Super Bowl 38 pick: Rams over Raiders

Yahoooooo Sporting News ^ | 08/28/03 | Dan Pompei

[bedolido]

What makes a Super Bowl winner?

The cliche answer is great defenses, and the last three Super Bowl winners -- Tampa, New England and Baltimore -- support that logic. But before the 2000 season, the argument can be made that 12 of the previous 13 Super Bowl winners (the lone exception being the 1990 Giants) were offense-dominated teams.

So great offenses also can win. In fact, it says here great offenses will win this season when the Rams beat the Raiders in the Arena, er, Super Bowl.

What wins Super Bowls are transcendent players who redefine their careers at the ultimate moments. Think John Elway helicoptering to a first down in 1998. Think Joe Montana dissecting the Bengals on the game-winning drive in 1989.

What wins Super Bowls are coaches who give transcendent players advantages by putting them in positions to succeed. Think Jon Gruden and Bill Belichick the last two seasons or, if you prefer, Joe Gibbs in 1988.

Assuming Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk are healthy and can play as they did two seasons ago, no team has more game changers than the Rams. Some would say it is a big assumption that they will be healthy, but it may be a bigger assumption that two of the most gifted players in the game can lose their gifts so quickly.

This team also has the premier offensive mind in the game. Mike Martz is the coach whom offensive coaches at every level of football study in order to better prepare their teams.

Think Warner throwing beautiful spiral after beautiful spiral on February 1 in Houston, just as he did when he was the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 1999 and 2001. Think Faulk dancing through gaps, around linebackers and by defensive backs. Think Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt bursting out of their breaks, making effortless catches and then running away from everyone.

Think Martz making 11 offensive players look like 18, temporarily paralyzing a defense that can't possibly keep up with so many shifts, motions and personnel changes.

Think Rich Gannon throwing short, precise strikes, each one a dagger, to Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Tim Brown, Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Teyo Johnson and Tyrone Wheatley. But those short strikes don't hurt as much as Warner's long ones.

Think Rams 34, Raiders 28.

AFC picks

Division winners: Dolphins, Steelers, Titans and Raiders Wild-card teams: Colts and Bills AFC championship: Raiders over Dolphins

NFC picks

Division winners: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, Rams Wild-card teams: 49ers and Giants NFC championship: Rams over Packers

Super Bowl winner: Rams

Award picks Defensive player of the year: DE Jason Taylor, Dolphins Offensive rookie of the year: TE Dallas Clark, Colts Defensive rookie of the year: CB Terence Newman, Cowboys Comeback player of the year: QB Kurt Warner, Rams Coach of the year: Gregg Williams, Bills

Senior writer Dan Pompei covers the NFL for Sporting News. Email him at pompei@sportingnews.com.

[bedolido]

I have to admit... I LOVE THIS GUY... He really knows what he's talking about (GO RAMS!)

[WhiteGuy]

(GO RAMS!)

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..................

GO NINERS!

[Thane_Banquo]

Raiders will not be in the Super Bowl again. They are just too damn old.

As for the NFC Central, the Pack might win the division IF Favre's receivers learn how to catch (they couldn't last year), but don't rule the Bears out. Bears will get a wildcard.

[dfwgator]

Watch out for the Vikes!!

[GodBlessRonaldReagan]

I love The Sporting News, but their powers of prognostication leave something to be desired. This year, they pick Auburn to be National Champs - seems like a long shot to me. Was it last year or the year before they picked the Lions to win the Super Bowl?

[Hotdog]

WHAT? Where is Cincinnati?

[GSWarrior]

Raiders? I don't think so.

[My2Cents]

Are any of these pre-season predictions ever correct?

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

I would imagine that the Eagles, Bucs, Giants, Packers, Vikes, Saints, Falcons, and Niners might have a little something to say about that. Warner looked like rattled when he wasn't injured last year, and the O-line and Martz are overrated.

As for the AFC, I think the Titans have one more solid run left in the tank.

[dfwgator]

WHAT? Where is Cincinnati?

In Ohio.

[bedolido]

Are any of these pre-season predictions ever correct?

None that I know of... just fun to post this stuff and watch what happens.

[BADROTOFINGER]

Bucs and Dolphins, Dolphins win. You read it here first. Of course, that was my prediction last year too...JFK

[dfwgator]

Here's one pre-season prediction that is correct, the Cowboys are going to suck.

[Hotdog]

There's a Cincinnati, Iowa too...

[babaloo999]

Watch out for the Vikes!!

I'll be sure and check the tabloids and police reports when I can. LOL.

[winodog]

I like the chargers but they are in a division that will beat each other up. The browns are getting better. I also like the dolphins.
I dont think gruden will be able to hold the bucs together. I like the packers and the rams.
So I am gonna root for a charger-packer stuporbowl

[Alberta's Child]

The Rams have a big test in Week 1 against the New York Giants. I predict that this will be a "bellweather" game that will set the tone for the entire season for both teams. If the Rams lose this game, they may be in for a disappointing season.

Something else to consider is that picking a "dome" team to reach the Super Bowl is never a great bet, since these teams usually have to first secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I don't care how good the Rams are on paper -- there's no way in hell they're going to win an NFC Championship Game in January in Green Bay, Philadelphia, New York, etc.

[Thane_Banquo]

The Vikes won't go anywhere as long as they keep relying on Pretty Boy Randy "I play when I want to" Moss to win games. He doesn't care very much who wins as long as he gets paid.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Dolphins in the AFC championship? No way.

[Recovering_Democrat]

The Sporting News is published in St. Louis. This might have a wee bit of influence on the pick. Still, the Rams are strong.