Eyewitness News Exclusive Poll (McClintock at 16 percent)

KABC 7 Los Angeles ^ | 09/09/2003

[kingu]

According to our EXCLUSIVE EYEWITNESS NEWS POLL, Arnold Schwarzenegger is the frontrunner in the recall election.

The statewide poll found that 62 percent are in favor of removing Governor Davis. 37 percent believe he should stay.

Schwarzenegger leads the recall candidates with 39 percent, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante gets 29 percent, State Senator Tom Mcclintock, 16 percent, Peter Ueberroth, who has now dropped out, 6 percent, and Arianna Huffington, 3 percent.

The new field poll has Bustamante ahead of Schwarzenegger by 5 points.

[kingu]

Actually, the CA democrats accidentally broadcasted via the intercom at the Capitol (I believe it was) that they intended to do pretty much that... block progress and blame the Republicans.

Yup, though you'd think that Democrats by now would actually make sure that the mike was off. But there is something that people aren't taking into account.. Not only would it be politics as usual under the capitol dome, but Tom McClintock wouldn't be there. He'd be over at the Governor's office.

[hotpotato]

Sacremento = Sacramento

I guess I can never be governor of California.

[ambrose]

I would suggest you post one last post to me expressing dismay that I could possibly say such a thing about you, giving whatever grounds that support the thought that you think I am lying here.

Oh horrors, how could you say such things about me?!

Actually, what saddens me is not that you are lying to the forum. You're not - You're lying to yourself. And that's the biggest tragedy of all.

And with that, I bid you adieu.

[truth_seeker]

"Pete Wilson managed to win without hurling "right-wing crazies" type of insults to his base..."

The serious issue is that ANY Republican running for statewide office in CA MUST appeal MUCH more broadly, than simply to the right wing of the party.

To actually do this, the candidate must be more moderate (or campaign and appear to be). Reagan, Wilson and Dukmejian WERE able to do it, by either being in fact moderate, or downplaying their right wing conservatism.

Tom hasn't, and his supporters don't want him too. So long as that course is followed, the results are predictable, reflected in each poll.

If the right wing is 15 to 20 percent of the CA electorate, you tell me how to stretch it into anything approaching 50 percent? (I already gave you the answer)

[ambrose]

Reagan, Wilson and Dukmejian WERE able to do it, by either being in fact moderate, or downplaying their right wing conservatism.

They did not accomplish this by deliberately going out of their way to insult conservatives. This is straight out of the Riordan playbook.

Giuliani, by contrast, manages to be liberal to moderate without going out of his way to alienate the conservative base voters.

[heleny]

I think Arnold doesn't shoot off the hip by accident. This is his play to convince moderate Democrats that he's not a hard core conservative

Today, advisor Pete Wilson claimed Schwarzenegger supports Prop 54.

[A CA Guy]

Tom McClintock is that Black Knight from that Monte Python's Holy Grail film.
He's there with his arms and legs cut off, hopelessly beaten and still screaming he's winning!

I guess for you guys logic goes out the window and denial is a river in Egypt!

[ambrose]

Maybe Arnold's top advisor is really Riordan, not Wilson? The "right wing crazies" thing is something Riordan would say, certainly not Wilson.

[heleny]

I think he has over a dozen "advisors," so who knows what rank Wilson has.

[hotpotato]

Not only would it be politics as usual under the capitol dome, but Tom McClintock wouldn't be there. He'd be over at the Governor's office.

Good point. Who's going to watch the hen house if McClintock isn't in the yard.

[truth_seeker]

"They did not accomplish this by deliberately going out of their way to insult conservatives."

You are not typical of the entire electorate. You are clinging to one phrase, taking it as an insult, and extrapolating some big importance.

Arnold's strategy is, politically, quite sound. It recognizes the nature of THIS election.

So long as a right wing candidate is in the race, Arnold knows he loses those votes. He is after the other half of Republicans, the Independents, and as many democrats as he can get. (To win it needs to reach anywhere from 35 to say 55 percent, depending on who is in at the end).

McClintock (or Simon) only gets the right wing voters (15 to 20 percent max).

And of course Bustamante has a lock on something like 30 to 35 percent, no matter what (possibly more).

Most simply stated: Arnold has a strategy to win this election as it REALLY is, and McClintock doesn't.

If McClintock made the compromises necessary to win this election, you wouldn't like it and would disapprove.

[ambrose]

If McClintock made the compromises necessary to win this election, you wouldn't like it and would disapprove.

Nuh uh uh.

[autoresponder]

I N T E R A C T I V E????A U D I O

IS THAT ALL THERE IS?

[ambrose]

[PhilDragoo]

Oh, the humanity!

[MeekOneGOP]

hehe !! Good work. So when's McClintock gonna drop out ?? ...

[republicanwizard]

He won't. Don't worry about it. This recall is over. Were I a California Republican, I'd probably vote no on the recall. I'd rather Davis than Bustamante. If McClintock is going to be such a childish loser, then I say let's go down to defeat all the way.

[Dave S]

The meaningful match-up is McClintock (41 percent) versus Bustamante (47 percent) in a head-to-head contest.

So the polls arent good enough for McClintock supporters that you feel you have to invent your own numbers. Well I guess if my candidate was stuck between 12% and 16%, I might be embarrassed too.

[chilepepper]

You really don't understand polls very well, or their dynamics... it is unlikely that McClintocks numbers will improve very much more -- there is no 23% swing waiting in the wings.

It is clear as day to me that a vote for McClintock is a vote for Bustamante.

The demoncraps will try to manufacture more momentum for McClintock and the weak minded who label themselves "conservative" and don't really understand how politics works will be swayed, just as they were by Perot in 1992.

I live in Chile, and tomorrow is the anniversary of the 11 Sept. coup of 1973 that ousted the Communist Allende.

Now Allende WON the presidency, with 30 something percent of the votes, with the Christian Democrat Allesandri coming in second with twenty something. The spoiler was another middle of the road or even center-right candidate called Tomic what siphoned off enough votes from the other middle of the road slightly left Allesandri, to give the vote to the radical Allende, who most of Chile DID NOT WANT. The rest is tragic history: Allende governed (poorly) for several years and the Left was literally preparing its OWN coup to install a true Castro style Communist dictatorship.

I guess the Tomic voters voted their conscience and felt good after their vote. Thats what counts, right???

[born yesterday]

The new field poll has Bustamante ahead of Schwarzenegger by 5 points

That's not a good sign

Many California observers conclude the Democrat Party owns the Field Poll. Their polling invariably puts Democrats ahead.