HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....

National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

[John H K]

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[mhking]

The new British model is out; it shows the eye hitting the coast somewhere just north of Hilton Head; Charleston & Savannah would catch the brunt of it.

[mhking]

D'oh! They've updated again; now it's shifting further north on that model. The GFDL model has it staying out to sea and going north parallelling the eastern seaboard, the others don't project to that point. The BAM Medium model doesn't show a northward turn at all. That model would at least point the storm toward north-central Florida.

[dennis1x]

doubt its cat 5 right now....looking a little ragged, outflow not very good in a couple quadrants....

looking forward to getting the data from aircraft who are queued up to enter the storm for the first time this afternoon.

[dansangel]

Not good. I hope St. Simons is still there for our planned Fall getaway.

:-(

Thank you for this update. We have been tracking it because of family in FL and were under the impression it was going to swing north. This is the first time I've seen this particular model.

Heads up backhoe!

[dirtboy]

It's looking a bit healthier there, but outflow is still restricted to the SW a bit. I'll now say that the Hurricane Hunters will find winds to be 150 mph when they get out there. Still nothing to sneeze at...

[Rebelbase]

You need to put some money on your mouth. Anyone here wanna hold the dough so MFH can back up his prediction of a no hitter?

I'm in for $20.

[Dog Gone]

I'm in for $50. This puppy is going to come ashore on the USA.

[Dog Gone]

Apparently my link updates to the most recent shot of the hurricane, because the eye has cleaned up considerably since I first posted it. It's still in the process at the time of this post.

[Rebelbase]

That eye is incredible. Its about size of lake Okachobee.

[dirtboy]

And it looks like the outflow to the SW is resuming, and the CDO looks like a dang Lifesaver around the eye.

[dirtboy]

It's rare for the models to agree with each other that closely four days out.

[PJ-Comix]

But it's not gonna hit us.

Are you sure? The latest track stats show Isabel not only not moving north but even moving very slightly south. The forecasters say that the high pressure zone north of Isabel will be weakening in a few days, thus allowing it to move north. I'll believe it when I see it. Fortunately, Isabel is moving forward at only 9 MPH so it has a lot of time to change directions before reaching the USA.

[PJ-Comix]

looking forward to getting the data from aircraft who are queued up to enter the storm for the first time this afternoon.

On the Weather Channel they just confirmed that the winds were 160 MPH sustained winds with gusts up to 195 MPH.

[dennis1x]

1st recon flight just radiod an impressive 920mb pressure....max winds around 125-130 mph. so it has probably weakened a bit since yesterday (no confirmation yesterday from aircraft of cat 5 status).

[dennis1x]

fyi..the weather channel just pukes up the latest report from the NHC....which we can follow on weatherundergound.com.

the 11am advisory put the winds at 160mph which is what the weather channel will report until 5. . with this recon data finally in the 5pm advisory will probably have the winds down a little, assuming future recon passes dont find a higher reading on the winds.

[dirtboy]

1st recon flight just radiod an impressive 920mb pressure....max winds around 125-130 mph.

MPH or knots?

[PJ-Comix]

I thought they said 160 MPH. BTW, I am wondering if the Space Flight movie at the IMAX theater showing images of earth from the Space Shuttle has images of hurricanes. If so, then I definitely want to see it. One of the most beautiful sights is a hurricane as seen from space.

[Dog Gone]

Five day forecasts are basically worthless. They change wildly every 12 hours, or at least the models which NOAA bases them on do.

The key to this hurricane is something you mentioned earlier on the thread. It's whether the high pressure in the Atlantic holds, or is moved by the trough coming through the US.

This northwesterly turn that everyone assumes will occur isn't happening yet, and the longer that is the case, the more certain it is that this storm will hit us.

[Hatteras]

"Liquor was left off the list."

I distinctly recall standing in the line at the Kroger on the way home from work on that Thursday evening in Cary in 1996 as the winds were beginning to pick up. A couple hours earlier, Greg Fischel finally decided to give in and predict that Fran was going to cause major damage in the Raleigh area. All around me were people with multiple carts filled with the last of the bottled water, bread and batteries. Me? I'm standing there holding a case of Corona and a couple of limes.

[RightWhale]

It wouldn't be economic to build windmills that would be efficient in such a high wind that might get used once in ten years. Maybe if they were portable so they could be moved to stay with a hurricane, but they would need to be anchored to tractors on the seabed. Could be done, technically speaking.