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Clark-Hillary 2004? A winning ticket.
National Review Online ^ | Sept. 18, 2003 | Peter Augustine Lawler

Posted on 09/18/2003 6:32:50 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds

The serial-primary method used by our parties to pick presidential nominees is chaotic and unpredictable. Everyone knows that party elites have no real power any more, and nobody really knows how our involvement in Iraq and the stock market will look next year. Candidates also sometimes self-destruct because of personal foibles that would not be clear this early in the campaign. Nonetheless, predictions must be made.

Some facts that are probably facts: All the Democratic candidates except Dean and Clark are stillborn. They will be wiped off the map by crushing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire. Dean is the candidate of the most-articulate faction in the party — the upper middle-class, bourgeois-bohemian (bobo) crowd. He appeals to West Wing fantasies and Vietnam antiwar nostalgia, and especially to those on the Left who believe that Clinton demoralized the real (as opposed to the new) Democratic party. He presents himself effectively as an "outsider"; he has the image that perennially suckers primary voters. And he really is an outsider; he would radically reform the Clinton-dominated party establishment. It's hard to see how he wouldn't do very well among the disproportionally bobo (and very white) primary electorates of Iowa and New Hampshire.

That doesn't mean that Dean can get nominated, much less elected. Bobo candidates (such as McGovern or even Dukakis) don't fare well in general elections. They exaggerate the nation's cultural divisions, and so they rally regular guys with no strong partisan affiliations to the Republicans. George W. Bush, one of the most-regular (including religious) guys ever to the president, would have a strong personal advantage over the smug and snotty Dean. More than that, African-American voters don't like bobos; Clinton — who speaks with the cadence of a populist black preacher — won because he understood that so well. Ethnic Catholic northern, and white Protestant southern voters — still a large part of the party's electorate — also are repulsed by the intellectual elitism — including the lack of patriotism — of what was until recently called "yuppie scum."

So it seems to me that all Clark needs to do to prevail after the first couple of primaries is to be the viable alternative to Dean and be enthusiastically endorsed by both Clintons. And Bill and Hillary are clearly raising their visibility with that job in mind. They are the Democratic establishment, and they can't risk having a nominee they can't control. On Bill's word, African-American voters will flock to Clark as the alternative to the bobo, and the pro-choice Catholics (Democratic Catholics) will have found one of their own. Clark will remind many gullible Democrats of the pseudo-integrity of West Wing's Catholic — President Bartlet, and a new fantasy will develop. (Clark, like Bartlet, was also a professor economics for a while!) Clark is also more of an outsider than Dean; he has no political experience at all! And all astute Democrats will choose him over Dean as the man who could really beat Bush, as more a Clinton than a McGovern. Clark is actually Clinton with some Eisenhower added; it's hard to accuse a general of lacking personal courage or ignoring issues of natural security. Lieberman, the national-security candidate at this point, will endorse Clark when he drops out fairly early in the primary season. Clark, more than Clinton, will be a formidable candidate in the south.

Clark has to be regarded as the favorite for the nomination, and it would be a mistake at this point to regard him as an underdog in the general election. The main stumbling block to his success would be Hillary entering the race. As far as I can tell, her judgment is that the risk for her at this point is too high. She surely secretly hopes for a narrow Democratic defeat next year to clear the way for her in 2008. But political results can't be engineered that precisely, and don't be surprised if she doesn't adopt the amazingly low-risk strategy of making herself available as Clark's running mate. That would make her the presumptive nominee in either 2008 or 2012, depending on the general's skill and fortune.

Why would the senator give up her all the influence that comes from having a safe seat from one of our largest states? The former First Lady could hardly be fulfilled as a mere senator; her real ambition is to be president. And whomever Clark picks as his vice-presidential candidate — if the ticket is elected — would have immediate advantages in the struggle to succeed him. Hillary can't count on that person not catching on. And no insider Democratic senator has won the party's presidential nomination under the present primary-nomination system. If Mrs. Clinton wants to be president, she'll want to be on the Clark ticket.

— Peter Augustine Lawler is Dana Professor of Government at Berry College. He is author of Aliens in America: The Strange Truth About Our Souls.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; bobo; clark; clinton; dean; electionpresident; hillary; hillaryclinton; lieberman; losers; manchuriancandidate; maryhelp; wesleyclark
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This deserves a semi-barf alert, but I decided to withhold. I think he actually has the strategy and logic about right, especially the "appeal of Dean" to "Bobos" and how Clark could be the top alternative.

Where he is wrong is: if Clark is leading and Bush looks vulnerable, you can count on the Old Witch stepping in to take the top slot -- I wouldn't be surprised if Clark steps up and ASKS her to take it with him settling for the VP slot. This has Clintonism written all over it.

1 posted on 09/18/2003 6:32:52 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
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To: ReleaseTheHounds

2 posted on 09/18/2003 6:34:15 AM PDT by CholeraJoe (This is my tagline, this is my gun. One is for FReeping, one is for fun.)
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
For the last couple of months I have predicted that Hillary will run with Clark as her VP. I stand by that prediction.
3 posted on 09/18/2003 6:35:08 AM PDT by sheltonmac (The difference? One party believes in big government; the other party has a jackass for a mascot)
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To: CholeraJoe
CJ: Wow! Quick reply! I like your barf-bag... and your tagline. Reminds me of Fort Jackson!
4 posted on 09/18/2003 6:36:00 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
Someone at NRO has been reading FR threads . . . . .
5 posted on 09/18/2003 6:36:16 AM PDT by TexasNative2000 (You may disagree with me, but I will fight for your right to be in error.)
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
B-B-B-But Clark is our hero.

He's a leader! (with this bunch, it doesn't take much)

He is going to save the Democratic party. (for Hillary)

sarcasm /off
6 posted on 09/18/2003 6:37:17 AM PDT by Only1choice____Freedom (If everything you experienced, believed, lived was a lie, would you want to know the truth?)
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To: sheltonmac
Yes, it makes sense. Why do so many posters here insist that she will not run or that she will not be a VP candidate?
7 posted on 09/18/2003 6:37:58 AM PDT by Consort
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
The barf bag graphic has served me well. Anyone who hasn't been through military basic (Or seen Full Metal Jacket) will look at my tagline and go, "Huh?"
8 posted on 09/18/2003 6:38:38 AM PDT by CholeraJoe (This is my tagline, this is my gun. One is for FReeping, one is for fun.)
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
Why would the senator give up her all the influence that comes from having a safe seat from one of our largest states?

Because Guiliani is rumored to be running for her senate seat in 06. A senate loss in 06 to Rudy would dash her presidential hopes.

9 posted on 09/18/2003 6:38:59 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: Consort
"Why do so many posters here insist that she will not run or that she will not be a VP candidate?"

Because the idea is the silly notion of those still addled by the Clintons 3 years after Slick left office. Hillary is an extremely polarizing figure who would sink the Democrat ticket in a year they have a good chance of winning.
10 posted on 09/18/2003 6:41:22 AM PDT by WarrenGamaliel
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To: CholeraJoe
Someone (I forget who) is using: "This is my tagline. There are many like it, but this one is mine."
11 posted on 09/18/2003 6:42:43 AM PDT by dighton (NLC™)
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To: staytrue
Because Guiliani is rumored to be running for her senate seat in 06. A senate loss in 06 to Rudy would dash her presidential hopes.

Bingo.

12 posted on 09/18/2003 6:44:46 AM PDT by TexasNative2000 (You may disagree with me, but I will fight for your right to be in error.)
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To: Consort
Why do so many posters here insist that she will not run or that she will not be a VP candidate?

I believe she'll run, as long as she's assessed that Bush is beatable. However, Hillary Broadass Clinton will not run as VP. It's not in her nature. (Unless the presidential candidate is terminally ill, with only months to live.)

13 posted on 09/18/2003 6:44:50 AM PDT by PBRSTREETGANG
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To: WarrenGamaliel
Didn't they say about the same thing when she was running for Senator?
14 posted on 09/18/2003 6:46:22 AM PDT by Consort
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To: PBRSTREETGANG
"I believe she'll run, as long as she's assessed that Bush is beatable. However, Hillary Broadass Clinton will not run as VP. It's not in her nature. (Unless the presidential candidate is terminally ill, with only months to live.)"

Whoever has Hillary as his V.P. should watch his back. AF1 might develop mechanical problems, like engines detaching from the wings (happens all the time...). Heck, if I were Pres with Hillary as veep, I'd have a food taster. "I, Claudius" got nuthin on her.

15 posted on 09/18/2003 6:46:59 AM PDT by boris (The deadliest Weapon of Mass Destruction in History is a Leftist With a Word Processor)
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To: PBRSTREETGANG
However, Hillary Broadass Clinton will not run as VP.

Is that a definite or just an opinion?

16 posted on 09/18/2003 6:48:30 AM PDT by Consort
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
Gen Clark, you mean the guy who jumps over buildings, faster than speeing bullets, faster than a speeding train? Wow! Ummmmm, whats his name again?
17 posted on 09/18/2003 6:52:43 AM PDT by gulfcoast6 (Lord, you are the potter, I am the clay, please mold me every day)
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To: ReleaseTheHounds

18 posted on 09/18/2003 6:53:39 AM PDT by EggsAckley (........I LOVE pushing the abuse button.........)
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To: boris
You've got that right! The Ankle as VP would have the president Arkancided making her the president. Which would also allow her to choose her own VP - hello Bubba. The 'toons would OWN the White House. (At least until the military decided enough was enough.)
19 posted on 09/18/2003 6:55:32 AM PDT by 11B3 (Two choices: Republican or Communist. You know it's true.)
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To: sheltonmac
For the last couple of months I have predicted that Hillary will run with Clark as her VP. I stand by that prediction.

Our local talk radio host came up with an even scarier scenario yesterday...Clark as President and Bill Clinton as VP. They said it was within the bounds of the Constitution (???), and that if something happened to Clark, Bill could serve as President again (since he would be "appointed", not elected). Hillary could then run in 2012, giving her more time under her belt as Senator. As someone above stated, the only kink in this plan might be Guliani running against her in '06 and winning, the talk radio host did not take that into consideration.

20 posted on 09/18/2003 6:55:43 AM PDT by ravingnutter
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