This is the win. If the Arnold supporters polarize the Tom supporters they will lose. When this all started many Tom supporters I talked with were willing to jump to the front runner (even if that was Arnold), that compromise is fading all because the Arnold supporters could not stick to the facts and avoid bashing Tom.
Arnold knew he needed the base to win - but Arnold supporters did not take his lead. Maybe he is not such a great leader after all.
It was his race to lose. He seems to be headed that way.