HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....

National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

[John H K]

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Vigilantcitizen]

"(I figure I can cook on my grill, power or no.)"

Besides making cornbread and bacon, this is why I maintain a complete set of cast iron cookware, including a dutch oven.

Power or no, a man's gotta eat.

[dennis1x]

ummm..sorry....mountains have nothing to do with movements of hurricanes.

the real reason your scenario plays out is due to prevailing high and low pressure systems that move off the east coast of the US....if a storm is far enough south the storms can bypass being picked up by a front and can be steered westward by Carribean high pressure.

[dirtboy]

From the sat photos, it looks like it's starting to weaken just a bit, I wouldn't be surprised if the hurricane hunters get out there today for the first time and find winds back down to about 145 mph.

Even if it weakens to 120 mph as it gets within 400-500 mph of the East Coast, that is extremely problematic. Recall that Hugo was a Cat 3 storm as it approached South Carolina, and then jumped quickly to Cat 4 as it went over the Gulf Stream as it closed on the coast. The same could happen with this system if it closes on the coast anywhere south of Wilmington, NC.

[PJ-Comix]

Too bad there isn't some way to harness some of the energy of a hurricane. I read somewhere the equivalent hydrogen power contained in a typical hurricane but I forgot the stats. I bet just 1% of the power of a hurricane would be enough power to meet the needs of a major city for a year. Has anybody ever come up with ideas on how to harness some of the power of a hurricane?

[Euro-American Scum]

As a person who survived hurricane Camille in 1969, I don't wish these kind of storms on anybody! No, wait a second....I wish them on the Clintons! Yes, that would be worth the wreckage and distruction if it would wipe them out!

I was at Fort Benning, GA at that time and was ordered in to help with the cleanup in the aftermath of Camille. 200+ mph winds, they told us, with higher gusts. Pass Christian, Gulfport, and other communities in the area were totally destroyed. I'd never seen that level of devastation anywhere, before or since. Even the debris was blown away. Can't imagine anything worse heading this way than that storm was.

But it would be an appropriate way for the Clintoons to go out. The ultimate wind storm hitting the ultimate wind bags.

[PJ-Comix]

ummm..sorry....mountains have nothing to do with movements of hurricanes.

Are you sure? Hurricanes passing over mountain systems almost always weaken.

[dirtboy]

Are you sure? Hurricanes passing over mountain systems almost always weaken.

However, that doesn't affect steering.

[dennis1x]

didnt say that if a hurricane moved over mountains (or any land, but mountains even moreso) they wouldnt weaken; however they have no large scale affect over the movement of the storm.

[NautiNurse]

Good news is that we'll have the first air recon flight this afternoon. 5:00pm update should be interesting.

[SC Swamp Fox]

then jumped quickly to Cat 4 as it went over the Gulf Stream

As I recall Hugo moved up the coast from a point east of Jacksonville, sucking up energy from the gulf stream as it did. Hurricane warnings went up in Jax, then Savannah, then Charleston, then Georgetown. The "predicted path" cone was revised northward every couple of hours. Lots of folks were caught totally off guard.

The strengthening wasn't predicted either. Lots of people just shrugged it off as "a small one". "Besides," the old-timers said, "they never hit here."

[PJ-Comix]

Here is an online state I found about the energy of a hurricane. Too bad there is no way yet to harness this energy. If there were, it would be a great non-polluting source for power:

In one day, a hurricane makes enough energy to provide the U.S. with electricity for six months!

[NautiNurse]

The water vapor sat has been most fascinating the past two days. The eye is 35 miles across. That's incredible! Click on the image for full screen view:

[PJ-Comix]

Wow! That eye is perfect in terms of definition.

[dirtboy]

The outflow is starting to be affected, so we'll probably see some weakening. And with strong storms, the smaller the eye, typically the stronger the system. That's why I could tell it was intensifying yesterday, the eye was shrinking throughout the day. Today the eye is larger today and the outflow is not symmetrical, so when the hurricane hunters get out there for the first time, I would guess they'll set the sustained winds at about 145 mph. But fluctuations of 20-30 mph over the course of a day aren't that unusual for very strong hurricanes. If this sucker is still a Cat 3 if it gets within 400 miles of the coast, watch out, it could really intensify as it goes over the Gulf Stream.

[Howlin]

35 miles across? I'm waiting till 5 PM today and then I'm going to the store!

[wimpycat]

I'm going shopping tomorrow. I needed batteries anyway.

[Howlin]

I'm making a list right now!

[NautiNurse]

I'm making a list right now!

Don't ask me why, but I still receive the WRAL noon email news.

Officials Advise NC Residents to Prepare for Hurricane

[Dog Gone]

Right now it appears that the eyewall is in one of those cycles where it breaks down and reforms. I think this picture is less than an hour old, but I don't want to post it here because of the size.

Click here

[My Favorite Headache]

Absolutely beautiful textbook CAT 5 storm. Perfect.

But it's not gonna hit us.