Posted on 08/27/2003 11:05:47 AM PDT by Pubbie
Sens. John Breaux of Louisiana, John Edwards of North Carolina, Bob Graham of Florida and Ernest Hollings of South Carolina can’t — or won’t — say whether they will seek reelection in 2004.
That complicates the party’s efforts to hold on to its 48 Senate seats and forces other Democrats to put off running until the incumbents decide.
“The indecision of these candidates is the sort of thing that can really have an impact on the party,” said pollster John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International.
“Florida and North Carolina are particularly important because those states have huge implications on the presidential races aside from their own candidacy.” In Edwards’s and Graham’s cases, White House aspirations have pushed the Senate to the sidelines.
North Carolina law says Edwards, 50, can wait until Feb. 27 to make up his mind about running for a second Senate term.
“Senator Edwards has earned the right to run for president,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Brad Woodhouse said.
Woodhouse, who worked on Erskine Bowles’s unsuccessful 2002 Senate bid against North Carolina Republican Elizabeth Dole, added: “We will not put a deadline on the senator’s political future and are confident with the stable of potential Democratic candidates, should the senator choose not to run.”
That stable includes Bowles and former state Rep. Dan Blue, who lost to Bowles in the Democratic primary. Bowles and Edwards met two weeks ago in Raleigh. Both men have remained silent about the meeting.
On the Republican side, Rep. Richard Burr, of Winston-Salem, has raised more than $3 million for a Senate campaign. White House strategist Karl Rove has traveled to North Carolina to help Burr’s bid.
Burr consultant Paul Shumaker called Edwards’s indecision a double-edged sword. “We don’t know who the opponent is going to be, and we can’t focus on a comprehensive timeline. … People are hesitant to commit money.”
North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Bill Cobey sounded a more partisan tone. “John Edwards’s ego is like a runaway train — nationally, he’s running to the left, and back in North Carolina, he’s running to the right.”
Edwards spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri responded: “Obviously the Republicans are not interested in the Democrats’ retaining the Senate seat in 2004, so we are not moved by anything they have to say.”
Meanwhile, Graham, 66, is urging other Democrats to run for his seat — a sign that many Republicans say signals the senator won’t seek a fourth term.
Democratic Reps. Peter Deutsch, Alcee Hastings and Allen Boyd; Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas; and former Education Commissioner Betty Castor have said they will run for the seat if Graham bows out.
“Raising money is a tough sell because of the ambiguity,” Deutsch spokesman Ryan Hampton said, “but we are happy with the $245,000 we raised in the second quarter for the Senate race.”
Graham trails Edwards and all but three of the other announced presidential candidates in fundraising and is showing poorly in New Hampshire and Iowa polls. “We are working under the assumption that Senator Graham will get the presidential nomination from our party,” Hastings spokesman Fred Turner said.
“Senator Graham has earned the right to explore a White House bid, but if he runs for Senate, no Democrat will run against him.”
Florida Republicans are plowing ahead aggressively in their drive to take back the Senate seat — whether that means knocking off Graham or another Democrat.
Rep. Mark Foley has more than $2.8 million in the bank. Bill McCollum, a former congressman from Florida, has just under $500,000.
State House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, of Plant City, and Rep. Dave Weldon, also Republicans, have begun raising money for possible runs but have yet to declare.
Breaux, 59, has put off making a decision about running for reelection until Louisiana voters pick a new governor. That election is scheduled for Oct. 4.
A Republican Party official in Washington said GOP Rep. David Vitter “is very interested in making a run and has $1.1 million on hand to do so.” The three-term Louisiana Republican said he would strongly consider running if Breaux bows out.
“Breaux is unbeatable in Louisiana, but his party isn’t,” Tulane University historian Larry Powell said. “Breaux’s son makes millions as a lobbyist, and I would suspect he has some inclination to do the same.”
Woodhouse said the senators’ failure to make clear their intentions doesn’t matter. “It’s early, and voters aren’t paying attention to these races yet,” he said.
Not so, said Zogby. “Voters are watching what these candidates are doing, and Graham and Edwards need to decide by September or they will do serious damage to their party’s chances.”
Hollings, 81, has yet to say whether he will seek an eighth term in the Senate. Hollings is in a state that has trended strongly Republican in recent years, meaning the senator may be Democrats’ only hope of holding on to the seat. Republicans, including Rep. Jim DeMint and former state Attorney General Charlie Condon, are lining up to run. Hollings’s tepid fundraising this year has fueled speculation that he plans to retire.
“These are deeply personal decisions that these guys are making,” Democratic consultant Peter Fenn said of Hollings and Breaux.
“There are factors that the public cannot understand, personal and political. … I think that the key for members who are … [considering] retirement is to engineer it in such a way as to give their party the best chance to hold that seat.”
Aha! So you're saying he's a Manchurian candidate?
Representative David Vitter (R)
1st Congressional District, Louisiana
Republican, Years of Service: 4
| ACU Ratings for Representative Vitter: | |
| Year 2002 | 100 |
| Year 2001 | 100 |
| Lifetime | 94 |
|
||||||||
Senator John Breaux (D) Louisiana Democrat, Years of Service: 30
|
||||||||
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.