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Eyewitness News Exclusive Poll (McClintock at 16 percent)
KABC 7 Los Angeles ^ | 09/09/2003

Posted on 09/09/2003 10:22:26 PM PDT by kingu

According to our EXCLUSIVE EYEWITNESS NEWS POLL, Arnold Schwarzenegger is the frontrunner in the recall election.

The statewide poll found that 62 percent are in favor of removing Governor Davis. 37 percent believe he should stay.

Schwarzenegger leads the recall candidates with 39 percent, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante gets 29 percent, State Senator Tom Mcclintock, 16 percent, Peter Ueberroth, who has now dropped out, 6 percent, and Arianna Huffington, 3 percent.

The new field poll has Bustamante ahead of Schwarzenegger by 5 points.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: bustamante; davis; mcclintock; mcwinner; recall; schwarzenegger
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To: VeritatisSplendor
Some questions around here, is this your one? Thanks...
81 posted on 09/10/2003 6:15:39 AM PDT by eureka! (Rats and Presstitutes lie--they have to in order to survive.....)
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To: born yesterday
Many California observers conclude the Democrat Party owns the Field Poll. Their polling invariably puts Democrats ahead.

Oh ok ... thanks for the info

82 posted on 09/10/2003 8:38:03 AM PDT by Mo1 (http://www.favewavs.com/wavs/cartoons/spdemocrats.wav)
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To: Hugin
"Those people are never going to vote for McC no matter how much more qualified and competent he may be."

Correct

83 posted on 09/10/2003 8:42:03 AM PDT by republicofdavis
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For comparitive purposes on the thread the following is from the CA Chamber of Commerce Poll released yesterday.....

California Chamber of Commerce poll..........

		
		Schwarzenegger  McClintock	Ueberroth  Bustamante

Republican (n=380)     	44% 	     23%   	    14%	        5%
Democrat    (n445) 	13% 	     4%             6%          59%
Other/IND  (n=180)      30%          10%            9%          28%

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall
relection for Governor was just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices) 

49% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican
42% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
6%   Undecided / refused (vol)
__________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)

43% Peter Ueberroth, Republican
43% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
4%  Would not vote (vol)
9%  Undecided / refused (vol)
_________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)
 
41% Tom McClintock, Republican
47% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
1%  Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
8%  Undecided / refused (vol)


The second part of the special election will list candidates running to replace Governor Davis if he is recalled. You still get a chance to cast a vote for one of the replacement candidates, even if you voted NO, not to recall Governor Gray Davis, or you do not vote at all on the first part of the recall. Now, if the recall election was being held today, and you had to make a choice, for which one of the following candidates would you vote?
(Randomize choices)

33% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
28% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican
12% Tom McClintock, Republican
10% Peter Ueberroth, Republican
3% Arianna Huffington, Independent
2% Bill Simon, Republican
1% Larry Flynt, Democrat
1% Peter Miguel Camejo, Green Party
* Other names (vol)
7% Undecided / refused (vol)

84 posted on 09/10/2003 8:47:14 AM PDT by deport
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To: kingu
Join Us…Your One Thread To All The California Recall News Threads!

Want on our daily or major news ping lists? Freepmail DoctorZin

85 posted on 09/10/2003 9:25:09 AM PDT by DoctorZIn
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To: Kevin Curry
The only thing preventing California from gaining a genuinely conservative governor is Arnold's ego.

Not Arnold's ego.

Rove's.

86 posted on 09/10/2003 9:29:39 AM PDT by B Knotts
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To: Kevin Curry
Given that McClintock's supporters are far more likely to show up and vote, McClimtock would win this race.

McClintock has promised a free house to every Californian. "If it is within the authority of the governor."

87 posted on 09/10/2003 9:35:50 AM PDT by RGSpincich
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To: kingu
Poll results summary online at SurveyUSA

Detailed report by SurveyUSA of the results
88 posted on 09/10/2003 9:48:04 AM PDT by jam137 (see my FR homepage for CA Recall perspectives)
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To: ambrose; Rabid Republican; kellynla
Here are the first results by SurveyUSA:

2003 SurveyUSA Election Polls

Sorted: Newest Data on Top Last Updated: 8/12/03

-----------------------------------------------

CA Governor Recall 8/11/2003

Remove Davis 66%

Keep Davis 32%

Undecided 2%

Data Collected 8/9/03 - 8/10/03

Geography State of California

Universe 493 Certain Voters

Margin of Error 4.5%

-----------------------------------------

CA Governor Replacement 8/11/2003 --------------------------------------------

Schwarzenegger 51%

Bustamante 17%

Ueberroth 7%

Simon 6%

McClintock 5%

Huffington 5%

Other 7%

Undecided 3%

Data Collected 8/9/03 - 8/10/03

Geography State of California

Universe 476 Certain Voters

Margin of Error 4.6%

Everyone should compare the 8/11 (above), 8/26 and 9/9 polls by SurveyUSA. Here are some key trends:

Remove Davis: 66% to 64% to 62%

Schwarzenegger: 51% to 45% to 39%

Bustamante: 17% to 29% to 29%

McClintock: 5% to 11% to 16%
89 posted on 09/10/2003 10:05:46 AM PDT by jam137 (see my FR homepage for CA Recall perspectives)
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To: jam137
Thanks for the ping!
90 posted on 09/10/2003 10:53:20 AM PDT by kellynla (USMC "C" 1/5 1st Mar Div. Viet Nam '69 & '70 Semper Fi VOTE4MCCLINTOCK http://www.tommcclintock.com)
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To: jam137
Everyone should compare the 8/11 (above), 8/26 and 9/9 polls by SurveyUSA. Here are some key trends:

Remove Davis: 66% to 64% to 62%

Schwarzenegger: 51% to 45% to 39%

Bustamante: 17% to 29% to 29%

McClintock: 5% to 11% to 16%

Interesting, if the trend continues, there would be a statistical dead heat by 10/7 between the Three Replacement Amigos LOL
91 posted on 09/10/2003 11:02:34 AM PDT by kellynla (USMC "C" 1/5 1st Mar Div. Viet Nam '69 & '70 Semper Fi VOTE4MCCLINTOCK http://www.tommcclintock.com)
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To: Rabid Republican; starsandstrips; summer; Jim Robinson; Salvation; Ernest_at_the_Beach; ...
Everyone should compare the 8/11 (above), 8/26 and 9/9 polls by SurveyUSA. Here are some key trends:

Remove Davis: 66% to 64% to 62%

Schwarzenegger: 51% to 45% to 39%

Bustamante: 17% to 29% to 29%

McClintock: 5% to 11% to 16%

Interesting, if the trend continues, there would be a statistical dead heat by 10/7 between the Three Replacement Amigos VOTE4MCCLINTOCK or pay the liberal tab for the next 3 years! click here to learn more http://www.tommcclintock.com
92 posted on 09/10/2003 11:05:46 AM PDT by kellynla (USMC "C" 1/5 1st Mar Div. Viet Nam '69 & '70 Semper Fi VOTE4MCCLINTOCK http://www.tommcclintock.com)
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To: kingu
09/09/2003 Field Poll                 08/15/2003 Field Poll
Yes on Recall 55%                     Yes on Recall 58%  
No on Recall 40%                      No on Recall 37%  

Bustamante 30% (+5%)                  Bustamante 25%
Schwarzenegger 25% (+3%)              Schwarzenegger 22%
McClintock 13% (+4%)                  McClintock 9%
Ueberoth 5% (0%)                      Simon 8%
Arianna 3% (-1%)                      Ueberoth 5%
Camejo 2% (0%)                        Arianna 4%
                                      Camejo 2%
Likely Voters(MOE 4.5%)
W/O MCLINTOCK: 
Schwarzenegger 33% - Bustamante 31%
-Ueberoth is out of the race
----------------------------------------------------------------
SurveyUSA 09/10/2003                  SurveyUSA 08/26/2003 
Remove Davis 62%                      Remove Davis 64%
Keep Davis 37%                        Keep Davis 35%

Schwarzenegger 39% (-6%)              Schwarzenegger 45% 
Bustamante 29% (0%)                   Bustamante 29%
McClintock 16% (+5%)                  McClintock 11% 
Ueberroth 6% (0%)                     Ueberroth 6%
Huffington 3% (0%)                    Huffington 3%
Other ?%                              Other 4%
Undecided ?%                          Undecided 2%
-Ueberoth is out of the race

-----------------------------------------------------------------
LA Times 
For Recall 50%-Against Recall 45% 

Cruz 35%% 
Arnold 22%
McClintock 11%
Ueberoth 7%

93 posted on 09/10/2003 9:26:10 PM PDT by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: Free the USA; Torie
!
94 posted on 09/10/2003 9:30:00 PM PDT by KQQL (^@__*^)
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To: DoughtyOne
I think Bustamante will pull in 32-35%.

That is the exact range Willie Brown predicted coincidentally. I suspect if anything that range is a bit low, unless the guy real bombs in a debate lots of folks are watching. My guess, wild though it is, is that Bustamante will get 37%.

95 posted on 09/10/2003 10:00:32 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Mo1
The new field poll has Bustamante ahead of Schwarzenegger by 5 points

That's not a good sign

The Field Poll frequently oversamples the left end of the spectrum, and their MOE is 4.5 points. That's a pretty wide MOE with over 100 candidates.

96 posted on 09/10/2003 10:03:02 PM PDT by Poohbah (Hee Haw was supposed to be a television show...not the basis of a political movement...)
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To: Torie
To: DoughtyOne

I think Bustamante will pull in 32-35%.

That is the exact range Willie Brown predicted coincidentally. I suspect if anything that range is a bit low, unless the guy real bombs in a debate lots of folks are watching. My guess, wild though it is, is that Bustamante will get 37%.
95 posted on 09/10/2003 10:00 PM PDT by Torie


Oh my gosh, I may have to rethink my response if Willie agrees.  Actually, say what you want about Willie (and believe me I have), the guy has his nose to the ground regarding California politics better than just about anyone.  If he says 32-35%, it's rather complimentary to my position.

As for your guess of 37%, it would be absurd for me to criticize that.  My thinking on the numbers relates to the impact a guy like Schwarzenegger will have on Bustamante's vote.  I see at least a 5% swing from Bustamante towards Schwarzenegger.  I know one hard core liberal who never votes republican, who is going to vote for Schwarzenegger comfortably.  IMO, this will limit Bustamante's upside to the 32-35% range.  I don't think it's out of the question that Bustamante will get 37%.

If something happens to Schwarzenegger, I'll be surprised if Bustamante doesn't get 40-45%, possibly in excess of that.  I don't know a single liberal that will vote for McClintock.  I can't imagine one doing so.  No Schwarzenegger and there's only one place to call home for them.


97 posted on 09/10/2003 10:20:01 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: Poohbah

98 posted on 09/10/2003 11:46:59 PM PDT by KQQL (^@__*^)
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Arnold Schwarzenegger stadium in Graz, Austria


99 posted on 09/10/2003 11:51:08 PM PDT by KQQL (^@__*^)
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