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Kentucky Gubernatorial Race is Test for Bush on Economy
The New York Times ^ | August 13, 2003 | James Dao

Posted on 08/16/2003 8:16:05 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat

LOUISVILLE, Ky., Aug. 13 — Improbable as it sounds, the first major test of President Bush's vulnerability on the weak economy may come this November in a state that he won handily in 2000, where his favorable ratings are still high and where Republicans hold seven of eight Congressional seats.

No one said Kentucky politics was predictable.

With a tenacity that has surprised his opponent and some supporters, the Democratic candidate for governor, Attorney General Ben Chandler, has attacked Mr. Bush's stewardship of the economy, contending that Republican policies have drained Kentucky of 56,000 jobs, aided the wealthy at the expense of the poor and helped drill a gaping hole in the state budget.

"It's hard to believe that just three years ago, Kentucky had a surplus, had an economy that was growing," Mr. Chandler, 43, said Monday at a campaign event outside a shuttered I.B.M. plant in Lexington. "What has changed is the team in charge in Washington. And my opponent is in the starting lineup."

He has mocked his Republican opponent, Representative Ernie Fletcher, as "the job terminator." He jokes that Mr. Fletcher's motto is "leave no job behind," a jab at President Bush's vow to "leave no child behind."

The state Democratic Party has even created a Web site featuring a comic-strip depiction of an evil emperor — President Bush — conspiring with Mr. Fletcher to wreck the economy.

With his scathing attacks on the White House, Mr. Chandler has turned Kentucky, which has voted with the winner in every presidential election since 1964, into a closely watched bellwether of the 2004 presidential campaign, analysts say.

If Mr. Chandler, considered the underdog, can ride voters' anxieties about unemployment to victory, it could give the Democrats momentum in their seemingly uphill quest to unseat the president, Democrats and political analysts assert.

"He has a powerful message," said Nicole Harburger, spokeswoman for the Democratic Governors Association. "I would not be surprised if the economy and unemployment become the seminal issues in many campaigns."

Kentucky Republicans seem bemused by the attacks, deriding Mr. Chandler as a "guinea pig" for national Democratic strategists. If anything, they have wrapped themselves tighter around the president, who has a 70 percent favorable rating in Kentucky, according to their polls.

"If they'd like to run against President Bush," said Senator Mitch McConnell, the state's most powerful Republican and a mentor to Mr. Fletcher, "I question whether they are smart enough to take over the job."

Still, Mr. Chandler's assault seems to have put Mr. Fletcher on the defensive. In campaign events, he acknowledges that Kentucky's economy is struggling and that job creation should be among the new governor's top priorities.

But Mr. Fletcher places the blame on the Democratic governor, Paul E. Patton, who because of term limits must leave office at the end of the year. And Mr. Fletcher has made Democratic longevity in the governor's mansion — there has not been a Republican governor in 32 years — his central campaign theme.

"Ben talks about change," Mr. Fletcher, 50, said in a debate in Louisville on Tuesday. "The biggest change he wants is to move his desk 100 feet."

Mr. Patton casts a broad shadow over the race in another way: his administration has been racked by scandal.

Last September, the governor admitted having a two-year affair with a Kentucky businesswoman, reversing his earlier denials. The woman, Tina Conner, was indicted in July on federal charges that she used false information to apply for state highway contracts. She has pleaded not guilty and has sued Mr. Patton, contending that he pressured state officials to help her during the affair, then harassed her after she broke it off. He denies both assertions.

More indictments are considered likely, and the trial is set for October, just weeks before the election.

In June, Mr. Patton also pardoned two top aides and two union officials who had been indicted on charges of violating state campaign finance laws in 1995. The charges were brought by Mr. Chandler, who angrily called on the governor to resign when the pardons were announced.

What is more, the state auditor said this month that more than 200 computers in the state's transportation agency had been used to search for pornographic Web sites. The F.B.I. has joined an investigation into the matter.

Mr. Chandler has tried to distance himself from Mr. Patton, calling himself a "maverick" who had angered the Democratic establishment by indicting the governor's aides. But Republicans are not letting him off the hook.

"We have the most scandal-ridden, embarrassing administration we've had in years," Mr. Fletcher said in an interview. "To have him sitting in the middle of it as the chief law enforcement officer, it's going to be impossible for him to dissociate himself from it."

Despite Mr. Chandler's attacks on the president's policies, the prescriptions he offers for reviving the economy do not differ markedly from those of Mr. Fletcher.

Mr. Chandler generally supports tax cuts, though he says he would give more relief to lower income families. Both men have endorsed tax breaks to encourage job creation and programs to retrain displaced workers. Neither has issued a detailed plan for closing a projected $274 million state budget shortfall, beyond trimming the state work force and cutting "waste and fraud."

They do differ on the issue of gambling. Mr. Chandler has called for allowing slot machines in racetracks to generate revenue for schools. Mr. Fletcher has said he opposes gambling, but would be willing to hold a referendum on the issue.

Mr. Chandler, a former state auditor, learned about politics at the knee of his grandfather, A. B. (Happy) Chandler, a former governor and commissioner of baseball who epitomized a back-slapping Kentucky style of charisma. Mr. Fletcher, a former practicing physician and fighter pilot, is more reserved and formal, though he shows flashes of an acerbic wit.

Their contrasting styles were evident Monday night at a political picnic at Red's Fish House, a popular Owensboro restaurant. Mr. Chandler, sweating and garrulous, pumped hands and grabbed shoulders with the vigor of a masseur. Mr. Fletcher, stiff and cerebral, talked quietly with supporters and at times found himself standing alone.

At Red's, some Democrats expressed concerns that Mr. Chandler's attacks on the president could alienate conservative Democrats.

But many Democrats at Red's also said they thought Mr. Chandler — who barely survived a bruising primary and is running several points behind Mr. Fletcher in public polls — had few alternatives.

"What else do you have?" asked Wendell H. Ford, a former Democratic senator. "The only record the opponent has is in Congress."

Meanwhile, Republicans seem energized by the opportunity to retake the governor's office. The White House has dispatched the presidential political strategist Karl Rove, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and a Bush brother, Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, to appear at fund-raisers for Mr. Fletcher.

Asked if he expected the president himself to campaign for him, Mr. Fletcher said, "I sure hope so." Mr. Chandler said he would also welcome a visit by Mr. Bush.

"We'll ask him if he brought along any jobs," Mr. Chandler said.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky
KEYWORDS: 2003; bush; chandler; economy; fletcher; kentucky; teamkentucky
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The Democrats have not only controlled the governorship, but ALL of our state offices for the past 30+ years, some for as long as 80+ years.

Here's our cleanup crew for November:

Trey Grayson for Secretary of State!
(Remember Florida in 2000? Having the above office is VERY important)

Linda Greenwell for State Auditor!

Ernie Fletcher for Governor!

Adam Koenig for Treasurer!

Richie Farmer for Agriculture Commissioner!

www.teamkentucky.org

1 posted on 08/16/2003 8:16:06 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Republican Wildcat
Thanks for posting this interesting NYT article. (I think the actual date of the article is August 14th). From NYT:

Their contrasting styles were evident Monday night at a political picnic at Red's Fish House, a popular Owensboro restaurant. [The Dem candidate,] Mr. Chandler, sweating and garrulous, pumped hands and grabbed shoulders with the vigor of a masseur. [The GOP Candidate,] Mr. Fletcher, stiff and cerebral, talked quietly with supporters and at times found himself standing alone.

Now I wonder if a person who "talks quietly" with supporters and is "cerebral" has any chance at all in politics. I hope so, because I think we need more people with this kind of style. Fletcher sounds like a listener, like FL's Gov Bush.
2 posted on 08/16/2003 8:19:39 AM PDT by summer
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To: fieldmarshaldj; summer; Howlin; Miss Marple; ken5050; BlueOneGolf; MeeknMing; PhiKapMom; ...
That "job terminator" thing mentioned in the article...they've been sending a guy in a large Fletcher mask dressed like the terminator to literally follow Fletcher everywhere he goes. It has disrupted many fundraisers and even went all the way to Bell County and disrupted a private GOP meeting. The Democrats are relentless and dirty and they see a very real possibility of losing their system of graft, corruption, patronage, and bribery that they have depended on for so many years by controlling all of the State government offices. There is no telling what they might do next.
3 posted on 08/16/2003 8:29:29 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat (Help us elect Republicans in Kentucky! Click on my name for links to all the 2003 candidates!)
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To: Republican Wildcat
No matter what lie the rat media says, this one is a win break even for us. The rats have held Ky hostage for so long that it is a reliable rat state. If a rat wins in a rat state: SO WHAT? But if Flectcher wins, it's a big loss for the rodents and a big win for the American team.
4 posted on 08/16/2003 8:36:05 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
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To: Republican Wildcat
What a trashy article. But then, what else would one expect from the NYT?
5 posted on 08/16/2003 8:38:10 AM PDT by Eala (When politicians speak of children, count the spoons. - National Review Editors)
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To: Eala
I thought this was weird:

Last September, the [Dem] governor admitted having a two-year affair with a Kentucky businesswoman, reversing his earlier denials. The woman, Tina Conner, was indicted in July on federal charges that she used false information to apply for state highway contracts. She has pleaded not guilty and has sued Mr. Patton, contending that he pressured state officials to help her during the affair, then harassed her after she broke it off. He denies both assertions.

Did this NOT upset Dem voters in Kentucky? Do they just expect everyone to be having affairs? I would think the GOP candidate has a real chance after the mess in this KY gov's mansion.
6 posted on 08/16/2003 8:45:30 AM PDT by summer
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: jmaroneps37
THIS looks interesting - a link posted on GOP Fletcher's web page, about Dem supporting him. Maybe KY Dem voters DON'T expect every gov to have affairs, and they actually someone to do some work for the people!
8 posted on 08/16/2003 8:53:16 AM PDT by summer
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To: Republican Wildcat
The only race that is goofy is the one for AG - Greg Stumbo the socialist is running against Jack Wood the slackwitted, corrupt flake. For comic relief, Gatewood Galbraith is in with his pro marijuana crusade.

The rest of the slate is great.

9 posted on 08/16/2003 8:53:23 AM PDT by Chancellor Palpatine ("what if the hokey pokey is really what its all about?" - Jean Paul Sartre)
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To: Chancellor Palpatine
LOL...
10 posted on 08/16/2003 8:55:15 AM PDT by summer
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To: summer
Did this NOT upset Dem voters in Kentucky? Do they just expect everyone to be having affairs?

After their defense and adoration of The Unspeakable, through his impeachment and beyond, it would seem they're no longer in a position to demand honesty and morality from their own. So... if you're a Democrat you can do what you please -- as long as you don't make yourself the certain loser in a recall election.

11 posted on 08/16/2003 8:56:14 AM PDT by Eala (When politicians speak of children, count the spoons. - National Review Editors)
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To: Eala
I have more faith in some Dem VOTERS than you! (I can't say the same for Dem LEADERSHIP though.) I do see more than a few Dem voters voting GOP here in FL. Seems to me that Dem voters are in the midst of a lot of change.

BTW, there's no way Gov Bush was able to win his re-election in this state in Nov 2002 without winning the votes of indpendents and some Dems, in addition to his GOP base. But he did win, and in a landslide. His approval rating has remained consistent with the Nov polls results.
12 posted on 08/16/2003 9:01:17 AM PDT by summer
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To: DavidBrown
Is this actually a close election?///How are things looking in Kentucky?

Every election is close in Ky...when 'RATs control the vote-counting...as Stalin had said. :|

13 posted on 08/16/2003 9:04:44 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Just because you're paranoid,doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. :)
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To: Republican Wildcat
That "job terminator" thing mentioned in the article...There is no telling what they might do next.

the 'RATS, don't believe in "Clean Elections"...we know the history, they ('RATs) re-invent themselves every four years...and their Media WHORES, shall never call them on it.

14 posted on 08/16/2003 9:20:52 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Just because you're paranoid,doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. :)
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To: DavidBrown
Fletcher has a marginal lead in most polls I've seen, but nothing to get comfortable with. It looks like the Ag. Commission race is ours. There is also an Attorney General race, but the GOP candidate doesn't have a website, so I couldn't post a link above (although he is featured on the Team Kentucky site). It seemed as though that race was safely in Dem hands, but with Gatewood Galbraith, an independent and former Democrat jumping in, it could siphon votes away from the Dem candidate, so that race is now wide open, IMHO. Koenig faces an uphill battle against the only Dem incumbent running. I think he is only chance is a Fletcher landslide that carries him in on his coattails. The Auditor's race and the Secretary of State's races are both fairly even at this point, waiting for something to tip the scale. I'm following the Secretary of State's race closely, and let me tell you, if Grayson's Dem opponent manages to capture that office, it will be a disaster. He is unqualified and just wants a position to give himself and his friends cozy government jobs on the taxpayers' tab. Not to mention he is arguably the most corrupt candidate on the Dem side...quite an accomplishment given the other candidates they have fielded. That is certainly not someone we want in charge of our elections.
15 posted on 08/16/2003 9:32:17 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat (Help us elect Republicans in Kentucky! Click on my name for links to all the 2003 candidates!)
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To: summer
But he did win, and in a landslide. His approval rating has remained consistent with the Nov polls results.

The realignment of the States South of the Mason Dixon line and the New England States started in 1968. It started the process where the liberal voters who were once in the Republican party moved to the Democratic party and the Conservatives who were in the Democratic party moved to the Republican party.

Until the late 60's all states south of the Mason Dixon line were reliable Democratic states. Win a southern Democratic primary and you were in office. It was rare for the Republican to even have a candidate. The south was made up of one party states. Likewise most of New England was Republican territory from the civil war until the 1960s.

Both parties had liberal and conservative members in significant numbers. Thus an FDR could overcome a revolt by conservative Southern Democrat senators by gaining the votes of North East liberal Republican Senators. Gloria Snowe is the one remaining example of a New England liberal Republican.

The Southern realignment took place first in the heart of Dixie. South Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi moved from solid Democrat states to solid Republican states. But at first the southern states only voted for Republican presidents. Then when Democratic senators and house members retired they elected Republicans to replace them. Finally a majority of voters moved from the Democratic party to the Republican party. But their votes on federal and state offices changed before their party registration changed.

There is nothing different about the realignment of Kentucky except that it is happening after it happened in the core southern states.

The transition in liberal New England is nearly complete and that has made the nation a tie in many local elections. But the transition in some southern states like Kentucky and West Virginia is just now showing up. When the realignment is complete the Republicans will have a clear national majority.

When realignment is complete the Democrats will have a real burden. They will have to win a lot more than half the centrist voters to win nationally. The Republicans will have to win less than half the centrists to win. That will begin to move the nation to he right.

There were more Democrats than Republicans for nearly all of the last 70 years of the 20th century. It moved the nation to the left. The next 20 to 40 years will move the nation to the right.

The democrats are trying to buck the tide and hang on to what was once theirs. They are not doing very well. They are moving left in a nation that is moving right.

16 posted on 08/16/2003 9:33:43 AM PDT by Common Tator
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To: jmaroneps37
Nationally speaking, you have a point...however, we in Kentucky don't want to be stuck with this cartel any longer.
17 posted on 08/16/2003 9:34:06 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat (Help us elect Republicans in Kentucky! Click on my name for links to all the 2003 candidates!)
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To: skinkinthegrass
I think things may be a little less fraudelent this time...the Feds indicted a lot of those folks over in Eastern Kentucky and are keeping close tabs on that area. I think the GOP is also trying to get more poll watchers out there in these suspect areas in this and other parts of the State to prevent the vote-buying and corruption that has occurred in the past (especially with Patton's first election in 1995).
18 posted on 08/16/2003 9:39:48 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat (Help us elect Republicans in Kentucky! Click on my name for links to all the 2003 candidates!)
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To: Chancellor Palpatine
You're right. Not exactly the most stellar line up of candidates in that race...I think Jack Wood would cooperate with the rest of the slate, however, should they be elected and find evidence of wrongdoing that needs prosecution. I don't see Greg Stumbo cooperating. He also will be running for governor from the first day he gets in office, should he win. Gatewood's entry could siphon votes away from Stumbo...and he may pick up steam, because he's brought in Ventura's former campaign manager.
19 posted on 08/16/2003 9:48:24 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat (Help us elect Republicans in Kentucky! Click on my name for links to all the 2003 candidates!)
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To: summer
While very important for candidates on both sides to attend, the Red's Fish house event is normally loaded up with more Democrat voters than Republican voters.
20 posted on 08/16/2003 9:51:13 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat (Help us elect Republicans in Kentucky! Click on my name for links to all the 2003 candidates!)
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