Breaux's future spurs speculation

The Advocate, Baton Rouge ^ | 9/11/03 | GERARD SHIELDS

[Amish]

Breaux's future spurs speculation

By GERARD SHIELDS gshields@theadvocate.com Advocate Washington bureau

WASHINGTON -- Though U.S. Sen. John Breaux has yet to determine whether he will seek re-election next year, speculation is already rising about who may compete for his seat. Both U.S. Rep. David Vitter, R-Metairie, and U.S. Rep. Chris John, D-Crowley, have stated an interest in the job should the Democrat choose not to run.

"Should the opportunity present itself to run for Senate, it is something I would have to consider," Vitter said.

Political analysts say other contenders could emerge, including candidates for governor who fall just short.

"It's a wide-open shot," said John Maginnis of the Louisiana Political Fax Weekly. "It's a free for all."

Last week, Breaux dismissed speculation that he would seek the coveted job of becoming a lobbyist for the Major Motion Picture Association of America.

Breaux left his future in the Senate up in the air, saying he will wait until after the Louisiana governor's race to decide whether to seek re-election in 2004.

The primary for governor is Oct. 4, with a runoff election set for Nov. 15.

Breaux's comments have political watchers speculating that he may step down if a Democrat wins the governor's race.

A Democratic governor could appoint a fellow Democrat to serve the remainder of Breaux's term in the Senate.

"Everybody would hate to see John Breaux go," Maginnis said. "But they would love to see a Senate race."

In addition to Vitter and John, Maginnis listed Democratic Treasurer John Kennedy of Mandeville and former state Senate President Randy Ewing, a Quitman Democrat running for governor, as possible Senate contenders.

Also mentioned is New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, a conservative Democrat.

Kennedy and Nagin couldn't be reached for comment. Calls to their offices were not returned.

Ewing said he's focusing strictly on the governor's race.

Yet T. Wayne Parent, an LSU political scientist, agrees the field of candidates could be crowded.

"Open Senate races don't come around often," Parent said.

John, a fellow conservative Democrat who hails from Breaux's hometown of Crowley, would likely have a leg up in being named to fill Breaux's term should he exit, Parent said.

"From the outside, that seems to make sense," Parent said.

"John seems like the logical person," he said.

[Melpomene]

We need to keep Nagin in New Orleans!

[Kuksool]

Do you think Nagin's endorsement of Ewing for Governor would have a significant impact on the jungle primary next month? Could this action by Nagin give Jindal a chance to make it into the run-off?

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

Did some keyword searches on Breuax and found this tidbit.

I think right now it looks like Breaux is leaning towards retirement.

If he does retire, Vitter is very ready to run for the seat.

An open seat in La would compensate our failure to get a strong challenger to Lincoln in Arkansas (Though Win Rockefeller is still thinking about running saying there is a "3 in 10 chance" he will run against Lincoln.)

[Theodore R.]

Very good analysis. John would be the "Breaux of 1986," and Vitter another "Henson Moore," I suspect. Foster is also anti-Vitter and would probably put his organization behind John.

Nagin also endorsed Mary Landrieu in 2002.

[Theodore R.]

No Republican can win a contested race in LA anymore without winning Lafayette Parish, and John would hold Lafayette Parish, even if G.W. Bush wins it handily over Dean or some other Democrat. John could even endorse Dean and still win his home parish, I would imagine.

[Theodore R.]

My vague recollection is that Suzanne Terrell won Lafayette Parish over Landrieu but by a margin too small to make a statewide difference.

[Pubbie]

"No Republican can win a contested race in LA anymore without winning Lafayette Parish, and John would hold Lafayette Parish, even if G.W. Bush wins it handily over Dean or some other Democrat. John could even endorse Dean and still win his home parish, I would imagine."

I wouldn't be so sure.

John wins comfortably in Lafayette, but he hasn't had terribly stiff competition against a quality GOP opponent.

Vitter would be a very strong GOP opponent and should be able to (Narrowly) win a majority in Lafayette if he runs a good campaign.

As to Foster screwing up Vitter's candidacy, the White House will immediately anoint Vitter as their main man.

If the WH backs Vitter to the hilt, Foster won't go after Vitter because screwing up Vitter would be tantamount to declaring war on the entire Washington GOP Establishment.

Foster will stay out of this.

As to

[Pubbie]

"John is still very strong down there, and he is for all intense purposes a Breaux Democrat. I think Vitter would be strong in Lafayette Parish, but if I were a betting man, I say John takes the parish, though narrowly."

Yes but he's only been up against token opposition (In recent years).

Vitter can take the Parish (Narrowly).

"Well Foster's term is up this year, and seeing how the Landrieu-Terrell runoff went, I'm not sure he cares."

Foster still has future political aspirations (Probably against Landrieu in 2008).

If he tries to screw up Vitter the GOP Washington Establishment will be very angry.

[Pubbie]

I've read that Foster still wants to stay politically active in some form or fashion.

I was just floating the idea of him running against Landrieua as a hypothetical.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Well, my two cents on the matter is that carrying Lafayette Parish is necessary, but not sufficient, for a GOP statewide victory in LA. I think Vitter would beat John in Lafayette, since (i) John won't be an incumbent Representative running for reelection (remember John has never faced a Republican in a House race where he wasn't the incumbent, since in his initial House race the top Republican candidate failed to make the run-off), (ii) John has never faced a Republican with as much appeal as Vitter, (iii) the race will most likely be "nationalized" because it will take place on an election year with President Bush atop the ballot, and (iv) if the "jungle primary" is declared unconstitutional like the WA and CA "open primaries" were, we probably won't have a December run-off decided on state, as opposed to national, issues. However, John won't have to carry Lafayette to win, since he should run well ahead of Clinton in Cajun Country as a whole (and remember that Clinton carried the Cajun parishes), and his moderate conservatism will help him stay afloat in the Baptist parishes up north. But, of course, Vitter will clean up in the suburbs around New Orleans. I think the race will be decided by Baton Rouge and its vicinity. In any event, a John vs. Vitter matchup should be a real humdinger, and could be decided in December even if John and Vitter are the only Democrat and Republican running in November.

[Pubbie]

"(i) John won't be an incumbent Representative running for reelection (remember John has never faced a Republican in a House race where he wasn't the incumbent, since in his initial House race the top Republican candidate failed to make the run-off),"

John hasn't had stiff competition for his seat.

Also the Bush Bounce will create an extra hurdle for John to jump over.

"In any event, a John vs. Vitter matchup should be a real humdinger,"

For sure. It will be a nail bitter right up to the end - but I still would bet on Vitter.

[nospinzone]

Vitter's my congressman and I'll back him 1000% if Breaux retires. As was mentioned before, Vitter will clean up in the New Orleans suburbs, which is a huge plus for him. It'll be a nailbitter, but I think we can take this one home.