U.S. Senate '04: Four Down, Two More to Go?

HUMAN EVENTS ^ | Sep 23, 2003 | John Gizzi

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

Four of the 34 U.S. Senators up for election next year have announced their exiting--Zell Miller (Ga.), John Edwards (S.C.), and Ernest Hollings (S.C.), Democrats all, and Republican Peter Fitzgerald (Ill.)

Now, signs are ominous that the next two senatorial shoes to drop will be those of Republican Don Nickles (Okla.) and Democrat John Breaux (La.). Word on the D.C. cocktail circuit over the weekend was that four-termer and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Nickles was anxious to make more money in the private sector, as was Breaux (who has been courted for every seven-figure lobbying job from legislative pointman of the Recording Industry Association of America to succeeding Jack Valenti as head of the Motion Picture Association of America).

Democratic Rep. Brad Carson, one of his party's few bright lights in the Sooner State, has signaled he will run for the Senate if Nickles bails. Similarly, Republican Rep. Ernest Istook, stalwart conservative and key Appropriations Committee Member, wants to run, while former Rep. J.C. Watts, the last black Republican in the House, is also being touted for an open Senate seat (although Watts-watchers say that he is thoroughly enjoying his current niche as chairman of Newt Gingrich's old GOPAC and corporate board member). All bets are off on the Republican side if popular former two-term Gov. Frank Keating decides to forego his current job as head of the American Council of Life Insurers and return to the hustings.

Louisiana Democrats insist that Breaux will hold off an announcement until at least November to pump up friend and fellow Democrat, Rep. Chris John, for succession; the near-certain GOP candidate is staunch conservative Rep. David Vitter. Louisiana is the lone Southern State not to have elected a Republican senator since Reconstruction.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I'm not a scholar, but unlike almost all scholars, I spent four months in Oklahoma. Oklahoma is OK. It was never a slave state, never really had a major Black population. Probably has the highest percentage of American Indians in the country. If that doesn't make you Western what does? Texas is a special case, both Southern and Western. Actually, Texas is unique... (Massachusetts is just Connecticut without Long Island Sound and a better press agent.)

[Theodore R.]

I think Terrell was unusually weak in north LA even in parishes where she was a narrow winner. She took only 57 percent in Bossier Parish, the most Republican parish in north LA.

[Verginius Rufus]

I was once told by a fourth-generation Oklahoman that Oklahoma was Midwestern, not Southern...but I have also seen a book with a title something like Southern By the Grace of God which was by an Oklahoman who considered Oklahoma part of the South. The Five Civilized Tribes were relocated from the Southeast (and at least some of them practiced slavery until 1865). I've heard that the southeastern corner of the state is very Southern in character.

[Theodore R.]

LA sheriffs are elected at the same time as the governor, not at the time of U.S. Senate or U.S. House elections. But LA people do like their Democrat sheriffs; on that point, you are right.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I've heard that the southeastern corner of the state is very Southern in character.

They do like 'ball. Outside of the South, I think Oklahoma and Massachusetts(!) are the most football crazed states in the nation. My section chief in the Army was a full-blooded Cherokee from Oklahoma, who used to call me "Billy-Bob" and say that he couldn't believe that I was a Yankee. I took it as a compliment. (Makes me feel sorry for guys in the politically correct Army of today. It was irreverant abuse - given and taken - that made the Army bearable.)

[wylenetheconservative]

I think Terrell was unusually weak in north LA even in parishes where she was a narrow winner.

You're right, she did not run up to where Bush did in north LA. But she still legitimately won the election. The fraud in N.O. and Monroe did her in. She ran great in St. Tammany and the rest of suburban N.O., which a Republican has to do to win. She ran OK in north LA, better than most statewide R's, just not as high as Bush or Foster. She won the election for goodness sakes! Landrieu stole it in inner city N.O. just like she did in '96 against Jenkins. We should riot in the streets at the number of elections Democrats steal with fraudulent votes in ghettos.

[nospinzone]

I could be wrong, but I thought there were too many that wrote off Landrieu as being finished, and then the ugly reality hit us when she pulled out by four points. Still, it's a weak showing in what used to be a rock solid Democratic state, and Terrell wasn't exactly a household name.

Vitter I think will get much better turnout, especially in Jefferson Parish, and if Jindal wins then things will look even better.

I don't think Rodney Alexander will run because he just won election and he knows his seat will probably go back to Republican if he leaves. I would rather not have another Democrat get in and force a runoff, because then if it's Vitter v John, it'll be after the presidential election and the coattails will be gone.

[wylenetheconservative]

LA sheriffs are elected at the same time as the governor, not at the time of U.S. Senate or U.S. House elections.

You're right, I stand corrected.

[Theodore R.]

I don't think that Landrieu STOLE the election. Conservatives underestimate just how popular the Landrieu family is in LA, particularly among blacks, the poor, and the downtrodden, and those on fixed incomes, etc.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"It was never a slave state, never really had a major Black population. Probably has the highest percentage of American Indians in the country"

---

True on slavery, and OK does have a relatively large percentage of Indians (although I believe New Mexico and Alaska have higher percentages). But Oklahoma was settled mostly by Southerners in 1886 (it was the Indian Territory at the time, just one big reservation), is about 8% black (higher than Kentucky), and it's history from 1907 to today is not all that different from the rest of the South. And, you must admit, Oklahomans speak with a Southern twang and consider themselves Southern, and that's gotta count for something.

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

Will Mass. ever shed TED… Kennedy? If not, what's the odds that he will expire way before Strom Thurmond did?

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Kennedy is a bitter old man who would have been president in 1972 if he could have kept it in his pants, or at least on the bridge. Kennedy is an old habit for most people here. Voting against him would be like ditching your Grandmother at church to chat up the parson's wife.

[wylenetheconservative]

I don't think that Landrieu STOLE the election. Conservatives underestimate just how popular the Landrieu family is in LA, particularly among blacks, the poor, and the downtrodden, and those on fixed incomes, etc.


She definitely STOLE the election against Jenkins. I heard reports that some inner city N.O. precincts had over 90% turnout. Vote fraud accounts for between 1/2 - 2% of the Democrat vote total in any southern election. She may have had enough legit votes against Terrell to defeat her without the fraud, MAYBE. Against Jenkins, there is no doubt her winning margin was provided by fraud. BTW, any Democrat is popular among those groups you mentioned.

[nospinzone]

1996

852,945 - Mary Landrieu
847,157 - Woody Jenkins

2002

638,654 - Mary Landrieu
596,642 - Suzanne Haik Terrell

Kinda makes me wonder where some of those Jenkins were in 02.

[nospinzone]

Jenkins voters*

[Verginius Rufus]

Some Oklahoma Indians fought on the Confederate side during the Civil War...and were punished for it afterwards by having some of their land taken away.

Oklahoma has 7.9% Native Americans, according to the 2000 census...one of the highest but below New Mexico (9.5%) and South Dakota (8.3%). Alaska has 15.6% "Native American/Alaska Native"

I think there were lots of people from all the surrounding states who entered Oklahoma at the time it was opened for settlement (1889 on)--Kansas, Texas, Arkansas. The 1890 census was lost in a fire, but the 1900 census would show state of birth for each person listed...so the information is there and maybe has been extracted from the records and analyzed.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Some Oklahoma Indians fought on the Confederate side during the Civil War"

---

That's right, I forgot to mention that.

[Theodore R.]

I agree, if there was fraud with Landrieu, it was in 1996. However, some white "moderates" refused to support Jenkins on grounds that he was "too conservative." Therefore, Landrieu was the narrow winner over Jenkins, whose career was left in ruins after three senatorial defeats, 1978, 1980, and then 1996.

[HostileTerritory]

Mid-term elections always have much lower turnout than presidential-year elections.

[Little Ray]

Zell was a better conservative than most Republicans and we're gonna miss him. His retiring is NOT a gain for the Republicans. At best, with a Republican replacing him, it is status quo.
Hope we get a decent candiate.