Eyewitness News Exclusive Poll (McClintock at 16 percent)

KABC 7 Los Angeles ^ | 09/09/2003

[kingu]

According to our EXCLUSIVE EYEWITNESS NEWS POLL, Arnold Schwarzenegger is the frontrunner in the recall election.

The statewide poll found that 62 percent are in favor of removing Governor Davis. 37 percent believe he should stay.

Schwarzenegger leads the recall candidates with 39 percent, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante gets 29 percent, State Senator Tom Mcclintock, 16 percent, Peter Ueberroth, who has now dropped out, 6 percent, and Arianna Huffington, 3 percent.

The new field poll has Bustamante ahead of Schwarzenegger by 5 points.

[Kevin Curry]

Arnold now leads Tom by 23 points not 12.

Meaningless.

The meaningful match-up is McClintock (41 percent) versus Bustamante (47 percent) in a head-to-head contest. Given that McClintock's supporters are far more likely to show up and vote, McClimtock would win this race.

The only thing preventing California from gaining a genuinely conservative governor is Arnold's ego.

[Hugin]

Past experience shows the Field poll notoriously tracks 10-15% off in favor of liberal politicians and initiative positions. They predicted Diane Fienstein and Kathleen Brown would both beat Wilson. They predicted close elections for props 187 and 209 both of which won by nearly 2 to 1. They also predicted that Simon would lose last year by 15% whereas he actually lost by only 5%. The truth may lie somewhere in-between, but if I had to bet I'd say the Eyewitness poll is closer.

[Hugin]

The only thing preventing California from gaining a genuinely conservative governor is Arnold's ego.

That and the fact that twice as many Californians want Arnold to be Governor as do Tom.

I guess that's meaningless too.

[ambrose]

Past experience shows the Field poll notoriously tracks 10-15% off in favor of liberal politicians and initiative positions. They predicted Diane Fienstein and Kathleen Brown would both beat Wilson. They predicted close elections for props 187 and 209 both of which won by nearly 2 to 1. They also predicted that Simon would lose last year by 15% whereas he actually lost by only 5%. The truth may lie somewhere in-between, but if I had to bet I'd say the Eyewitness poll is closer.

In my opinion, the raw numbers of both polls aren't as important as bigger trends. Both show a small slippage for Yes on Recall, and a bump up for McClintock.

[LdSentinal]

They also predicted that Simon would lose last year by 15% whereas he actually lost by only 5%

No, the last Field poll showed Davis winning by 7% over Simon.

[thoughtomator]

Actually, it does make a lot of sense. Busty's so obviously corrupt that his share represents only the Rabidly Marxist Left. That's typically around 15-20% nationally, but if we grant that CA is a bit more liberal than most, we can estimate it to be 25% of the electorate.

But the trend nationally is away from these people. They are getting consistently outvoted on all the major issues, and in response have become even more shrill and unbearable.

So it's perfectly consistent that 70%+ of the electorate will vote for not-Busty. Since all Arnie's got to do is beat Busty, all he needs is about 30% to win, less than half of the non-Busty votes. If he's polling 39%, then he's got it in the bag no matter what McClintock's numbers are.

[goldstategop]

And you think Arnold's voters would vote for a conservative Republican? If they dislike Large Breasts, I have feeling they'll be stay at home types - you know, there's no one out there to vote for. If Arnold really slips, he might come out and endorse Tom but I doubt it.

[SierraWasp]

It's not on SurveyUSA.com's webside. Still has 8/26 poll.

[goldstategop]

I think it was a lot closer than that. The Field Poll was off by about 2% from the actual results in the 2002 general election.

[goldstategop]

It must be a KABC TV exclusive, then. LOL!

[ambrose]

It will be up tomorrow. This is the SurveyUSA poll. The SurveyUSA poll director lurks on these threads and said the new poll would go to the clients today, then is released on SurveyUSA website tomorrow.

[bootyist-monk]

Eyewitness News Exclusive Poll (Other at 4 percent)!!!!!

[SierraWasp]

"Couldn't resist doing a bit of baiting..."

Yup! I'd say you're a master at it!!!

[ambrose]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/976924/posts?page=103#103

[hunter112]

What makes this poll suspicious is 3% for ZsaZsa Huffington, when the votes are all counted, I expect both Gallagher and Larry Flynt to beat her!

[DoughtyOne]

09/10/2003
Schwarzenegger leads the recall candidates with 39 percent, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante gets 29 percent, State Senator Tom Mcclintock, 16 percent, Peter Ueberroth, who has now dropped out, 6 percent, and Arianna Huffington, 3 percent.
08/26/2003
Schwarzenegger leads the recall candidates with 45 percent, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante gets 29 percent, State Senator Tom Mcclintock, 11 percent, Peter Ueberroth, 6 percent, and Arianna Huffington, 3 percent.

Okay I don't know what the plus or minus on this is, so let's take it at face value.

In the last two weeks Schwarzenegger has lost 6%.  McClintock has gained 5%.  Bustamante is still at 29%.

On face value it appears that in four weeks we might expect Schwarzenegger will lose 12% and McClintock will gain 10% if current trends continue.  That will give Schwarzenegger 27% and McClintock 26%.

I can think of two groups who will be thrilled with this.

BTW:  The absentee vote goes into it's third day in a little less than one hour.

[goldstategop]

Considering her name recognition, I'm surprised the Greek Harpy hasn't gotten much traction. This is after all the land of fruits and nuts so I guess we can draw comfort from the fact her ultra liberal views apparently are too much for most Californians to stomach.

[Hugin]

Wishful thinking my friend. McC may have picked up some voters who previously supported Simon and Uberoth, but 15% or so is simply the hard core conservative base. There is no indication that he is picking up anyone outside that group, and much indication that Arnold is. I know many "moderate Democrat" and independent types who would never vote for a "right-winger"; they don't like Davis, are afraid of Bustamecha, but find Arnold acceptable. They make up the middle third of the electorate who decide elections. On single issues they often find themselves in agreement with conservatives, which is why "conservative" intitives on things like bi-lingual education, illegal immigration and affirmative action pass, but they are convinced that "right-wingers" are dangerous nuts who will outlaw abortion, poisen the air and water, turn us into a theocracy, and allow "big business" to run amok and "screw the little guy". Those people are never going to vote for McC no matter how much more qualified and competent he may be.

[SierraWasp]

Good! I've been waiting for these results as I have much greater confidence in SurveyUSA.com that has a Freeper whose screen name escapes me right now. I think I'm gonna sleep better knowing that both Repub candidates (the candid and the uncandid) are improving better the the BustedOne!!!

[goldstategop]

The key is Large Breasts has barely moved. I think that is about all the votes he will get on October 7th. Tom could continue gaining ground if he continues to peform well. He may be the Tim Pawlenty of 2003. I've learned long ago never to say never to a long shot. If voters are sufficiently angry they may want to send an unforgettable message to the Democratic establishment here in Sacramento.