Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
Shep said something about a Ranch something hotel washed into the ocean .. damage to many other hotels damaged
That's DEFINITELY gay code for something.
no, just some roof damage on the video.
Really. NTTAWWT.....
Gay as hell.
Naw, he's just gay. Now, Elton John is really gay.
Crap, a good size one just landed on my van."
MKM, just read this. Hope you are safe and sound. God Bless and protect you, your family, your loved ones, your pets and your community.
Update from Swan Quarter...
I talked with inlaws again. They may have experienced a bit of the eye, as the wind abated for a while. Judging from the track of the storm, they almost surely experienced pretty close to the maximum winds of the storm, near the northeastern or eastern eyewall. So (just a guess) they may have received 80-90 mph winds. Winds there have now shifted from easterly to southerly, and should be out of the southwest soon. They have diminished considerably -- maybe 40-50 mph as of a few minutes ago.
Good news and bad news. The good news is that structural damage in the area, per their observation, and by phone calls to friends and neighbors, is rather minimal -- some damage to mobile homes, some missing shingles and the like on other houses, and of course some downed trees (not a lot, though). And there was never any concern about personal injury. Power still out, and most likely will remain out for some time; phones are fine.
But the bad news -- the tidal flooding that they feared, and then began to feel confident that they had escaped, has come about, suddenly and in a pretty big way. Their yard has a foot of water in it, as well as somebody'd rowboat bobbing around. Their house is built high enough so that it won't flood, but others won't be as fortunate. There's a nice 50-year-old house near them whose first floor had never flooded until Floyd -- but now it has again. The larger concern is for the huge commercial farming operations in Hyde County. The water is a combination of rain, canal water, and brackish bay water. Exactly how salty it is will determine the extent of long-term agricultural damage. It should recede fast, and they're still hopeful that the long-term damage won't be too great; certainly almost anyone with crops in the ground now will lose them, as the "high ground" in the vicinity is about 5 feet above sea level.
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