Posted on 08/16/2003 8:16:05 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
LOUISVILLE, Ky., Aug. 13 Improbable as it sounds, the first major test of President Bush's vulnerability on the weak economy may come this November in a state that he won handily in 2000, where his favorable ratings are still high and where Republicans hold seven of eight Congressional seats.
No one said Kentucky politics was predictable.
With a tenacity that has surprised his opponent and some supporters, the Democratic candidate for governor, Attorney General Ben Chandler, has attacked Mr. Bush's stewardship of the economy, contending that Republican policies have drained Kentucky of 56,000 jobs, aided the wealthy at the expense of the poor and helped drill a gaping hole in the state budget.
"It's hard to believe that just three years ago, Kentucky had a surplus, had an economy that was growing," Mr. Chandler, 43, said Monday at a campaign event outside a shuttered I.B.M. plant in Lexington. "What has changed is the team in charge in Washington. And my opponent is in the starting lineup."
He has mocked his Republican opponent, Representative Ernie Fletcher, as "the job terminator." He jokes that Mr. Fletcher's motto is "leave no job behind," a jab at President Bush's vow to "leave no child behind."
The state Democratic Party has even created a Web site featuring a comic-strip depiction of an evil emperor President Bush conspiring with Mr. Fletcher to wreck the economy.
With his scathing attacks on the White House, Mr. Chandler has turned Kentucky, which has voted with the winner in every presidential election since 1964, into a closely watched bellwether of the 2004 presidential campaign, analysts say.
If Mr. Chandler, considered the underdog, can ride voters' anxieties about unemployment to victory, it could give the Democrats momentum in their seemingly uphill quest to unseat the president, Democrats and political analysts assert.
"He has a powerful message," said Nicole Harburger, spokeswoman for the Democratic Governors Association. "I would not be surprised if the economy and unemployment become the seminal issues in many campaigns."
Kentucky Republicans seem bemused by the attacks, deriding Mr. Chandler as a "guinea pig" for national Democratic strategists. If anything, they have wrapped themselves tighter around the president, who has a 70 percent favorable rating in Kentucky, according to their polls.
"If they'd like to run against President Bush," said Senator Mitch McConnell, the state's most powerful Republican and a mentor to Mr. Fletcher, "I question whether they are smart enough to take over the job."
Still, Mr. Chandler's assault seems to have put Mr. Fletcher on the defensive. In campaign events, he acknowledges that Kentucky's economy is struggling and that job creation should be among the new governor's top priorities.
But Mr. Fletcher places the blame on the Democratic governor, Paul E. Patton, who because of term limits must leave office at the end of the year. And Mr. Fletcher has made Democratic longevity in the governor's mansion there has not been a Republican governor in 32 years his central campaign theme.
"Ben talks about change," Mr. Fletcher, 50, said in a debate in Louisville on Tuesday. "The biggest change he wants is to move his desk 100 feet."
Mr. Patton casts a broad shadow over the race in another way: his administration has been racked by scandal.
Last September, the governor admitted having a two-year affair with a Kentucky businesswoman, reversing his earlier denials. The woman, Tina Conner, was indicted in July on federal charges that she used false information to apply for state highway contracts. She has pleaded not guilty and has sued Mr. Patton, contending that he pressured state officials to help her during the affair, then harassed her after she broke it off. He denies both assertions.
More indictments are considered likely, and the trial is set for October, just weeks before the election.
In June, Mr. Patton also pardoned two top aides and two union officials who had been indicted on charges of violating state campaign finance laws in 1995. The charges were brought by Mr. Chandler, who angrily called on the governor to resign when the pardons were announced.
What is more, the state auditor said this month that more than 200 computers in the state's transportation agency had been used to search for pornographic Web sites. The F.B.I. has joined an investigation into the matter.
Mr. Chandler has tried to distance himself from Mr. Patton, calling himself a "maverick" who had angered the Democratic establishment by indicting the governor's aides. But Republicans are not letting him off the hook.
"We have the most scandal-ridden, embarrassing administration we've had in years," Mr. Fletcher said in an interview. "To have him sitting in the middle of it as the chief law enforcement officer, it's going to be impossible for him to dissociate himself from it."
Despite Mr. Chandler's attacks on the president's policies, the prescriptions he offers for reviving the economy do not differ markedly from those of Mr. Fletcher.
Mr. Chandler generally supports tax cuts, though he says he would give more relief to lower income families. Both men have endorsed tax breaks to encourage job creation and programs to retrain displaced workers. Neither has issued a detailed plan for closing a projected $274 million state budget shortfall, beyond trimming the state work force and cutting "waste and fraud."
They do differ on the issue of gambling. Mr. Chandler has called for allowing slot machines in racetracks to generate revenue for schools. Mr. Fletcher has said he opposes gambling, but would be willing to hold a referendum on the issue.
Mr. Chandler, a former state auditor, learned about politics at the knee of his grandfather, A. B. (Happy) Chandler, a former governor and commissioner of baseball who epitomized a back-slapping Kentucky style of charisma. Mr. Fletcher, a former practicing physician and fighter pilot, is more reserved and formal, though he shows flashes of an acerbic wit.
Their contrasting styles were evident Monday night at a political picnic at Red's Fish House, a popular Owensboro restaurant. Mr. Chandler, sweating and garrulous, pumped hands and grabbed shoulders with the vigor of a masseur. Mr. Fletcher, stiff and cerebral, talked quietly with supporters and at times found himself standing alone.
At Red's, some Democrats expressed concerns that Mr. Chandler's attacks on the president could alienate conservative Democrats.
But many Democrats at Red's also said they thought Mr. Chandler who barely survived a bruising primary and is running several points behind Mr. Fletcher in public polls had few alternatives.
"What else do you have?" asked Wendell H. Ford, a former Democratic senator. "The only record the opponent has is in Congress."
Meanwhile, Republicans seem energized by the opportunity to retake the governor's office. The White House has dispatched the presidential political strategist Karl Rove, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and a Bush brother, Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, to appear at fund-raisers for Mr. Fletcher.
Asked if he expected the president himself to campaign for him, Mr. Fletcher said, "I sure hope so." Mr. Chandler said he would also welcome a visit by Mr. Bush.
"We'll ask him if he brought along any jobs," Mr. Chandler said.
Here's our cleanup crew for November:
Trey Grayson for Secretary of State!
(Remember Florida in 2000? Having the above office is VERY important)
Linda Greenwell for State Auditor!
Richie Farmer for Agriculture Commissioner!
The rest of the slate is great.
After their defense and adoration of The Unspeakable, through his impeachment and beyond, it would seem they're no longer in a position to demand honesty and morality from their own. So... if you're a Democrat you can do what you please -- as long as you don't make yourself the certain loser in a recall election.
Every election is close in Ky...when 'RATs control the vote-counting...as Stalin had said. :|
the 'RATS, don't believe in "Clean Elections"...we know the history, they ('RATs) re-invent themselves every four years...and their Media WHORES, shall never call them on it.
The realignment of the States South of the Mason Dixon line and the New England States started in 1968. It started the process where the liberal voters who were once in the Republican party moved to the Democratic party and the Conservatives who were in the Democratic party moved to the Republican party.
Until the late 60's all states south of the Mason Dixon line were reliable Democratic states. Win a southern Democratic primary and you were in office. It was rare for the Republican to even have a candidate. The south was made up of one party states. Likewise most of New England was Republican territory from the civil war until the 1960s.
Both parties had liberal and conservative members in significant numbers. Thus an FDR could overcome a revolt by conservative Southern Democrat senators by gaining the votes of North East liberal Republican Senators. Gloria Snowe is the one remaining example of a New England liberal Republican.
The Southern realignment took place first in the heart of Dixie. South Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi moved from solid Democrat states to solid Republican states. But at first the southern states only voted for Republican presidents. Then when Democratic senators and house members retired they elected Republicans to replace them. Finally a majority of voters moved from the Democratic party to the Republican party. But their votes on federal and state offices changed before their party registration changed.
There is nothing different about the realignment of Kentucky except that it is happening after it happened in the core southern states.
The transition in liberal New England is nearly complete and that has made the nation a tie in many local elections. But the transition in some southern states like Kentucky and West Virginia is just now showing up. When the realignment is complete the Republicans will have a clear national majority.
When realignment is complete the Democrats will have a real burden. They will have to win a lot more than half the centrist voters to win nationally. The Republicans will have to win less than half the centrists to win. That will begin to move the nation to he right.
There were more Democrats than Republicans for nearly all of the last 70 years of the 20th century. It moved the nation to the left. The next 20 to 40 years will move the nation to the right.
The democrats are trying to buck the tide and hang on to what was once theirs. They are not doing very well. They are moving left in a nation that is moving right.
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