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Posted on 09/09/2003 10:22:26 PM PDT by kingu
Oh ok ... thanks for the info
California Chamber of Commerce poll..........
Schwarzenegger McClintock Ueberroth Bustamante Republican (n=380) 44% 23% 14% 5% Democrat (n445) 13% 4% 6% 59% Other/IND (n=180) 30% 10% 9% 28%
For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall relection for Governor was just between the following two candidates? (Randomize choices) 49% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican 42% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat * Other names (vol) 3% Would not vote (vol) 6% Undecided / refused (vol) __________________________________________________________________________ For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall election for Governor was just between the following two candidates? (Randomize choices) 43% Peter Ueberroth, Republican 43% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat * Other names (vol) 4% Would not vote (vol) 9% Undecided / refused (vol) _________________________________________________________________________ For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall election for Governor was just between the following two candidates? (Randomize choices) 41% Tom McClintock, Republican 47% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat 1% Other names (vol) 3% Would not vote (vol) 8% Undecided / refused (vol)
The second part of the special election will list candidates running to replace Governor Davis if he is recalled. You still get a chance to cast a vote for one of the replacement candidates, even if you voted NO, not to recall Governor Gray Davis, or you do not vote at all on the first part of the recall. Now, if the recall election was being held today, and you had to make a choice, for which one of the following candidates would you vote?
(Randomize choices)
33% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
28% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican
12% Tom McClintock, Republican
10% Peter Ueberroth, Republican
3% Arianna Huffington, Independent
2% Bill Simon, Republican
1% Larry Flynt, Democrat
1% Peter Miguel Camejo, Green Party
* Other names (vol)
7% Undecided / refused (vol)
Not Arnold's ego.
Rove's.
McClintock has promised a free house to every Californian. "If it is within the authority of the governor."
09/09/2003 Field Poll 08/15/2003 Field Poll
Yes on Recall 55% Yes on Recall 58%
No on Recall 40% No on Recall 37%
Bustamante 30% (+5%) Bustamante 25%
Schwarzenegger 25% (+3%) Schwarzenegger 22%
McClintock 13% (+4%) McClintock 9%
Ueberoth 5% (0%) Simon 8%
Arianna 3% (-1%) Ueberoth 5%
Camejo 2% (0%) Arianna 4%
Camejo 2%
Likely Voters(MOE 4.5%)
W/O MCLINTOCK:
Schwarzenegger 33% - Bustamante 31%
-Ueberoth is out of the race
----------------------------------------------------------------
SurveyUSA 09/10/2003 SurveyUSA 08/26/2003
Remove Davis 62% Remove Davis 64%
Keep Davis 37% Keep Davis 35%
Schwarzenegger 39% (-6%) Schwarzenegger 45%
Bustamante 29% (0%) Bustamante 29%
McClintock 16% (+5%) McClintock 11%
Ueberroth 6% (0%) Ueberroth 6%
Huffington 3% (0%) Huffington 3%
Other ?% Other 4%
Undecided ?% Undecided 2%
-Ueberoth is out of the race
-----------------------------------------------------------------
LA Times
For Recall 50%-Against Recall 45%
Cruz 35%%
Arnold 22%
McClintock 11%
Ueberoth 7%
That is the exact range Willie Brown predicted coincidentally. I suspect if anything that range is a bit low, unless the guy real bombs in a debate lots of folks are watching. My guess, wild though it is, is that Bustamante will get 37%.
That's not a good sign
The Field Poll frequently oversamples the left end of the spectrum, and their MOE is 4.5 points. That's a pretty wide MOE with over 100 candidates.
I think Bustamante will pull in 32-35%.
That is the exact range Willie Brown predicted coincidentally. I suspect if anything that range is a bit low, unless the guy real bombs in a debate lots of folks are watching. My guess, wild though it is, is that Bustamante will get 37%.
95 posted on 09/10/2003 10:00 PM PDT by Torie
Oh my gosh, I may have to rethink my response if Willie agrees. Actually, say what you want about Willie (and believe me I have), the guy has his nose to the ground regarding California politics better than just about anyone. If he says 32-35%, it's rather complimentary to my position.
As for your guess of 37%, it would be absurd for me to criticize that. My thinking on the numbers relates to the impact a guy like Schwarzenegger will have on Bustamante's vote. I see at least a 5% swing from Bustamante towards Schwarzenegger. I know one hard core liberal who never votes republican, who is going to vote for Schwarzenegger comfortably. IMO, this will limit Bustamante's upside to the 32-35% range. I don't think it's out of the question that Bustamante will get 37%.
If something happens to Schwarzenegger, I'll be surprised if Bustamante doesn't get 40-45%, possibly in excess of that. I don't know a single liberal that will vote for McClintock. I can't imagine one doing so. No Schwarzenegger and there's only one place to call home for them.
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