HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....

National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

[John H K]

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[PJ-Comix]

Hey! All the scenarious on that link you posted show Isabel smacking straight into South Florida. The other forecasts I've seen show Isabel veering towards the Northwest and missing South Florida. Why the big difference in forecast?

[Rebelbase]

I don't know. Weather forecasters have big egos. The one showing it hitting FL at least is drawn so that I can understand the influencing weather patterns.

The blocking Bermuda high is forcing this thing NW. The westward extent of that high will determine which track it takes toward the north....The larger the high, the farther west it will go.

I'm just an armchair weather guy, but it seems plausable to me.

[PJ-Comix]

Here is the latest projected path from The Weather Channel. The only thing that worries me is that Isabel is STILL heading almost due West. For this projected path to be correct, Isabel will have to start veering more towards the Northwest in the next couple of days.

[Rebelbase]

"HURRICANE SUPPLIES:"

Liquor was left off the list. I always see lines out the door at the ABC store whenever a Hurricane or Ice Storm approaches.

Must be people stocking up for "medicinal" purposes.

[Rebelbase]

I hate it when that happens to a picture file.

[dennis1x]

Latest models and forecast leaning more and more to a northward turn and no US landfall. Other good news is that 30kt shear is predicted in a few days which would rapidly weaken Isabel.

[mhking]

This is starting to look like a Savannah/Charleston landfall, which would give us heavy rain from as far south/west as Atlanta, and on up the coast from there.

I'm headed out to replenish the supply closet tomorrow.

[PJ-Comix]

Latest models and forecast leaning more and more to a northward turn and no US landfall.

I haven't seen that yet but the Weather Channel is on and I will be checking the forecast on Isabel's projected path.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"This is starting to look like a Savannah/Charleston landfall,...

That's my uneducated guess.

[mhking]

The most ominous one is UKMET Model. It has Isabel hovering off the mid Florida coast at 120 hours.

That would imply a Jacksonville/Savannah landfall and basically running up I-16/75 toward Atlanta before it turned more eastward.

[dennis1x]

The Weather Channel isnt a good source for info...try this..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

look at computer models and read the 11am discussion.

[NautiNurse]

Your track forecast rates my definition of ominous.

[mhking]

Your track forecast rates my definition of ominous.

That, combined with the "Oh, sh*t" look in the eyes of the forecasters on The Weather Channel, have me figuring on picking up some extra water, canned goods & charcoal while I'm out tomorrow. (I figure I can cook on my grill, power or no.)

[NautiNurse]

I like the part of the discussion where shear interacts at 120 hours. Would make me perfectly happy to see Izzie beheaded in 5 days.

[PJ-Comix]

Hmmm... That forecast model shows the center of Isabel coming no closer to Ft. Lauderdale than about 200 miles. BTW, I notice that hurricanes south of the Greater Antilles tend to be forced west into the Gulf of Mexico. My guess is that the mountain systems on those islands prevents most of the hurricanes from moving north. The highest mountain in the Greater Antilles is Duarte Peak in the Dominican Republic which is about 10,000 feet high. Sometimes it even snows there. Anyway, those mountains act as a barrier and basically aim the hurricanes west into the Gulf. Then, freed of the mountain barriers to the north, the hurricanes tend to veer north and into the Gulf states.

[PJ-Comix]

I like the part of the discussion where shear interacts at 120 hours. Would make me perfectly happy to see Izzie beheaded in 5 days.

I think Isabel is too large of a hurricane to simply be "beheaded" out at sea. In any event, it is sure to bring lots of rain to the coast somewhere.

[newgeezer]

... and, if it's a "twin," it's definitely the runt of the two.

[NautiNurse]

Pressure up slightly... Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 26
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 12, 2003

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Isabel continues westward...

 
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located
near latitude 21.6 north...longitude  57.8 west or about 370
miles...600 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

 
Isabel is moving toward the west near  9 mph...15 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next 24 hours...as are common in major
hurricanes.  NOAA and Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
will investigate Isabel this afternoon.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  924 mb...27.29 inches.

 
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over
portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto
Rico over the next several days.

 
Repeating the 11 am AST position...21.6 N... 57.8 W.  Movement
toward...west near  9 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 924 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Beven

[dirtboy]

... and, if it's a "twin," it's definitely the runt of the two.

At one point, the typhoon had winds of 175mph. It has since weakened to 120mph and made landfall in South Korea. But I still wouldn't want to get hit by a solid Cat 3 storm...

[SC Swamp Fox]

Savannah/Charleston

That would put me on the northern side of the eye.

I'm betting on a sharper northward turn,
Myrtle Beach/Wilmington...

or a glancing blow on the NC outer banks.