Stuart Rothenberg: "Thune Wants To Run Against Daschle", Will Not Return To House!!!

Roll Call ^ | September 22, 2003 | Roll Call

[Pubbie]

So far, the important numbers of this year's Senate cycle are "4" and "7." There are now four open seats, and races in seven states are currently on the board as top-tier contests.

The three open Democratic Senate seats, all of them in the South, clearly are prime opportunities for Republican takeovers. While Democrats may well field a credible candidate in South Carolina – either state Superintendent of Public Instruction Inez Tenenbaum or Columbia Mayor Bob Coble – the state's partisan bent, especially in a presidential year, gives the eventual GOP nominee the advantage.

In Georgia, Democrats may turn their nomination over to former Atlanta mayor, former Congressman and former U.N. Representative Andrew Young. While Young, 71, is a hero of the civil rights movement and a figure of considerable achievement and stature, he looks to have considerable weaknesses as a Senate candidate.

The GOP side of the ledger in the Peach State is still scrambled, with three major hopefuls competing for their party's nomination, Reps. Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, and dynamic African-American businessman Herman Cain. But that shouldn't seriously undercut the GOP's initial edge in the race unless Democrats nominate a candidate with broader appeal than Young.

In North Carolina, Sen. John Edwards' decision not to seek a second term makes 2002 Senate nominee Erskine Bowles the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination, though he could face primary competition.

But while Bowles' financial resources, statewide name identification and campaign experience warrant putting this contest in the "tossup" category, Democrats shouldn't kid themselves about their prospects for holding the open seat. Bowles ran a good race in 2002 but drew just 45 percent...

...But Bowles' showing also serves as a reminder that even good Democratic Senate candidates normally draw between 45 percent and 48 percent of the vote there, and that a solid GOP nominee, backed by a united party and adequate financial resources, begins with a measurable advantage in the Tar Heel State...

...In South Dakota, Sen. Tom Daschle (D) will or will not be in a tight race – depending on whether former Rep. John Thune (R) challenges him. Thune wants to take on Daschle (and does NOT want to run again for the House), but after his narrow Senate loss in 2002, the former Congressman is delaying a final decision...

...If Thune runs, the South Dakota Senate race immediately becomes a tossup. And don't believe that talk that if Thune couldn't beat Johnson, he can't beat Daschle. The dynamics are different because it's a presidential year and Daschle is no longer the Majority Leader.

[Pubbie]

"...In South Dakota, Sen. Tom Daschle (D) will or will not be in a tight race – depending on whether former Rep. John Thune (R) challenges him. Thune wants to take on Daschle (and does NOT want to run again for the House), but after his narrow Senate loss in 2002, the former Congressman is delaying a final decision..."

[Pubbie]

Extremely Important News *Ping*!

[GeronL]

bye bye Dashy

[OldFriend]

Thune had the election STOLEN!

[Pubbie]

It may turn out alright in the end, because if Thune had beaten Tim Johnson, we wouldn't have anyone to run against Daschle next year (Given how Janklow is indicted and all).

[Cicero]

I'm still annoyed that Thune refused to protest the stolen election. It was absolutely flagrant. But if he can beat Daschle, he will undo some of the damage he did by his misplaced highmindedness.

[Pubbie]

I've heard, that the White House encouraged Thune not to challenge the election so that he could go up against Daschle in 04, but Thune initially wanted to fight to the results (Remember, the GOP already won the Senate back, and many thought we would pick up Landrieous seat in the runoff.)

[Reagan79]

Absolutely the election was stolen. Stolen by the Indian reservations.

[nospinzone]

What do you think the chances are Daschle will decide bowing out is the better part of valor? He knows he will stew as minority leader for perhaps another full term. Or does his wife have him by the *ahem* you-know-whats because of her lobbying career?

[OldFriend]

There were other stolen elections in 2000. Oregon for one.

If the republicans are smart they are going to have challengers in EVERY precinct that has shown a propensity for election fraud.

[Cicero]

If so, it puts a better perspective on it. The word back then was that he refrained from challenging because he didn't want to spoil his political career and could take another shot at it.

It would make a big difference if it was for the good of the party rather than a career move.

But I still find it hard to believe that forgoing the prospect of having another vote in the senate--and one less for the Democrats--plus demonstrating what crooks Daschle and the state party had been were worth it. One more vote might have made a difference with the judicial appointments.

[OldFriend]

Daschle has just purchased a million dollar home in the D.C. area. I suspect that he will be glad to stay in D.C. and never go back to his home state.

[Pubbie]

"One more vote might have made a difference with the judicial appointments."

We need 60 votes, Thune winning would have given the GOP 52 seats.

[geedee]

Thune had the election STOLEN!

Now, now. Just because nine billion Native Americans voted doesn't mean the election was stolen. You're part of the "vast right-wing conspiracy," aren't you?

[kylaka]

It likely was stolen, but proving it is an altogether different thing. Thune can now count on a sympathy vote of a couple percent.

[OldFriend]

Actually, I am a 66 yr. old overweight woman THUG!!!!

Remember that!!!!! LOLOL

[Pubbie]

"What do you think the chances are Daschle will decide bowing out is the better part of valor?"

Maybe. There are rumors that he wants to retire, and he just bought a multimillion dollar house in DC.

If he does retire then this is a very easy pick up for the GOP.

"Or does his wife have him by the *ahem* you-know-whats because of her lobbying career?"

His wife just likes to make money. Daschle could make plenty more money as a lobbyist than a Senator, so I don't think his wife would be opposed much to him retiring.

IF Daschle is going to retire, he's probably just postponing an announcement so that other Senators who are running can continue to fundraise.

[Jeff Gannon]

Indeed there was widespread vote fraud that was difficult to prove and harder to prosecute. It was entirely Thune's decision not to challenge the election for that reason. The risks were greater than the rewards.

The 2002 election was a learning experience. All signs indicate that Thune will run for the Senate. Janklow's situation will probably resolve without felony conviction and jail time and he will run again for his House seat.

[woodyinscc]

If we could get it up to 56 it might put the fear of God into the next group of dims up for re-election. Naah! I forgot they are rats!!

[JOE6PAK]

I am DEEPLY saddened.