Posted on 08/31/2003 9:13:16 AM PDT by Gothmog
WASHINGTON - In a summer of political surprises, Howard Dean catapulted to the head of the Democratic Presidential field while President Bush lost his aura of invincibility in Iraq. The fall campaign presents critical tests for both men.
An ailing economy and unrest in the Middle East threaten the President's re-election prospects although he remains a relatively popular leader, according to officeholders and activists in both parties who took stock of the 2004 race at the traditional Labor Day break.
In more than two dozen interviews, experts said they expect the Democratic primary fight to turn nasty as eight rivals try to halt Dean's rise. Some Democrats worry that none of the current contenders can stop Dean's anti-establishment candidacy, prompting speculation that high-profile alternatives may join the race.
"He appeals to your heart and the part of you that is angry with the Bush administration, but the ultimate issue is his ability to win the general election," said Waring Howe Jr., a prominent South Carolina Democrat. He likes Dean, but is wary.
"Some of us may say, `Don't do to us what you did in '88; that is, give us a candidate you liked a lot but who's defeated in November,'" Howe said.
"Don't give us another Michael Dukakis."
Bush's father soundly defeated Dukakis after a campaign that emphasized the Massachusetts governor's liberal credentials.
At Bush re-election headquarters, where Dean once was dismissed as a perfect foil, the former Vermont governor is getting a closer look. He still can be cast as a tax-raising, ill-tempered, undisciplined candidate, Republicans argue, but what if he should win the nomination while swelling the Democratic base?
"They better be worried," said Donna Brazile, manager of Al Gore's 2000 campaign. "Dean's cooking with grease."
The President's focus remains on the general election, which strategists believe will be another evenly divided, bitterly partisan contest. Bush won the 2000 race by a few hundred votes in Florida and a 5-4 ruling in the Supreme Court.
Reapportionment gave him a small head start toward re-election. In 2000, Bush won 30 states for 271 electoral votes; population growth makes those states worth 278 electoral votes in 2004, a more comfortable margin but still close.
Both parties are targeting 16 states that were decided by 5 or fewer percentage points in 2000. Bush is constantly on the prowl for votes in those battlegrounds - from Washington state, east to Arkansas, north to Maine and to more than half a dozen Midwestern states.
Polls show about 55 percent of Americans approve of Bush's job performance, but the number has slipped. Barely a majority of voters say they want him re-elected, many question the administration's credibility on Iraq, and his handling of the economy is suspect.
Leslie Gromis, a GOP strategist in Pennsylvania, said Bush will ease those doubts once a Democratic nominee emerges.
"Right now, you have five serious Democrats trying to point out what his vulnerabilities are," she said. "It's five against one. Let's see what happens when it's one-on-one."
The 54-year-old Dean, an internist by training, is suddenly the one to beat. Polls show him tied for first in Iowa, site of the nation's first caucuses, and opening a big lead in New Hampshire, a vital early primary state.
His rise in New Hampshire has rocked the campaign of Sen. John Kerry of neighboring Massachusetts. A favorite of the Democratic elite, Kerry cast himself as the early front-runner and campaigned as if he had cemented the title.
"Kerry's campaign has been strange," said Greg Haas, a Democratic strategist in Ohio. "They haven't been very aggressive."
A senior Democrat who has backed Kerry, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Dean surge has hurt Kerry's efforts to court organized labor and has the senator's own backers wondering whether his campaign has been too conventional and cautious.
Dean is advertising in nine states and signing up recruits in all 50, revolutionizing how the Internet is used to motivate backers and raise money. He collected $7.6 million from April through June, more than any other Democrat, and will raise $11 million or more by Sept. 30.
"He's definitely the front-runner," said Kathleen Sullivan, head of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. "But I caution everyone ... that it's still early, and things might change."
Dean hopes to build on his momentum in September with daily events designed to put his activists to work. With supporters who tend to be young and white, Dean recognizes that he needs a deeper constituency and will begin advertising on black and Hispanic radio.
Months after the centrist Democratic Leadership Council called him too liberal, Dean is winning converts within the DLC for supporting gun rights and balanced budgets in Vermont.
"For many of our issues, he's not just talking about them, he's actually put them into action," said Ken Cheuvront, a state senator in Arizona and member of the DLC.
Dean galvanized disenchanted Democrats by opposing Bush on the war in Iraq and demanding more from the political establishment, including party leaders in Washington. That poses a problem for his rivals, most of whom are party leaders in Washington.
They hope to weaken Dean in three September debates, possibly focusing their attacks on his policy flip-flops, his lack of foreign policy experience, his sometimes prickly personality and his record as governor.
Kerry will formally announce his candidacy Tuesday, promoting his Vietnam combat experience as a political antidote to Bush's wartime popularity. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri has staked his candidacy on Iowa, where Dean has fought him to a tie in polls.
Gephardt and Kerry air their first TV ads in September. Negative spots are not imminent, because the campaigns fear attacks would energize Dean's backers.
Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, already airing positive ads, needs to rise in polls this fall or his candidacy is doomed.
Surveys show Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut doing well in states conducting primaries after New Hampshire, but some senior party leaders have written him off as too conservative to win.
Democrats expect retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark to enter the race soon, with some suspecting that he and Dean hope to share the Democratic ticket. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Gore deny rumors that they'll run.
Senior Republicans see an outside chance that Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who gave Bush a scare in the 2000 GOP primaries, might consider mounting a third-party bid or even bolt to the Democratic ticket. McCain dismisses such speculation
Interesting that this notion is still out there.
This is kind of funny. What doesn't energize Dean's backers? Every time somebody puts him down, it strengthens his campaign.
Loon Dean leads Democratic pack.
Howard Dean -- the candidate for thrill seekers.
But John Kerry IS another Dukakis! Oh wait, was he referring to McGoverDean?
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