Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

8PM local update for Maryland / Virginia (posted at storm2k... link):

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Hurricane Isabel weakens as it moves farther inland. Isabel made landfall at 1 PM EDT this afternoon in the southern outer banks. However it's been a very active day and historic also. 75% of southeast Virginians are without power tonight. That includes most of Virginia Beach and Norfolk, Virginia as well. Norfolk, Virginia also had a tornado comfirmation earlier today in the downtown area. In addition portions of the VAB fishing pier went into the Atlantic courtesy of 20-25 foot angry seas and the wind still continues to blow to near hurricane force in gusts in Virginia Beach this evening. Thus more power outages, perhaps over a million people without power in southeastern Virginia before all is said and done.

A hurricane warning remains in effect north of Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. The hurricane warning will likely be replaced to tropical storm warnings by 11 PM tonight.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point including Annapolis and Baltimore Harbor and the Tidal Potomac. The coastal waters affected by tropical storm warnings are from Surf City, NC to Cape Fear, NC and from Chincoteague, Virginia northward to Moriches Inlet, New York including Delaware Bay and the New York Harbor.

At 7 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 36.5 north, longitude 77.5 west or very near Roanoke Rapids, North Carolina.

Movement is northwest at 20 mph. A gradual increase in forward speed and a turn towards the north northwest is expected overnight tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are now down to 80 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is anticipated over the next 24 hours and Isabel is expected to become extratropical north of the mason dixon line on Friday. However very storng winds with gusts to hurricane force are likely over the coastal Chesapeake Bay, southeast Virginia and the mountain ridges west of DC and Baltimore. This will cause massive power outages due to downed trees and powerlines. If you can avoid travel in the mid atlantic region tonite, you've made the right call. Just forget travelling tonight because most places without power won't have power back on for several days and in some cases a few weeks such as the case in southeast Virginia. To have 75% of se Virginia without power is quite devastating and unfortunately it may take several weeks to get everyone online down there.

In Maryland and Virginia, bay storm surge flooding of 4-8 feet above normal tide levels is expected along with large and battering waves. Rainfall amounts of 2-6 inches is expected in the path of Isabel. Isolated tornadoes are possible in the right front quadrant of the circulation. A tornado was sighted earlier this evening in downtown Norfolk, Virginia and likewise in Snow Hill, Maryland, a weak tornado was sighted there also. Sustained winds of 45-60 mph with gusts to 75 mph is expected in southeast Virginia through this evening before tapering off. Sustained winds of 30-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph is likely across Maryland as well as Washington DC. Many power outages are likely in this situation!!! Stay indoors overnight tonight and ride this one out in the mid atlantic. A nice weekend is ahead folks!! Unfortunately there will be lots of cleaning up to be done. There are trees down in central Maryland with 50 mph gusts here near martin state airport as well.

More updates later.

Jim

Minimum central pressure has risen to 965 mb or 28.50 inches.

southern Delaware is not the problem - northern Delaware is.

+++++

That's an interesting synopsis. I got your freepmail by the way. I know NOTHING about Northern Delaware. And you are right about the Sussex county Dems. The Repub chair told me they always vote with the Repubs.

Understand that I was (and I guess still am) looking at friendly repubs and Dems from the perspective of the national fellows. The thought of Sussex county Repubs being all friendly like with the likes of John Dean, Kerry, etc., just gives me the willies.

However, I got my finger on the pulse here in Sussex county and I am certain the demographic here is changing and changing rapidly. There's a lot of retirees here, and folks like me who moved to a slower lane from a more liberal state. But hear me out....all of this collaberation and hand-holding in Sussex county is right on the brink of destroying the county. There's no leadership whatsoever. How can there be, everyone's in bed together making nicee-nice?

I think it's time for some new blood and I am quite ready to begin the ascent to God knows what. But I got a lot of financial backing and could do it if I was a mind. I start getting a mind when I see things going hopelessly wrong. Sussex county is a great place, by me, to live. But without a little leadership it will soon become a complete morass. I'm going somewhere here. I don't know where, or when. Maybe I'm going to oblivian here but so be it. Leaders tend to step up when needed and though I've not felt before any compulsion to get involved so actively in politics, I feel it in my bones here.

We shall see.

What happens when that cold front in the midwest hits what's left of the hurricane?

Actually, there was a front along the eastern seaboard that Isabel plowed into yesterday. Referring to your graphic, you can see the front still draped around it in a a big "S" loop sweeping down around Newfoundland and up and over Isabel. It actually flattened Isabel out along one edge when it hit, and it's still protecting the southeast from Isabel's effects.

Then you can still see the other high pressure area way to the east that was guiding Isabel when it was moving due west in the mid-Atlantic.

So I think these fronts act sort of like flexible barriers.

... all observations uncertified!

There was an Aggie who decided to rob a bank, but when he got to the bank there was a time lock on the vault. Out of desperation he decided to kidnap the bank presidents son and hold him for ransom. Of course being an Aggie he had to have the kid write the note for him. He told the kid to write a note to his father stateing that he was being held ransom for $10,000.00 and the young man did. However, after the note was written the Aggie search his hideout only to discover that he had no stamps to mail the note. In desperation he told the kid to take the note to his father explaining that he had been kidnapped and was being held for ransom. Again the young man complied. Two days later there was a knock on the would be bank robbers door. Out side stood the bank presidents son with a big sack of money and another note from the bank president telling our Aggie what a low life he was, that didn't he realise that the bank president himself was a fellow Aggie.

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