Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
I just got off the phone with inlaws in Swan Quarter, NC. That's the county seat of Hyde County, linked by ferry to Ocracoke, which is also in Hyde County. In Swan Quarter, winds have begun to switch from easterly to southerly. It appears the eye will just miss Swan Quarter to the west, though it's possible that they'll see the eastern edge of the eye. So they're beginning to experience the "northeast quadrant" near the eye, the most severe portion because forward speed of the storm adds to the circular wind speed.
They have no power, and they have a pecan tree down (not close to the house; folks know from experience not to plant trees close to houses), but otherwise no real problems. Phones (land lines and cells) are fine. Like a bad nor'easter, they say, but not as cold. A "mandatory" evacuation was ordered, ignored by almost all.
Their primary concern has always been tidal flooding as opposed to wind. Not because of crops this year (it's been so wet, most farmers don't have much of a crop to lose [corn, soybeans, vegetables, winter wheat -- too far east for tobacco and cotton]), but because they feared saltwater contamination which can ruin fields for years. They are now confident that won't happen. There's also a good deal of forest land down there, both state forests and tree farms, which I would expect will receive some damage. But they're pines, which are much more resiliant than the hardwoods we have here in the Piedmont.
Their attitude so far: "no big deal." I'll call again to see if the eye passed over them.
You got that right Gabz .. falling trees can easily take out the side of a house.
Stay safe down there
MKM
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