McClintock optimistic despite polls

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 8/28/2003 | John Wildermuth

[ex-Texan]

Sacramento -- Tom McClintock is in remarkable good humor. New polls have the Republican state senator running a distant third in his bid to replace Gov. Gray Davis in the Oct. 7 recall election, but politically, that's a glass that's half full, not half empty.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Are you suggesting we should break the law, or perhaps work to have the federal laws changed?

Prop 187 was squelched by one low-level liberal judge. McClintock has publicly stated he would revive and appeal it up to the Supreme Court. Do you think Arnold will do that? Looks to me like he wants another amnesty. And that's exactly the kind of talk that will draw more illegals into the state and the country.

Republicans should be telling Bustamante light get lost. If Arnold were to drop out, McClintock would win, it's that simple. This may be the last chance California will ever have to fight the invasion. And what happens there affects the entire nation.

[ex-Texan]

McClintock cannot win in Californicated. Do you understand the state's demographics? Get real. If Arnold drops out, the moderate voters will vote NO! on the recall.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

If Arnold drops out, the moderate voters will vote NO! on the recall.

At some point Republicans have to stop throwing their arms up and take a stand. Even liberals know illegal immigration is a disaster for the state, prop 187 won by 59% of the vote and would win by the same margin or more today.

Davis is finished, whether Arnold is in the race or not. A choice between McClintock and Bustamante is a clear one, and I don't see the racist MECHa boy winning.

[kidd]

Your source for Arnold planning to spend money to fix things

Certainly B.S. - His interview with Hannity, source=http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/971733/posts

- Indicated support for allowing undocumented immigrants already in the country to remain here

- Said Proposition 187, the 1994 measure that denied many services to illegal immigrants, was "history"

- Refused to take a pledge not to raise taxes, but pledged to raise them only if there was a state emergency. (psst - they are in a "state emergency" now).

In other areas he has stated, in his support for public education, that children have first dibs on the state's coffers.

He has not stated any plan that I know of to address hardware issues in California's energy crisis. However he has strong support for environmental regulations - which means he's doing nothing about supply and transmition. He has spoken of cancelling unfavorable contracts, but the legality of this is questionable.

McClintock, as stated in the article, seems to be keeping one eye on Arnold and the other eye on Bustamante. He has also made his positions clear. Seems to be the best strategy to compete against an established-business-as-usual democrat and a big-name-business-as-usual celebrity.

[p. henry]

The influence of both major parties in California is declining. California elections are determined by voters who are registered as Independents. Independents here tend to be social liberals. Therefore, the winning script for Democrats has been quite simple: paint your opponent as a social conservative. Even the inoffensive Matt Fong (who is pro choice) was defeated in this fashion by Barbara Boxer.

If McClintock is the primary threat to Bustamnate, the Democrats will focus on him and use the technique described above to defeat him. Quite simply, whether or not Arnold is in the race, McClintock will not win because he will not be able to attract most of the Independent voters. Arnold, on the other hand, because of his position on certain social issues, his name recognition, his novelty, and his star power, will be able to attract Independent voters and can win against Bustamante. For these reasons, McClintock and Ueberroth should withdraw, and the sooner the better.

Some people on this thread and elsewhere have been misrepresenting Arnold's positions. For the sake of accuracy, as Arnold expressed them on the Sean Hannity show yesterday, they are as follows:

1. Abortion: pro choice, anti partial birth abortion, pro parental notification.

2. Gay rights: anti gay marriage, pro domestic partnerships.

3. Gun control: pro Brady Bill, pro assault weapon ban.

4. School vouchers: unclear, it sounded as if he believes the President's "No Child Left Behind" solution is enough.

5. Illegal immigration: he seemed to say that it is a federal problem, although he does not favor amnesties.

6. Offshore drilling: Opposed, he favors federal and state reacquisition of the leases.

7. Drivers license to illegal immigrants: opposed.

8. Affirmative action and Proposition 54: position not yet formulated.

9. Prayer in Public Schools: supports, believes it should be left up to the individual schools.

10. Iraq and the War on Terror: in support of the President.

There you have it, as heard it within the last hour.

[p. henry]

Also: anti drug legalization, pro medical use of marijuana.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Dear Oregon,

because Bustamonte will be the Governor.

Excuse me, but where exactly where you when Davis was running against Simon? Bustamante is just a continuation of same Admin with the exact same $8 tax increase proposal, and Davis got elected to a 4 year term and I heard nary a peep out of Oregon. Why is it, when a movie star with an (R) in his name is running, suddenly you "care" so much about California? Thanks for nothing.

Last time I checked, Davis was wanting Drivers Licenses for Illegals, what is the difference in the La Mecha candidate? The only "opportunity" the State of California has in following the advice of the fame-fans is to attach tax increases and economic disaster to the Republican party. "The Stupid Party" indeed.

[b9]

>>>" I think that Tom will drop out sooner than later."
If he does, my only remaining choice is Bustamante.<<<

Excuse me?
Can you show me anywhere in Mac's statements that he would support you choosing Bustamante under ANY circumstances?

[TheDon]

I've had some on FR say they are voting no on the recall and yes to Bustamente. Not to destroy Cali, but to save it. They figure the Republicans in the legislature will vote against tax increases with a Demorat governor, but will roll over and support a Republican governor's tax increases.

I think you just have to vote for a governor who will use the line item veto to ensure there is no deficit spending. Both Arnold and Tom have promised to cut spending and not raise taxes, so which ever hasn't dropped out on election day gets my vote.

[TheDon]

"Do you think Arnold will do that?"

Of course.

"Looks to me like he wants another amnesty."

I don't see how you have that opinion. Arnold can't grant amnesty, it's a fed issue.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

If McClintock is the primary threat to Bustamnate, the Democrats will focus on him and use the technique described above to defeat him.

The democrats are going to focus in and target the one who's ahead in the polls. Arnold, as a celebrity has name recognition so for the moment it's him. But now that his views on the issues are coming out people will begin to ask themselves if that's what they want, if that's the direction they wish to go in.

Illegal immigration: he seemed to say that it is a federal problem, although he does not favor amnesties.

Did he actually say that? In a quote from last night he stated:

"Now we have to move forward with the whole thing and to look at it, what we're going to do with all the people that are undocumented immigrants here in this state. What should we do? Should we have them to stay here, which I think is the right way to do, but how do you then include them in our society, how do you make it official, how do you make it legal?"

That sounds like he wants to make them legal, all 10 million of them since it would have to be the entire nation and not just California. We can't do that, we might as well give the country away, it's the same thing. Just saying it encourages more illegal immigration. If Arnold is elected, you can be sure the flood into California will continue. McClintock on the other hand has been consistent from the beginning on prop 187 and his opposition to illegal immigration. I don't see the same type of pandering coming from him.

California elections are determined by voters who are registered as Independents. Independents here tend to be social liberals.

This is exactly where I believe McClintock holds the advantage. Many of these same social liberals, who voted for Reagan in 1980 and '84 support prop 187, and given the choice between him and the racist demogogue Bustamante they will lean towards McClintock if those are the only two. Yes I think the independents will go with Arnold if he stays in, but since Arnold has put the all important "r' before his name, principled Republicans should tell him to get lost if they want more than business as usual.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

I don't see how you have that opinion. Arnold can't grant amnesty, it's a fed issue.

Just saying it, just saying we should make them legal, no matter who it's from encourages more people to try and get in. Republicans, at all levels of government should just say no to anymore pandering.

[TheDon]

Let's face the facts. At the federal level neither party, Republican or Demorat, has, or will, touch illegal immigration from Mexico. In recent memory, it has always been that way. As one who has driven through a US border checkpoint at San Onofre, CA, for decades, I can assure you that is the case.

The border should be controlled by the Feds, but they won't do it.

[BunnySlippers]

You still have not shown where Arnold has said he's raising taxes. You're dreaming ... the usual McClintock supporter. Say hello to your new governor pick: Cruz Bustamante!

[brownie]

I think Arnold is comfortable with his role as a "spoiler" for conservatives. I guess that we should all vote for arnold in order to get liberalism of a lessor degree than Davis or Bustamante. That would be the real pyrric victory.

Whatever happened to trying to achieve conservative goals?

[Reaganwuzthebest]

The border should be controlled by the Feds, but they won't do it.

This is true, which is why I'm a strong supporter of Tom Tancredo.

[My2Cents]

I've gone from an asterisk to double digits in the span of a couple of weeks," he said

Or back to single digits again, depending on the poll you read.

[My2Cents]

With Arnold's "positions" on issues like supporting amnesty for illegal aliens, tax increases and gun control...

I agree that Reagan was the best, but while President he provided amnesty for illegals, signed a tax increase bill in 1986, and signed the Brady Bill. He also didn't eliminate the US Dept. of Education, kept US funding and involvement in the UN, bolted from Lebanon at the first sign of trouble, and never adequately reformed welfare. But he showed an ability to keep his eye on the ball, and go after the big issues (economic prosperity, and defeat of the Soviet empire). Reagan wasn't perfect, but he was still the best, and I think that means we need to cut other Republicans some slack if they are not 100% pure.

[My2Cents]

I agree with Ann Coulter -- It's California we're talking about, and Arnold is about as good as it's going to get as far as a Republican being able to win statewide. I don't like Arnold's stand on social issues, but social issues are secondary to the fiscal and economic crisis in the state, and on these issues I like the noises Arnold has been making (I say "noises" because he still needs to get specific on some of the details). So, I'll take the bad with the good, rather than risk getting another Dem elected who is only bad through-and-through. If it comes down to Arnold or Bustamante (which appears to be the case), I'm voting for Arnold, gladly.

[kidd]

1. He refused to take a pledge not to raise taxes
2. He pledged to raise taxes only if there was a state emergency.
3. California has a state emergency.

1+2+3=Arnold will raise taxes

No politician is going to come out and say directly, "I'm going to raise your taxes to make up for state government bungling". That's political suicide. But, Arnold has given himself an escape clause. A very obvious one.

If you would rather have a republican governor raise taxes instead of a democrat governor to raise taxes, fine. Arnold's the man. I like his movies and he's done well for himself. But I feel the same way about Steven Speilberg.