Schwarzenegger Leads Bustamante By 7 in New Poll, Recall Ahead 57-42 (Survey USA, Sept 23)

Survey USA ^ | 9/24/03 | Survey USA

[NYC Republican]

Schwarzenegger - 39% Bustamante - 32% McClintock - 18%

[montag813]

I'm not so sure... If he withdraws within the next week, he still may be salvagable... There aren't many superpowers on our side in CA. Perhaps Condoleeza Rice? Drier? McClintock may be able to eke in by default, and he'd get most of our support.

Good points. I would like to see Rice, if only to get her out of the Administration, where she is increasingly taking on the Powell line against Israel.

[jsbankston]

The Team of Davis & Bustamante made California what it is today and I believe Arnold will only continue the social spending habits of the current regime. This being the case, the only hope for the state and the nation at large who will have to bail California out if the spending continues is elect someone who will bring the house to order. That person is Tom McClintock and all others may as well be Gary Coleman or Gray Davis.

[montag813]

What's your opinion? What will it take for Tom to withdraw? This poll? Issa's endorsement of Arnold? Will he stay in regardless?

Putting myself in Tom's shoes, I have concluded that he must believe that pulling out wounds him for a future Senate or Governor run. It seems he believes that by showing 15% or more at the polls but not defeating Arnold (which we show as impossible on both counts), he will demonstrate that he has a sufficient following to be the front runner the next election time.

That is all I can conclude. The only other alternative is that he seriously WANTS Bustamante to win, as the "Burton conversation" suggests. I just don't want to believe that. It would make me hate the man.

[per loin]

Are Tom and Cruz boycotting tonight's appearance by Arnold?

[PhiKapMom]

Thanks for confirming what I had heard! It just made sense to see his numbers fall after taking money from the Indian gambling interest and then with the Cruz letter. That is not exactly something most Republicans would expect out of a Conservative Republican.

Didn't hurt either that Huffington called Arnold a Bush Republican IMHO!

[NYC Republican]

It will feature Schwarzenegger, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo and independent Arianna Huffington. Davis wasn't invited.

[jmc813]

That is not exactly something most Republicans would expect out of a Conservative Republican.

Neither would support of the Brady Bill and the AWB.

[PhiKapMom]

You missed the key word -- "Conservative"

[per loin]

So the boycott was just another Bustamente/McClintock lie?

[jmc813]

You missed the key word -- "Conservative"

True. MY mistake.

[Snuffington]

It makes sense for him to get out and get IN to the Arnold administration in time to have a policy impact

While there may be such activity behind the scenes, I haven't seen Arnold making any overtures toward anyone as conservative as McClintock for administration positions. It would seem to go against the centrist image he's trying to create.

I don't think the problem here is McClintock. It's too many California conservatives selling their support so cheaply. Arnold doesn't need to offer them anything to get their support. If they were more insistant that Arnold needed to meet some minimum standard - signing the no new taxes pledge, making some concessions on gun control, government spending cuts, etc. - than McClintock could serve as a decent conservative rallying point carrying considerable leverage with a Schwarzenegger administration.

At this point, I think the notion that Schwarzenegger is going to show great largesse to conservatives post-election is naive. If he doesn't need to make conservative politcy concessions to gain enough conservative support to win the election, he certainly doesn't need to make conservative appointments afterward.

I'm sympathetic to the argument that Bustamante must be defeated. But that's not the same as arguing that Arnold is a conservative, or that he intends to help the conservative movement.

[NYC Republican]

So the boycott was just another Bustamente/McClintock lie?

They threatened to boycott, but then saw that Arnold would have the spotlight to himself, as the debate would have proceeded anyway. They were called out on their bluff, and backed down.

[LS]

This is a great comment: "It's too many California conservatives selling their support so cheaply. Arnold doesn't need to offer them anything to get their support. If they were more insistant that Arnold needed to meet some minimum standard - signing the no new taxes pledge, making some concessions on gun control, government spending cuts, etc. - than McClintock could serve as a decent conservative rallying point carrying considerable leverage with a Schwarzenegger administration."

It is possible Arnold thought early on that he did not need to court the hard-core conservatives, and that he could make it without them. It is also pretty likely McClintock took a hard line until it is too late to bargain.

[DoctorZIn]

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[Snuffington]

It is possible Arnold thought early on that he did not need to court the hard-core conservatives, and that he could make it without them.

Update.... Arnold's editorial in the Wall Street Journal today contains some solidly conservative fiscal policy pledges. Sounds like he is feeling a bit of a squeeze and has decided to more actively court the conservative vote. That's a good development in my opinion.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

It's probably too late for McClintock to withdraw now and accrete any benefit. His support is stagnant and likely draining off slowly (if the internal tracking polls can be trusted). He's waited too long.

Had he done it two weeks ago, he could've withdrawn and probably even got a policy deal from Arnold (some concessions on illegals or even on the budget) to hang his hat on -- and been a rising star on the state scene. Now, he has forfeited all that to Issa, who will get first dibs on anything good to open up in the state.

The greatest danger for McClintock was to wait until Arnold starts seeing that McClintock's presence in the race is doing him no significant harm, the point where all of McClintock's leverage disappears: And McClintock's leverage has now disappeared -- if he leaves the race, he leaves with nothing to show for it. If he stays in, he has no impact. And now people are wondering if his staying might actually increase the "Yes" vote on question 1 (it probably does, though again only to some modest effect). Now he is in danger of becoming so irrelevant that people backing Arnold will urge him to stay in to give that little boost to question 1.

Question 1 is certain pass -- that will become more and more apparent the closer we get to 10/7. And so, the closer we come to the election, the more irrelevant McClintock becomes. This has been a great strategic error on his part, one that he should have seen from miles away. Timing was everything for him, and he ignored that basic fact.

In the last week of the campaign, it will get so bad for him that people everywhere will be saying "McClintock, who?" And much of his support will drain away of its own account, without anyone doing anything to help it along. He missed his moment, and used extremely poor strategy. No wonder he has no great accomplishments to show for all of his years in the legislature.

[bootyist-monk]

Arnold has done 1000s upon 1000s of interviews with the press in every corner of the globe in his 20+ year career and made over a billion dollars understanding how to play to the camera. There is no more media savvy candidate.

Since debates are as much about image as message (Norwood/Dingle, anyone), McClintamantites that think Arnold is going to be outclassed in front of the cameras are delusional.

[deport]

All he has to do is show up and not make any major gaffs..... The supreme debaters have all set the bar so low for him that it will be hard for him not to look good, imo. However this debate isn't as scripted as they'd like one to believe... The questions have been put out but after the random draw of who gets the question first it's then free wheeling with the other candidates being allowed in... So there will be a good bit of give and take, unscripted.....

You'll see more than the normal stump speech answers I beleive.....

[Wolfstar]

Bad news for Tom McClintock fans.

[Wolfstar]

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