Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Wtnt33 knhc 180839
tcpat3
bulletin
hurricane isabel advisory number 49
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 am edt thu sep 18 2003

. Large category two isabel bearing down on the north carolina
coast.

A hurricane warning remains in effect from cape fear north carolina
to chincoteague virginia. Including pamlico and albemarle
sounds. And the chesapeake bay south of smith point. A hurricane
warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area. Generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the hurricane warning area.

At 5 am edt. 0900 utc. The tropical storm warning is extended
eastward from sandy hook new jersey to moriches inlet new york. A
tropical storm warning is now in effect north of chincoteague to
moriches inlet. Including delaware bay. A tropical storm warning
remains in effect south of cape fear to south santee river south
carolina. For the chesapeake bay from smith point northward. And
for the tidal potomac.

At 5 am edt. 0900z. The center of hurricane isabel was located
near latitude 33. 1 north. Longitude 74. 7 west or about 155 miles
south-southeast of cape hatteras north carolina. This is also
about 145 miles southeast of cape lookout north carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph. And this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track. The center of isabel is expected to make landfall
in eastern north carolina today. However. Conditions are
deteriorating over a large area well before the center reaches the
coast. Hurricane conditions should begin spreading onto the coast
in the hurricane warning area later this morning. Sustained
hurricane-force winds could also extend inland up to 150 miles
along the path of isabel.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph. With higher gusts. This
makes isabel a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
hurricane scale. Little change in strength is likely prior to
landfall. And weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the
center. And tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345
miles. Noaa buoy 41002 located about 65 miles southwest of the
center recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. 28. 26 inches. Noaa
buoy 41002 recently reported a pressure of 978. 8 mb. 28. 90 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels.
Along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves. Is
expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the
coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels
is expected in chesapeake bay and the tidal portions of adjacent
rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches. With locally higher
amounts. Are likely in association with isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern north
carolina and southeastern virginia today

Repeating the 5 am edt position. 33. 1 n. 74. 7 w. Movement
toward. Northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds. 105 mph. Minimum central pressure. 957 mb.

For storm information specific to your area. Please monitor
products issued by your local weather office and statements from
local emergency management officials.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national
hurricane center at 8 am edt followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am edt.

Forecaster beven

According to the weather models I've seen, there is no expectation that this is going to turn right. There is a powerful high level ridge that it is staying to the west of.

Here are some computer model tracks:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

Here is the meteorology "discussion":
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200313.disc.html

I quote, "A general northwestward motion should continue for about 24 hr between the developing mid/upper-level trough over the southeastern United States and the deep-layer ridge over the northwestern Atlantic. After that...Isabel should turn northward in response to the large deep-layer trough moving eastward across the northern United States. All dynamical guidance agrees with this scenario..."

Historically, hurricanes near this track have swerved out to sea sharply to the right, and there is no way of knowing for sure since we didn't have the instrumentation, but they probably weren't contending with being on the west side of a "deep layer ridge" - and may in fact often have been on the east side of it, and couldn't make it across. Isabel is being shepherded toward us by this one.

History charts: http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_climo.gif

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