New California Field Poll leaked

Field Poll | September 20, 2003 | Field Poll

[carbon14]

Recall (yes)...53%

Bustamante.....28% Schwarzenegger.26% MadClintock....14%

For comparison (Field Poll August 18) Bustamante.....25% Schwarzenegger.22% MadClintock.....9% Simon...........8% Ueberroth.......5% Huffington......2%

[stboz]

What point is there for a conservative to back him?

Get rid of Davis, then the rest of the Dims in the legislature. You have to start somewhere. The only magic wand you have is the one at the ballot box.

[thoughtomator]

The word 'liberal' in politics is a far cry from its classic meaning. (R)nold is a modern liberal, not a classic liberal. Classic liberals are called libertarians now.

[Rabid Dog]

Thanks - I'll check it out when the actual results are released. It would be great if you could repost it at that time if you are around.

[=Intervention=]

" If the right is a kingmaker it will have meaning and resonance."

Only if it is respected as a valuable contributor, which the GOP party elites do not. The right is smart not to sully itself by electing a flawed, liberal candidate.

If the right is a spoiler it has the advantage of not being involved in Arnold, Inc. That is a positive advantage, actually.

Realists are those who accept the current reality as handed to them by liberals. Conservatives are those who fight based on principle, and thus grow the movement by persuading others to join them. I can't see Arnold lighting a fire under anyone's butt to become a conservative or a Republican. Reagan did, and even Bush has. The future is for those who spread the word, not sell it out to get temporary positions of power.

[thoughtomator]

Unless (R)nold drops out and stops splitting the conservative vote, the "somewhere" is the 2004 state legislative elections. Better than the prospect of 7 years of zero conservative public policy voice through (R)nold.

[=Intervention=]

" There is no reasonably forseeable circumstance"

Again, failure of vision and unwillingness to fight for principle, so an embrace of a candidate du jour.

There is nothing that costs the GOP more elections than the above, and the choices that flow from the above.

[Seeking the truth]

You don't get to decree who is a "real" Republican or "real" conservative, and I'm sick and tired of a small group railing against the rest of us

That's laugable and downright silly.

I believe every poll on FR has show McClintock in favor of Ahnold.

The latest shows McClintock favored by 51% to Ahnold's 40%.

You are a member of the small, minority tiresome group on FR.

[monkeyshine]

The word 'liberal' in politics is a far cry from its classic meaning.

Absolutely correct. I am far more Liberal than most so called liberals, and yet, I am called a conservative.

I cherish fredom and opportunity and the Constitution, and I don't discriminate. We need freedom and opportunity in business, we need freedom and opportunity in schools, in social welfare, and in employment. We need a smaller federal government, and stronger state and local government where the people are most empowered to decide their fate.

If I had my drothers, the tax system would probably be totally reversed -- with the bulk of revenues staying in the local area where I, the citizen, could decide its use, and the smallest portion going to the feds to defend the nation and manage the federal courts.

[thoughtomator]

What reason do you have to believe that Arnold would put the lid on school spending, given that he is on the record as a promoter of further expansion of school funding?

[BlueNgold]

You may be right, McClintock may tear apart A.S. in the debate, and he may gain even more and even perhaps be the leading (R) in the race, but he will still lose without crossover support and this race does not afford him the time and exposure needed to gain that. Supporting Arnold does not mean believing he is the best pure choice, it means in many cases that he is simply, in this election, more viable. The naysayers about Reagan were wrong, or course, but the people who urged him to step away were not 2 weeks from an open election. Reagan had the time to make his case, sadly McC does not. I would love to see huge jumps in crossover support, and the Weds polls will tell the tale, but as of now McC draws his support almost solely from (R)s and in CA that means you lose in statewide races.

[Mark Felton]

"Arnold has no credibility on conservative issues and for good reason."

The Republican party has no credibility on conservative issues. A fiscally-conservative (socially liberal) outsider who can appeal to the masses is far superior to a conservative party hack who has been a career politican with no appeal to the masses.

[Snerfling]

The thing to do to avoid Cruz is to vote "no" on the recall, and choose McClintock

Who cares which way the AS and McC supporters vote? As with the stayed 9th, this issue has become a 'nullity'. The election is now a 3-way race. It's pretty clear that since McC is not going to drop out, AS has to move further towards the left to pick up even more Dem votes.

This of course will provide McC supporters with further evidence of AS's suspect conservative credentials. Problem is, since AS is going to have to run further left than he actually personally believes, he's going to be looking for revenge after the election is over.

If McC doesn't think this will personally effect him when AS is firmly esconced in the governor's seat, he is sadly mistaken. The GOP will drive him out of his seat (by backing a different candidate from T.O. and pumping in the money) and never let him hold any other partisan office.

McC is toast now matter how one looks at it.

[=Intervention=]

"A liberal is some one who promotes individual rights of the common man, supports property rights and freedom of religion (not from religion). You know what a socialist is, just about the opposite."

The environmental liberals do not respect private property.

The ACLU liberals do not promote freedom of religion.

Liberalism in general does not support the individual rights of man, but rather the rights of groups at the expense of the populace. I'm surprised to read such a spirited defense of liberalism here on FR, where most recognize liberalism for the pernicious political philosophy it is. It does not support the things you say it does, and has not since the '60's. For you to state as such is wishful thinking, agitprop, or massive ignorance.

[Roscoe]

After Arnold loses the recall, perhaps he should run for Congress against Dana Rohrabacher or David Dreier.

I'd enjoy that.

[thoughtomator]

McClintock is the only hope you have of regaining those lost freedoms. Arnold doesn't support a single one, and is the most likely candidate to get your taxes raised, as the GOP anti-tax coalition would have a harder time opposing a Republican than a Democrat.

[BlueNgold]

And of course we all know how accurate online polls are .... lmao

[Seeking the truth]

If the right is AS's kingmaker, the right will have his ear when it comes to implementing reform

Ahnold had a chance to win over some conservatives in September at the California Republican Assembly Convention.

He was invited.

He did not show up.

Great leadership skills. Great reaching out to the active base.

But Ahnold will go on Ophra & Larry King to preach to his converted!

[=Intervention=]

"t he will still lose without crossover support and this race does not afford him the time and exposure needed to gain that."

Remember that lack of vision thing? Here we go again...

[deport]

I believe every poll on FR has show McClintock in favor of Ahnold.

---

Yep kinda like Keyes or Buchanan...... look were both of them are........

[thoughtomator]

Arnold's leftism and socialism are the result of his true beliefs. He had ample reason and opportunity to court conservatives, he was begged to do so, and he emphatically passed on the opportunity.

The best result is if (R)nold runs left and cuts into the Busty vote, and the conservative vote coalesces around McClintock. Next best is leaving Davis in office and preparing for the 2004/06 elections.