Eyewitness News Exclusive Poll (McClintock at 16 percent)

KABC 7 Los Angeles ^ | 09/09/2003

[kingu]

According to our EXCLUSIVE EYEWITNESS NEWS POLL, Arnold Schwarzenegger is the frontrunner in the recall election.

The statewide poll found that 62 percent are in favor of removing Governor Davis. 37 percent believe he should stay.

Schwarzenegger leads the recall candidates with 39 percent, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante gets 29 percent, State Senator Tom Mcclintock, 16 percent, Peter Ueberroth, who has now dropped out, 6 percent, and Arianna Huffington, 3 percent.

The new field poll has Bustamante ahead of Schwarzenegger by 5 points.

[TheConservator]

Hate to step into the middle of this debate, but here goes.....

Even if by some miracle McClintock pulled off an upset and won, wouldn't it be a pyrrhic victory? Even in the best case scenario, he would have been elected by a plurality and really have absolutely no mandate to govern. And he would be faced by an overwhelmingly democratic, totally hostile legislature, who will predictably block his every move, and then turn around and blame all the state's problems on McClintock.

Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

[Cinnamon Girl]

When oh when will they find a poll that says McClintock is ahead? When, when, when.... Maybe in a different election. But not in this one.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. They'll vote for a RINO but they are not yet ready to vote for a conservative.

[goldstategop]

Yep. And who really wants this job? For the next three years, whoever in charge of California is going to be the political skunk of the West. I would think Tom would bow out and wait til 2006. The truth is its better to let someone like Arnold take the heat for budget cuts, etc. Conservatives would not want to be accused of killing the chirrun and poisoning the air.

[ambrose]

And he would be faced by an overwhelmingly democratic, totally hostile legislature, who will predictably block his every move, and then turn around and blame all the state's problems on McClintock.

Three words: Line-item veto.

[ambrose]

For the next three years, whoever in charge of California is going to be the political skunk of the West.

I wouldn't be so sure... we're beginning to see the makings of another stock market bubble, which will lead to a substantial increase in state revenues...

[DoughtyOne]

I have to believe that we're dreaming if we think 71% of the vote is going against Bustamante. Hard core teachers and other trade union votes are going to pour in for him. The usual suspects in the greater LA and SF areas are going to vote for him. That's life. When all is said and done, I think Bustamante will pull in 32-35%.

We're playing a game of chicken with the Bustamante block of voters. I think that's a losers game.

As we discuss this issue, absentee ballots are being locked away, taken out of the game. We have a group of people who want something they can't have desparately. Each week they delay the inevitable between 1 and 2% of the vote is being solidified.

I cannot express stridently enough, this is close. We are messing with fire.

[ambrose]

Thanks for the update. Today, Arnold said that anyone who supported Prop 54 is a "right-wing crazy"... It is one thing to be insulted like that by a Rat I did not vote for... it is another to vote for the man hurling out such insults...

What other lovely things might he spew out tomorrow?

[goldstategop]

Well if he is going to pull in 32-35% why isn't he way ahead? Democrats have a 10% vote advantage over Republicans in California.

[goldstategop]

I think Arnold doesn't shoot off the hip by accident. This is his play to convince moderate Democrats that he's not a hard core conservative and that the Republican Right doesn't own him. It may just get him the votes he is looking for from that quarter.

[truth_seeker]

In #38 you express a keen understanding of the politics in California.

Statewide Republicans are about 36 percent.

Of Republicans, about half are "right wing." The rest consider themselves "moderate" which translates to rino, in freeperland.

McClintock's poll numbers now reflect he gets almost exactly the right wing "half" of Republicans--nothing more.

So the right wing prevails in party primaries, but falls short with the entire electorate.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. There too few Republicans in California for Arnold to spend his entire time pandering to them. Its very different from Texas where you could safely ignore the Democrats and still win statewide office.

[ambrose]

Pete Wilson managed to win without hurling "right-wing crazies" type of insults to his base...

[hotpotato]

And you think Arnold's voters would vote for a conservative Republican? ... I have feeling they'll be stay at home types

Very likely they would show up and vote "No" on the recall if it looks like Bustamante might win. That's what I intend to do if it looks anything like Bustamante could be governor. Bustamante is a socialist, I don't care what party he claims to belong to and he scares the hell out of me so much so that I'd rather see Davis remain in Sacremento.

[ambrose]

And you think Arnold's voters would vote for a conservative Republican?

I don't think Leo Terrell will be voting for McClintock, that's for danged sure. LOL.

[hotpotato]

The biggest defeat Conservatives could suffer is Gray Davis surviving the CA Recall!!!

Nope. The biggest defeat is if Gray is replaced by Bustamante.

[DoughtyOne]

In actuality he said that yesterday.  I disagree with him.  He is still better than Bustamante.  

Ambrose you continue to say things on this forum that are dishonest and misleading.  For that reason I would like to ask you to please quit posting to me.  I don't mind bringing something to your attention once in rebuttal, but once I have it's disconcerting to watch you flutter off to other areas of the forum to make the same false charges again and again.  You've been doing this for weeks.

If that's what you wish to do, go ahead, I can't stop you.  Just don't expect me to wish to converse with you.

I have been ignoring your posts to me for days now.  Here you have posted something directly to me that has been all over this forum for the last 24 hours.  I am as well aware of that fact as I am every other charge you make against Schwarzenegger on the forum.  You don't really need to address these comments to me.

Please DO NOT post to me anymore.  I would sincerely appreciate it.  Thank you.

I would suggest you post one last post to me expressing dismay that I could possibly say such a thing about you, giving whatever grounds that support the thought that you think I am lying here.  I'll be perfectly willing to let that statement stand.  I don't even wish to discuss that with you.

[hotpotato]

And he would be faced by an overwhelmingly democratic, totally hostile legislature, who will predictably block his every move, and then turn around and blame all the state's problems on McClintock.

Actually, the CA democrats accidentally broadcasted via the intercom at the Capitol (I believe it was) that they intended to do pretty much that... block progress and blame the Republicans.

[DoughtyOne]

The democrats go out and sign up registered voters all the time. They grab them going into busniesses and sign them up. These people aren't interested in voting. That's the problem with voter drives.

If a person takes the time to search out a place to register and follows through, it's much more likely that they'll vote. If someone chases them down the street, it's not likely they will.

Sure democrats have registered a lot of people. It's just that they have registered the wrong people. They can't get them out on election day.

[woodyinscc]

I have much greater confidence in SurveyUSA.com that has a Freeper whose screen name escapes me right now

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