Posted on 09/15/2003 6:12:23 PM PDT by SamAdams76
When Unilever PLC, the British food giant that owns Slim-Fast Foods, announced in July that U.S. profits had dropped 23 percent, it quickly pointed an accusing finger at the Atkins diet, the trendy weight-loss plan high in protein and low in carbohydrates. Atkins, Unilever's chairman explained, has set off shock waves in consumption that have cut Slim-Fast's profits, and there's no way to fight a fad.
Suddenly, Wall Street is blaming the diet craze for all sorts of economic upheavals, and the deafening buzz is almost enough to drown out economic sense. Time, the Economist, USA Today, and countless media outlets—marveling at the idea of slimming pork chops and heavy cream—have touted the commercial impact of the Atkins plan. The diet has been blamed for falling wheat prices and booming beef sales.
But is there really an Atkins economy?
Three months ago, the British Federation of Bakers made headlines when it announced that bread sales have declined 2 percent per year since Dr. Atkins' book was re-released in 1997. Wheat consumption has dropped from 147 pounds per person to 139 pounds in the past six years. And in May, the Tortilla Industry Association held a high-profile seminar titled "An Industry in Crisis: The High-Protein, Low-Carb Diet and Its Effects on the Tortilla Industry."
Atkins-friendly foods, on the other hand, are booming. News reports have credited Atkins for an increase in U.S. beef sales in 12 of the past 14 quarters. Prices on cattle futures have climbed from 65 cents per pound in 2001 to 82 cents per pound today (suggesting the beef market has grown by $3 billion in 3 years). Consumption of bacon and eggs are at 10-year highs. Beef jerky sales are up more than 40 percent in the past two years, and pork-rinds have tripled their market share to $496 million per year.
Entrepreneurs are rushing to join the party. Atkins Nutritionals Inc., the food company started by Atkins before his death this year, sold $100 million worth of 90 low-carb products last year. Weight Watchers is introducing a low-carb pasta. Michelob hawks its new beer Ultra with the slogan, "Lose the carbs. Not the taste." (Michelob refuses to specify how the beer is selling but says it has "exceeded expectations.") And in California, New York, and, improbably, Texas, you can get freshly prepared Atkins meals delivered hot to your door. No one can specify the size of the Atkins market, but experts estimate it's at least $1 billion per year.
"It's rare that a diet will have an impact on national trends," said Harry Balzer, the author of the annual Eating Patterns in America. "Atkins is the exception."
But Atkins is winning more credit than it deserves, say economists. It's an example of how media excitement about a cultural trend leads to misinterpretation of an economic trend.
The evidence most commonly cited to prove the Atkins diet is roiling the economy is a study by the Natural Marketing Institute that claims 25.4 million Americans—12 percent of the adult population—have tried the Atkins diet. But those numbers deserve a little skepticism. NMI's executive project director, Joe Marra, said the company doesn't specifically ask about the Atkins diet. Rather, under the methodology used by NMI in its survey of 2,000 families, anyone who forgoes bread for a few days in an attempt to lose a few pounds is considered an Atkins dieter.
But almost everyone else, including experts from the consumer information giant NPD Foodworld, pegs the number of Atkins dieters at closer to 3 percent of the nation's adult population—about 6 million people—based on statistical sampling.
The Research Institute on Livestock Pricing reports that the average American per-capita consumption of beef has increased 1.8 pounds per year since 1997—another 525 million pounds per year. If the 6 million Atkins dieters are consuming all that additional beef, then they are eating 87.5 pounds more meat per year than they previously did, which would mean they're now eating steak and burgers at every meal except breakfast. And that's just beef. Pork, chicken, eggs—if all the increases in Atkins-friendly foods are due to Atkins dieters, it's a wonder anyone has lost weight: They would have to be eating almost nonstop. (And those who note the surge in Atkins-friendly food tend to ignore an equally vigorous countertrend: Sales of Krispy Kreme donuts grew an amazing 25 percent last year, to $492 million, with cookies, potato chips, and other Atkins-verboten products following suit.)
So, why the increase in demand for beef, pork, and chicken? Atkins probably plays a small part, but it may have much more to do with everyday economics than any fad diet. Convenience, more than anything else, is what drives consumer trends, say experts. "Time is of the essence," said Balzer. "The trend in the last 15 years has been towards more convenient options. Cereal bars, toaster pastries, frozen breakfast sandwiches—that's where the growth has been."
"Today's family has two working parents," said Wayne Purcell, professor of agricultural and applied economics at Virginia Tech.* "They want something easy to prepare, and the meat industry is finally providing that."
Meat is suddenly convenient. Beef Magazine reported that last year more than 500 new "beef convenience" products were launched, and sales of frozen and heat-and-serve beef have hit $1.5 billion, up from virtually nothing a decade ago. For the first time beef is transitioning from a commodity to a branded product, with quality improving as a result. "Ten years ago people just bought steak, and it might be pretty tough," said Purcell. "Now they buy Omaha Steaks filet mignon, ready to heat up in minutes. Companies are putting out much better meat in order to compete."
But if the Atkins diet is supposed to help America lose weight, the push for convenience has the opposite effect. Economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago persuasively argue that one of the biggest reasons for the nation's current obesity epidemic is that food is now so much cheaper and easier to prepare. "Forty percent of the recent growth in weight seems to be due to agricultural innovation that has lowered food prices," write Darius Lakdawalla of the RAND Corp. and Tomas Philipson of the University of Chicago.
It's simple supply and demand: When supply becomes more prevalent, demand is easier to satisfy. We're not eating more steak because of the Atkins diet, they say. We're eating more, simply because we can.
Make a little extra at suppertime, and pack it for the next day's lunch?
Most of the fast-food places have salads that work well, but they aren't hot.
I really don't see how hard that would be. It could be done by using a 4-6 oz grilled meat portion teamed with a non starchy veggie in a butter sauce or something like that...
I know how to do it, just like most things need the $$$$$$ lol...
Some days I think I walk several miles in high heels, but most people don't find that comfortable. ;-)
Since I walk some 75 miles a week, I go through my shoes pretty quickly. I find myself replacing my shoes every two months. It's an expense that's well worth it though. I get the New Balance running shoes for about $80 a pair (cheaper ones just don't hold up). But when you consider the amount of money people throw at Weight Watchers and other weight loss clinics or programs, I'm getting off cheap.
Right now my music is keeping me occupied during these long walks. Especially the "marathon" weekend walks I take. During my 11 mile walk this morning, I listened to huge choral works by Monteverdi and Bach along with some Handel. Other days it might be hard rock or country. If I ever get tired of discovering new music however, I'll get some books on CD and rip them to my MP3 player. (I still find plenty of time to read anyhow.)
Amazing. I know that most people from over there walk miles a day on flip-flops. Don't know how they do it, but I guess it's just something you get used to.
Anyway, here is a humorous story. At the beginning of the summer, when my walking/diet programme was in full swing, I decided to drive to the beach for a change of pace. So I kicked off my shoes and proceeded to walk down the beach. Three miles later, I start to realize that my feet are starting to hurt really bad. I then realized that the beach sand had not only rubbed the callouses right off my feet but were now starting to rub into my skin. So here I am in my bare feet at about 6:30 in the morning some three miles from my car and sneakers.
It was an excruciating walk back. I tried walking in the water to ease the pain but it didn't help much. When I did make it back, my feet were bleeding in several places and I was in agony. I could hardly stand up on them. I thought I would be sidelined for sure. But I bought some bandages and wrapped my feet up for my walk the next day. It was painful but I made it through and within a week, all was better again.
Now maybe I could condition my feet to do this, but walking six miles in my barefeet is something I'll never do again.
As an Atkins advocate, I'm about to have chicken parmigiana with an extra helping of cheese, a lettuce wedge with tomato and blue cheese dressing, and a Rancho Zabaco Zinfandel.
Staying steady here at 188 lbs., size 34 waist, and feelin' good!
Anybody can do this eating plan. Anybody!
Had a dinner of grilled steak kabobs with jalapeno peppers and onions myself. Also finished off a bottle of Wyndham's Bin 444 cabernet (from Australia).
Walking barefeet a little bit on the beach every day will toughen your feet to where you can walk all day on the sand comfortably, even pleasurably, but you will have to buy larger shoes to accomodate the callouses.
I was in Viet Nam for the month of August and walked everywhere. One needs soles there but any sort of uppers should be no more than enough to hold the soles to your feet. It is simply too hot for anything else. In 68-70 I wore GI boots in Nam and don't know how I did it.
MOST people "over there" do not walk miles a dayon flip flops, not any more, Most people over there who go any distance at all rido on small motorbikes.
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