Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Corin Stormhands]

You are simply showing your ignorance. I've got enough oak trees around my house that if ONE falls, and it can do it in 50 mph winds, we could have serious damage or injuries.

I live right in the path of the storm. No, maybe it's not as serious as they once thought. But it's bad enough.

You are serving no purpose here. Go away.

[xsmommy]

You won't die...not even a slight chance.

i am cutting you slack, RW, because you are young. you are in no position to guarantee people's safety. like i said last evening, it behooves you not to speak definitively. you are a Christian man, you do not speak for God. just LISTEN TO YOURSELF and how you are coming across. i realize you may not care, but i am pointing this out to you because i think you can be brought around to not being a jerk!

[Corin Stormhands]

How many hurricanes have you lived through in your, what 19 years, 20 years?

[Howlin]

Same here; we're thinking of moving the car!

Bad winds aren't coming here until 3!

[Woodstock]

Of course I have a very good friend who moved from Maryland to Liberal, Kasas this year. She experience more rain and wind in two weeks than we usually have here.

[AppyPappy]

It would be nice of you guys wouldn't carry arguments across threads. It makes them hard to read. Let's just stick to the storm.

[Woodstock]

Of course I have a very good friend who moved from Maryland to Liberal, Kasas this year. She experience more rain and wind in two weeks than we usually have here.

[NCjim]

Here too... the rain and wind are much stronger in the last 10 minutes. I guess the 3:00 to 6:00 peak was on the mark.

[MEG33]

Thanks.Alison,downgraded to a tropical depression ,hung around the Houston area and dumped 30" in 2001.We lost a lot of research in the flooded basements of the large Medical center here.Really bad flooding.I think LA,got it ,too.I have a healthy respect for what the weather can do.

[Woodstock]

Of course I have a very good friend who moved from Maryland to Liberal, Kasas this year. She experience more rain and wind in two weeks than we usually have here in months. But we are soaked here on the east coast. Rain and wind are bad mix right now.

[PrivateIdaho]

Talk about "Holy Crap", I'm watching the live MSNBC feed from Virginia Beach... looks like it's getting pretty wild.

Link: MSNBC Live Video

[steveegg]

Does anyone know if the storm track over the next 1-2 days has been updated or changed?

No it hasn't (11 am track prediction)

[xsmommy]

oh that's funny! I am the problem? LOL!!!!

[Woodstock]

I saw Virginia Beach too. Glad I am not there. It will be amazing to see the morning-after pitures.

[Howlin]

It would be even nicer if people didn't come on these threads and mock those of us who are concerned.

[rwfromkansas]

All I was saying was that the sustained was supposed to be 105 and the highest sustained is not even close.....the highest gust is not even to that level.

The NHC punted on this one and didn't make the tough calls.

That doesn't mean I don't understand that this storm still is rough. I even pointed out how folks in mobile home parks could be in serious trouble and yet Howlin still spouted the hate. Looking at this scientifically even for the slightest moment is not okay on this thread I guess. It is utterly ridiculous that the scientific facts of what is going on are off-limits just because the storm is still occurring.

But, I am going to shut up since I don't want to start another argument.

I hope you get through it okay.

[AppyPappy]

No but many of us didn't see the argument yesterday so we have no idea what the issues are. Let's just stick to the storm.

[Overtaxed]

Parkwood made the map?

[Woodstock]

MOVE the CAR!

[Dog]

Agree.

Everyone stick to the storm.