dynamics are different because it's a presidential year and Daschle is no longer the Majority Leader.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is terriffic news. In some ways, Tom Daschle is an easier target than Tim Johnson was. Sen. Johnson is a mild-mannered tax lawyer who concentrated on local issues and occasionally broke party ranks. Tom Daschle is a smug, aggressive partisain who has tried to thwart President Bush at every turn, and now he needs the support of voters who will be supporting Bush. Conservatives should be promising John Thune total support, and Bill Frist should promise Thune any committee assignments he wants.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

I can't stand Dachle. If he dropped dead in front of me I would urinate on him before I moved on.

If he dropped dead on a beach, my cat would bury him.

[Jeff Gannon]

That is precisely the strategy. And don't forget the spotlight that is being shown on Linda Hall Daschle, whose role in the Boeing boondoggle is beginning to emerge.

It will be part of the counter-attack on the Iraq supplemental. Stay tuned.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

What does the constitution demand that 60 votes are needed to end a filibuster? I know treaties require 67 votes...

The US Constitution calls for advise, consent, and confirmation by a simple majority (51%) of the senate for judicial appointments from the Executive.

By Senate rules, the full floor vote can only occur after all debate has ended. As long as the debate continues, the floor vote is postponed.

Senate rules do, however, allow for a 60 vote margin to end floor debate (cloture). However, if cloture cannot be obtained, by Senate rules the filibuster must go on.

And therein lies the problem. In the "modern age", actual filibusters are not happening. The demurring side (usually the Republicans) simply acquiesce to the THREAT of a Filibuster by their opponents. This allows "normal" Senate business to continue but is a de-facto capitulation to the opposition on the case at hand withot a fight. This is why I despise Republicans almost as much as I despise Dimocrats.

PS: The term "filibuster" derives from the term "filibusteros", an early 19th century nom-de-domaine to describe Spanish and Portugese pirates who often captured ships and held them for ransom.

[Pubbie]

That is my thinking also.

[Pubbie]

Right, Johnson pretended to be a "Conservative Democrat", Daschle won't be able to do that obviously.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

There are plenty of Dims to take their wampum. BTW, have you been following what's been going on on California and gaming? With the new law, any group of six or more people who call themselves "native Americans" can apply to open a casino! Soon there will be more casinos than gas stations here! I'm thinking of changing my name to Tom_Bear_Claw so I can cash in!!!

[Pubbie]

Thanks.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

If he dropped dead on a beach, my cat would bury him.

You probably would have to disinfect your cat then. :O)

[Dataman]

Now, now. Just because nine billion Native Americans voted doesn't mean the election was stolen. You're part of the "vast right-wing conspiracy," aren't you?

You are given to exaggeration. At least 4 billion of those where deceased voters.

[woodyinscc]

If he dropped dead on a beach, my cat would bury him.

Yes he is one miserable SOB. I know God loves us all, but in Mr. Daschles case, I am sure God is deeply saddened.

[curmudgeonII]

The bad news is that the GOP may well lose a seat in Pennsylvania. Admittedly Arlen S. is not much better than whatever Demo runs against him [and probably wins], but his loss will weaken the Republican hold on the Senate.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

You're welcome.

[Dataman]

Actually, I am a 66 yr. old overweight woman THUG!!!!

The world needs more tough, conservative seniors that can whip those wimpy libs into submission.

[Pubbie]

I think Toomey can win it all.

Hoeffel is too liberal to win statewide in Penn.

Remember, even Rendell had to run as a "Moderate" democrat.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Yes he is one miserable SOB. I know God loves us all, but in Mr. Daschles case, I am sure God is deeply saddened.

You can now extract your tongue from your cheek. LOL!

[cookcounty]

where do I send my check?

[TailspinJim]

Attention all FL voters.
Encourage and support Rep.(doctor) Dave Weldon to go for Senator Bob Graham's senate seat. Dave is my Congressman and a great conservative. GO DAVE

[Jeff Gannon]

I agree Toomey can win. He is gaining strength and he can beat Specter if he shows that the incumbent has the same voting record as Tom Daschle.

Tie the Hoeffel to Rendell. By this time next year Rendell may be the most unpopular governor east of the Mississippi.

[wita]

Probably because it will be difficult to prove intent in the matter of manslaughter, and in the second place there is a little know congressional immunity thing being noised about, which could be one of the reasons for the not guilty plea. Who in there right mind would plead guilty to a felony if you thought in your mind it was purely an accident (for whatever reason). By pleading guilty you have satisfied the family of the deceased, but convicted yourself needlessly if you did not intentionally run the stop sign. Either way mr janklow loses in the political department. He may not go to jail, but politically he is toast IMHO.