Vegas oddsmaker: Schwarzenegger slim favorite in recall race

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | Aug. 21, 2003 | AP

[FairOpinion]

Odds are California voters will recall Gov. Gray Davis, according to a Las Vegas oddsmaker who makes musclebound Arnold Schwarzenegger a slim favorite to win the election.

Las Vegas oddsmaker America's Line made it a 2-7 sure thing that Davis will be recalled and installed the Republican Schwarzenegger as a 7-5 pick to be the state's next governor.

[FairOpinion]

Republican Schwarzenegger as a 7-5 pick to be the state's next governor.

Peter Ueberroth (12-1) and businessman Bill Simon (20-1), are followed by two candidates at 40-1 odds, independent commentator Arianna Huffington and Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock. Green Party candidate Peter Camejo is a 50-1 pick.

[FairOpinion]

And at tradesports.com:

http://www.tradesports.com/

The value is the % chance they think it will happen.

Arnold: 52-55
Bustamante: 28-31
Simon 1.9-2.9
McClintock 0.6 -2.0

[DoctorZIn]

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[Steve Van Doorn]

"Simon 1.9-2.9"

Seems like a sure bet to me to bet against him.

[goldstategop]

The House bets on Arnold. That Davis is gone is a sure bet. No one is pretending any more he has a chance, not even the liberals.

[TheAngryClam]

Any bookie that has Uberroth over Simon or McClintock is insane.

[FairOpinion]

Ueberroth probably has more money than McClintock, not that either of them has a chance.

[Hugin]

Davis, a Democrat, is a 5-2 choice to retain his seat Oct. 7.

I think that should be a 2-5 underdog.

[FairOpinion]

Davis, a Democrat, is a 5-2 choice to retain his seat Oct. 7.
I think that should be a 2-5 underdog.

==

I think you are right,. It's a misprint.

One odds maker said this:

"Las Vegas oddsmaker America's Line made it a 2-7 sure thing that Davis will be recalled",

so the other one is 2-5 as you said, instead of the way they printed it in the article. It's 5-2 that he will be recalled, not that he would retain his seat.

"

[TheAngryClam]

Actually, I take back the insanity. They're trying to drum up business on a sure loser.

Just like conservatives will be sure losers should Arnold be elected.

[FairOpinion]

"Just like conservatives will be sure losers should Arnold be elected. "

===

And the entire state will be sure losers if Bustamante gets elected.

[TheAngryClam]

Republicans will hold the line against his tax hikes at least.

They won't against Arnold's. We saw this in 1991.

[zbigreddogz]

No, they are not. Your insane to think Simon or McClintock have a chance. The deal is that Ubrroth is liked by people other then diehard conservatives who do nothing but listen to talk radio all day. McClintock and Simon arn't. If these people continue to support them, we will end up with Cruz. Mark my words.

[TheAngryClam]

As I've repeatedly argued, Cruz is better for anti-tax people than Arnold is.

As we saw in 1991, Republicans cave when one of their own want to raise taxes. Since Arnold has repeatedly sent up "raise taxes" trial balloons, it's a good bet that he will eventually propose some hikes, and that the GOP won't resist them.

At least they'll hold the line to block Cruz's.

Also, this isn't 1984. Uberroth is a has-been.

[John Valentine]

You are completely misguided in your thinking. There is no way that a Demoncrat controlled legislature is going to deny Cruz Bustamante anything he wants, regardless what the neutered Republicans might try.

Remember, if Bustamante wins the recall, he will give the entire Demoncrat apparatus a new lease on life. And you will be helping make that happen.

Mark my words.

[TheAngryClam]

2/3 requirement to raise taxes.

[fieldmarshaldj]

It's time to FReep this thread, folks. A lot of RINO barf/anti-McClintock hate here.

[Grand Old Partisan]

"I'd rather the victory of some of my policies than the defeat of all of them." -- Abraham Lincoln

THAT is why I am for Arnold, and not McClintock or Simon.

[TheAngryClam]

Tell me what ONE Republican policy Arnold supports.

"I'm for the kids" and "I'm for business" don't count, because Democrats say the same blather.

You like Arnold's love for gun control? How about abortions? How about opposition to the Racial Privacy Initiative (Proposition 54)? How about an openness to tax increases? Gay adoption?

Well?

[Grand Old Partisan]

Arnold does not need your vote. Go ahead and vote for Cruz.