Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Interesting Times]

looking like Isabel may spin down to borderline cat 1/trop storm based on latest from NHC of 80-85mph sustained winds currently and still no deep core convection to speak of.

The convection remains light, but it still has winds. As for the previous flight, I doubt they're finding the top winds every time in a system of this size...

URNT12 KNHC 180401
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/0400Z
B. 32 DEG 06 MIN N
73 DEG 55 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2703 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 137 DEG 109 KT
G. 043 DEG 050 NM
H. 955 MB
I. 14 C/ 3068 M
J. 16 C/ 3081 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SW
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF977 2313A ISABEL OB 23
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 0346Z.

[Iowa Granny]

Are you in Hesston?

[honeygrl]

Is Cantore actually FROM that area? He keeps saying "we" like he's one with the natives.

[teletech]

Here is a live Web Cam at Wrightville beach in the Southeastern corner of North Carolina. Click on the > to start the Web Cam. The surf is starting to kick up a bit.

[honeygrl]

Apology accepted. :)

[Gabz]

YOUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're scaring me now.

[honeygrl]

"And then guns. "

Don't forget ammo.

[Rain-maker]

Loaded for me just fine.

Browser has to have java and activeX on,
since it is an applet controlled animation.

[fatima]

Calpernia, "added the viking kittens to the top right corner".Did not find them.

[Howlin]

I don't know how to advance it. Sorry I wasn't clearer.

[rwfromkansas]

At Sterling College, to the northwest of there. I grew up in McPherson, only about 20 miles north of Hesston (Sterling isn't far away either).

[Gabz]

I'm going to dream about ending up in the Chesapeake all night now - or dream of having bay front property!!!!

All because of this stupid $itch in the Atlantic Ocean.

[Sandy]

They are calling for 30 - 50 MPH sustained winds HERE tomorrow

In Raleigh? Starting at what time?

[jwh_Denver]

They are calling for 30 - 50 MPH sustained winds HERE tomorrow and 2 - 4 inches of rain.

Howlin, what an approiate name at this time. Doesn't sound like much out of the ordinary, but be safe along with all the people in your area.

[honeygrl]

amazing image. looks like the eye is closing up.

[Gabz]

Hey - I'm the one that put beer on both my list AND hubby's list.

And then I went and got more today!!!!!

[Eva]

For the first time ever, I agreed with Ellis Hennican. He was discussing the HS football team sodomy and told O'Reilly not to call it hazing. The man was irate and rightly so.

[honeygrl]

"Can you think of a worse week not to be able to watch the Weather Channel? "

The weather channel kinda sucks anyway. The net has way more stuff than they give you on TWC.

[Rain-maker]

[Howlin]

This one has sound.

http://www.wrightsville.com/bchcam.htm