Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[My Favorite Headache]

Wtnt43 knhc 180857
tcdat3
hurricane isabel discussion number 49
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 am edt thu sep 18 2003

Wsr-88d radar data from morehead city shows what looks like a
classic concentric eyewall formation. With a poorly-defined ring
of convection near the center and a stronger ring 40-50 nm out.
Earlier aircraft data indicates that the strongest winds are
associated with the outer ring. And that there is no wind maximum
associated with the inner ring. The last aircraft fix showed a
pressure of 957 mb. And maximum flight level winds during the
mission were 109 kt. The initial intensity remains 90 kt.

Isabel is moving 325-330 degrees at about 12 kt. A general
northwestward motion should continue for about 24 hr between the
developing mid/upper-level trough over the southeastern united
states and the deep-layer ridge over the northwestern atlantic.
After that. Isabel should turn northward in response to the large
deep-layer trough moving eastward across the northern united
states. All dynamical guidance agrees with this scenario. And the
official forecast track is basically an update of the previous
package.

Little change in strength is forecast before landfall. Although
there is still a slight chance of slight strengthening. After
landfall. Isabel should weaken and gradually become extratropical.

A new aircraft should be arriving at the center shortly.

Forecaster beven

forecast positions and max winds

initial 18/0900z 33. 1n 74. 7w 90 kt
12hr vt 18/1800z 35. 0n 76. 4w 90 kt. Inland
24hr vt 19/0600z 37. 9n 78. 2w 60 kt. Inland
36hr vt 19/1800z 41. 4n 78. 5w 45 kt. Becoming extratropical
48hr vt 20/0600z 47. 0n 78. 0w 35 kt. Inland extratropical
72hr vt 21/0600z 59. 5n 72. 5w 30 kt. Inland extratropical
96hr vt 22/0600z. Absorbed by extratropical low




[Vinnie]

The first rain band is just East of Raleigh. By the time I go to work it will be starting to rain, and continue for who knows how long.

[My Favorite Headache]

[My Favorite Headache]

[My Favorite Headache]

[My Favorite Headache]

President Bush keepin tabs on Isabel

[bd476]

The National Data Buoy Center lists the following report from Station 41002, a moored buoy located 250 nautical miles East of Charleston, South Carolina:

Update: 5:00 am EDT 09/18/2003

Wind Speed: 46.6 kts (9-17 4pm 36.9 kts) [9-16 4pm 23.1 kts]

Wind Gust: 60.2 kts (9-17 4pm 44.7 kts) [9-16 4pm 29.1 kts]

Wave Height: 28.5 ft (9-17 4pm 23.9 ft) [9-16 4pm 22.3 ft]

Atmospheric Pressure: 28.9 in (9-17 4pm 29.6 in) [9-16 4pm 29.9 in]

Pressure Tendency: - 0.09 (falling) (9-17 4pm 0.11 in (falling rapidly)) [9-16 4pm 0.03 in]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41002&unit=E&tz=EST

[My Favorite Headache]

[My Favorite Headache]

[Amelia]

Batten down and stay safe!

[Vinnie]

During Hugo I listened to a Hurricane Hunter talking to McDill on shortwave. It was interesting.
Since then I've only hear a few digital broadcasts.
What little monitoring I've done with this one has produced zip.

[NCjim]

Thanks for the ping! I'm up but not necessarily awake. :-) Off to make coffee and breakfast... back in a bit.

[bd476]

Sometimes the raw data is more astonishing than photos themselves, not dissimilar to my golf handicap.

National Data Buoy Center Station FPSN7 located at Frying Pan Shoals, NC reports the following:

5:00 am EDT 0900 GMT on 9/18/2003:

Wind Speed (WSPD): 51 kts

Wind Gust (GST): 57 kts

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.59 in

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in (falling rapidly)

Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.3 °F

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=FPSN7

Here's a look at a quieter day sometime not long ago at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina:

[bd476]

Wow MFH, I feel it's such a great privilege, an honor and most fortunate that we are able to view some of the very same satellite images as our dear President George W. Bush.

[glock rocks]

That's because, if you look very closely, those photos behind the president have FR logos in the bottom corners. You heard it here first.

[bd476]

Okay, the water is getting a bit high around this pier. I hope it survives the large waves which appear to be coming in.

[Miss Marple]

Fox showing shots of preparations in DC. President leaving for Camp David (taking Laura and the dogs), workers boarding up windows on the Capitol, etc. Simon Marks is reporting. He will be interesting to hear if he stays in DC for the storm...he is British.

[djf]

Is it gonna miss Hatteras and skim up the coast?

[bd476]

"That's because, if you look very closely, those photos behind the president have FR logos in the bottom corners. You heard it here first."

Of course, that makes perfect sense!

(Wouldn't that be cool if it were true?)

[bart99]

Morning All.....

Hey MFH - YOU started this thread (actually the one before this til it became too big) yesterday AM. Have you gotten ANY sleep.

Appreciate the photos and updates!!!!

B.