Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Howlin]

Thanks. Man, what an eye!

How is it down there?

[glock rocks]

Kill Devil-N.C.Avalon Pier (check the bottom right :o)

[Doohickey]

When I was a kid, we had one that weighted *ahem* 23 pounds. Both parents were in the 4-7 pound range LOL!

[Hatteras]

[Slip18]

"i will hate being without FR!"

We will hate it without you!

Monitoring TWC.

May God be with all of you today -- and always, of course.

[Mad Dawgg]

SO where did the NE edge strike? Was it Hatteras?

[Howlin]

ROFLMAO. You know how much I love stuff like that! I just loved it when the 4th ID went into Baghdad and put up that Georgia Bulldog flag at Saddam's palace.

People are SO witty!

[NCjim]

I think the eye has not come in yet.

[steveegg]

Just hope the phone doesn't go at the same time.

[Howlin]

Wow, that would be 3 of her!!! Was it all hair?

[Gabz]

10-4

It's only been raining for about 90 minutes....but wind is starting to pick up

[NCjim]

Here is the radar pic from 20 minutes ago:

Morehead City radar

[Slip18]

Good luck, CD. Check in when you can.

[Mad Dawgg]

WOW, it looks like the top of the swells are reaching the bottom of the pier at Avalon.

[glock rocks]

gettin close...

here's a good radar loop

[steveegg]

Mornin' everybody. That's a large eye, and thankfully Izzy didn't pull a Hugo on us.

[NCjim]

The black dot below the word 'Jacksonville" is the actual radar location at Newport which is, as I mentioned earlier, just inland from Bogue Banks across from Emerald Isle.

[CobaltBlue]

Here in Fairfax nothing to report other than it's very cloudy, the sky is dark, and there is a little wind, not much. My Weatherbug says gusts up to 14, coming from the SE. No rain yet.

[Gabz]

Thanks dear.

Wind is starting to pick up here and it is starting to get a bit darker.

[glock rocks]

Very best to you. Stay alert!