Future of Digital Books Lies with Babies, Boomers

Yahoo News ^ | Sun Sep 14,10:45 AM ET | Franklin Paul

[Mad Dawgg]

Future of Digital Books Lies with Babies, Boomers

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Don't slam the cover on digital books just yet.

Readers hungry for a good page-turner will still turn to bookstores and libraries, but cheaper computers and changing consumer habits suggest that electronic books, or e-books, still have a future.

To be sure, that future is years away, particularly after Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:BKS - news), the world's largest bookseller, last week shook the nascent market by shutting its eBooks (news - web sites) store. Daniel Blackman of barnesandnoble.com said downloadable books have not lived up to their hype.

"There is a market ... but it has not materialized to the point that we will be able to support the business," he said.

As with digital music, multiple books -- say, Shakespeare's collected works -- can be stored on a memory card the size of a stick of gum, making them popular with travelers, students and professionals. They are read on hand-held devices running operating systems by Palm or Microsoft, or on a PC or notebook computer.

E-books may find their niche with tech-savvy youth unfazed by the notion of browsing literature on a screen, and the growing legion of retirement-age readers, according to Richard Doherty, research director at Envisioneering Group.

"Two audiences that will benefit best are young people who loathe the idea of a library ... and aging people who want the convenience of large type on demand," or freedom from lugging heavy hardcover tomes.

For now, e-books are an afterthought in the publishing world. Less than 500,000 electronic books were sold in the United States in 2002, compared with more than 1.5 billion printed books, estimates research firm Ipsos-Insight in Chicago.

GROWTH EXPECTED, SLOWLY

Back in 2000, downloadable books enjoyed the same kind of ebullience lavished over all things Internet, with research firms projecting sales of about $250 million by 2005.

That excitement waned after a brief period of hype, which saw the likes of Microsoft Corp.(Nasdaq:MSFT - news), Palm Inc. (Nasdaq:PALM - news), Adobe Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:ADBE - news), Gemstar and Franklin Electronic Publishers Inc. (AMEX:FEP - news) developing gadgets on which one could read stories or software to mimic the look of a printed page.

Seen as too heavy, too expensive and not as much fun to read as paperbacks, tablet-like e-book devices failed to catch on. Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. (Nasdaq:GMST - news), which aspired to be the world's top e-book supplier, quit the business in July and stopped selling the gadgets.

"The typical American consumer isn't ready for an e-book," Barrie Rappaport of Ipsos said. "It doesn't fit in their lifestyle at this point. As far as reading goes, people like to touch paper."

Moreover, while major publishers have committed to e-books, concerns about piracy -- which has ravaged the music industry -- may limit the number of new titles that are made available.

Still, Palm, Microsoft and Adobe continue to improve their respective reader software, which are free. Palm, Adobe and retailer Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq:AMZN - news), which also sells downloadable books, said they plan no major strategic changes.

'GREAT FUTURE'

"We think that in the long term, e-book technology has a great future," said Adobe's Russell Brady. "Market acceptance has not taken off quite as quickly as was predicted, but we are certainly continuing to invest in this area."

They are encouraged by the evolution of pocket-sized computers and lower notebook prices, providing more screens on which e-books can be read. More than 20 million handhelds have been sold and new models sell for less than $100.

"(On Wednesday) we sold 2,000 e-books. It was the largest retail day at Palm Digital Media in 2003, and we are having the largest month ever," Ryan WuerchMost, chief executive of privately held Web retailer PalmGear, said last week. PalmGear recently bought Palm Inc.'s digital publishing unit.

He estimated that PalmGear, whose offerings range from "Beowolf" to best-sellers by Stephen King and Al Franken, will sell some 1.3 million e-books over the next 12 months.

To further raise awareness, sellers must cut prices, according to IDC analyst Susan Kevorkian.

It is too early to declare the demise of the digital book," she said. "(But) to raise awareness there needs to be competitive pricing in place to get people to adopt the technology."

[Mad Dawgg]

I would be lost without my Palm M515! Once I got it my book buying habits changed forever!

I live in an area where there are no bookstores! NONE! It is like a living hell because for me to get really good books I must either buy from Amazon and wait for my stuff or drive 90 minutes plus to get to a decent bookstore.

Now I can go online and have my stuff in minutes and alot of it FREE! Stuff like "The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire." Always wanted it but it was usually over 70 dollars, but now I have the entire thing for nothing! Same goes for all of the works of the Bard and Poe and Plato and on and on!

What is even better is alot of the authors are figuring out that they can go direct to the public without some New York Publisher's permission! I've found some really good scifi that would've never seen the light of day if it had to go the route of traditional paper publishing!

Word to the wise though on buying an ebook platform! Make sure it has a color screen and has good illumination. Monochrome readers are just not as good as the color and some are downright unreadable.

My Color Palm is wonderful! It can store over 30 books as well as games and some great organizing software! I never leave the house without my palm and my wife loves it because now I can read in bed with the lights off!

Another nice thing about Palms and ebooks is you can read on you computer as well. You get eletronic bookmarks and annotation features and alot of the techinical books use hypertext for important terms and definitions!

Since I've got my Palm I've downloaded and/or purchased over 100 books, while only buying about 6 regular books in the same time period.

E-books for me are a must and I can't wait till the Library figures out how to get involved!

[discostu]

The future of e-books lies with a format that's at least as easy on the eyes as paper. All of the current screen technology used is more tiring that paper, once they get something figured out that's even or better THEN e-books will take off, but not one minute before.

[ZeonZaku]

I think it is publishing companies that are putting the brakes on e-books. Just look at all the problems with music companies and MP3s. I love e-books; I have many including the coveted LOTR trilogy. However I see another user’s verses RIAA situation.

[UB355]

DOA

[treadstone71]

I've had the exact opposite experience with color and B&W screens. I have an iPaq 3100 (B&W) and 3600 (color), and much prefer the 3100 for reading ebooks. Maybe the newer screens are better, but for now, it's black and white for me.

The big problem I see with ebooks catching on is that, with few exceptions, the price is the same as the hardcover edition. If I'm going to pay 25-30 dollars for a book, I'll just get the hardcover. That's why I've done most of my ebook buying with Baen Books. For under 20 dollars, I can get 4 to 5 unlocked ebooks in my choice of formats.

[Mad Dawgg]

"I think it is publishing companies that are putting the brakes on e-books."

No Doubt! The large publishing houses are in a tizzy over E-books and PODs (print on demand) Self Publishers! Lots of money is starting to go directly to the authors who are self publishing e-books!

When one considers that Publishers are just glorified distributors and e-books can be distributed to millions of people with the click of a mouse, then you can understand why the big New York Publishers are not at all excited about the prospect of e-books becoming popular!

[Mad Dawgg]

"The big problem I see with ebooks catching on is that, with few exceptions, the price is the same as the hardcover edition. If I'm going to pay 25-30 dollars for a book, I'll just get the hardcover. That's why I've done most of my ebook buying with Baen Books. For under 20 dollars, I can get 4 to 5 unlocked ebooks in my choice of formats."

Yeah most of my ebooks were under 6 bucks! Alot of the authors are retaining their eletronic book rights and going direct and thus they can lower the prices. The people who are trying to keep the prices up are the publishing houses because if e-books start coming out at 5 bucks and a new hardback is 30 well anyone can figure the logical next step for the book consumer.

[bayourod]

If the eBooks industry really wanted to jump start sales all they would have to do is buy the exclusive rights to the next Harry Potter book.

[js1138]

The future of e-books lies with a format that's at least as easy on the eyes as paper. All of the current screen technology used is more tiring that paper, once they get something figured out that's even or better THEN e-books will take off, but not one minute before.

It's coming withing the next five to ten years. All the necessary technologies exist in the lab and will eventually be perfected. LED displays that can be printed on flexible sheets, transparant LED displays -- all things that need no backlight.

And the kicker will be scalable fonts for us ageing baby boomers. Instant large type.

I suspect that audio readers are coming in five to ten years. I suspect that it just a matter of time before there is a standardized format for encoding voice inflections. Famous actors will then licence their voices to "read" any book published in the encoded format.

[discostu]

If I had a dollar for everytime somebody said something cool was "coming within the next five to ten years" I wouldn't have to work. Wired had a story on some cool e-paper that was supposed to usher in e-books YEARS ago. Whatever the technology is when it gets here I'll check it out, but I'm not believing any predictions about something coming in "five to ten years".

[Age of Reason]

I love the smell of real books--new or used.

And I avoid buying softcovers.

The best thing about e-text, however, is the ability to search-out phrases and words.

I would love to see every hardcover book with a pocket on inside the cover, containing a CD of the entire text of the book.

Better would be to have the entire text of the book on some kind of plastic card instead of a bulky CD--one would then swipe the plastic card through a reader connected to your PC to upload the contents to you hard disc for future reference.

(Or perhaps the cover itself could have the e-text embedded in a magnetic layer of some sort: One would then move a wand over the book to upload the text. Simpler than a card or CD, which likely would be lost or separated from the book should it ever appear in a used bookshop)

I have never been able to find in which book it was that I read the quote that runs something like this: "Have we now sunk to such a level that it has become the first duty of an intelligent man to restate the obvious?"

Was it H.G. Wells who said that?

(Come to think of it, time to search the web again for that quote--maybe I can find it there; last time I tried was a few years back, and it didn't turn up.)

Anyway, the best use of technology would be to BRING DOWN THE COST OF HARDCOVER BOOKS!

It's insane what new ones cost--and a real indication of the loss of prosperity that one of the best things in life is costs so much.

One would think they were still written by hand.

[Snuffington]

To me, the best near-future commercial possibility doesn't lie with e-books. It lies with publishing-on-demand.

That's the notion where you don't print a book until it's sold. As a publisher, you wouldn't need to carry any inventory, yet your catalogue of offerings will include every title you ever published. As technology improves, the publisher is no more than a copyright title holder and royalty distributor. All the printing and distribution could be done at the retail level.

As others have pointed out, the problem with e-books is the same problem with all other digital content distribution models. While this is still shaking itself out in terms of technology and law, I can't see it attracting serious investment. Too risky.

[js1138]

No one can predict when a technology will become practical. Two years ago all the big names in ePunditry were saying that LCD monitors had reached their lowest price points for a long while. I'm typing this using a 17 inch $329 BenQ monitor with excellent specs and clear, readable type at 1280x1024. CRTs are doomed. Regardless or their superiority in certain applications, they will join vinyl LPs (and camera film) in the hall of expensive niche products.

[jacquej]

I am a pre-boomer ('43), and had an ebook reader, and enjoyed it, but found it limiting. So, abandoned it for the Palm515, and love that. Easy to hold in bed, and read when dh is asleep, and I am not...

I find downloading much easier, and have the choice to read on my computer screen or my palm.

But!!! I love to listen to books on my iPod as well. This leaves me free to sew, knit, cook, quilt, etc... I also find that since I am too fast a reader, that listening forces me to slow down, and concentrate on details that I otherwise might have missed. I aslo can listen to books in bed when I have trouble sleeping, without disturbing my husband, and find that it makes it easier to go back to sleep, by taking my mind of my stuff, and listening to a really good yarn!

Again, when downloading an audible book, you can also listen over the speakers on your computer, and several members of the family can listen together... and another option is the ability to burn the books to cds, so you can listen to them on any cd player...

Any of you interested please go to the following link and sign up. You can download free software to listen to an audible book, and they have listening devices that can be purchased through them. A week or so back, I think they were offering a $100 discount on an iPod.

Any freeper here who signs up and puts my user name down in the proper spot helps this lil ol granma out a lot, and if you stay signed up for 3 months, it really helps! Sp, please do not forget to put in my user name, which is the same as here...

jacquej

and the link?

http://www.audible.com/adbl/store/welcome.jsp

[MineralMan]

I've had a couple of e-book readers around the office, and hated them all. Until they come up with one that is as easy to hold as a paperback book, as easy to read as print on paper, and that doesn't need battery power, I'll keep buying paper books.

[Physicist]

I read the Project Gutenberg version of Middlemarch on a Palm Pilot. The only problem was that it cost me as much in batteries as it would have to buy the book new.

That said, I am a great believer in electronic texts. I spend a fair amount of time volunteering for Project Gutenberg via Distributed Proofreaders.

[discostu]

I don't doubt that ebook will be here eventually, but after hearing that solar power would be a viable alternative en mas energy source in "five to ten years" for 30 years, that cancer would be cured in "five to ten years" for 15 years, and that offices would be paperless in "five to ten years" for 20 years I'm simply never going to buy into a 5-to-10 prediction again. Eventually of course all of these things will come to pass and the last people to make the 5-to-10 prediction will be hailed as geniuses with amazing forsight, but I'll be around to remind people that they were just the latest guy to make the exact same prediction (not that anyone will listen, nobody ever listens).

Actually LPs and CRTs are hanging pretty tough. BestBuy has a 17" CRT for $99 bucks. And LPs are running about the same price as cassettes (in the world) over on WhatAreRecords.com, given the hord of turners on the market these days I think LPs are making a comeback, but I'm not making any prediction.

[js1138]

Text readers are greatly improved from the "Forbin Project days." I suspect most of us will live to see the day when it is unnecessary to have some record audible books. I'm sure good actors and readers will be better than computer readers, but most printed text will never be recorded.

[BlazingArizona]

The best thing about e-text, however, is the ability to search-out phrases and words.

Textbooks are an ideal first market for e-books. They're heavy, they're expensive, and you only need them for a short time, after which they have to be replaced with other textbooks. AND - e-text is searchable. Since students already carry laptops, there's no need to wait while customers buy another new gadget to read the format.

I'm sure I'm not the first to think of this application. I bet publishers are knowingly shunning this obvious market because they fear copying.

[js1138]

I still have nearly 500 LPs tucked away, but I don't listen to them. Every once in a while I digitize one of the ones that isn't available on CD. A couple of months ago I found a spoken word recording of a Virginia folk tale that my father told for years. It was recorded at 78 rpm (approximately), and I no longer have a turntable that plays 78s. I digitized it at 33 rpm and used Sound Forge to speed it up. Lots of cool things already here.