[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Is there one single stance Arnold has taken that you agree with?"

Yes, that he wants to defeat the democrat that seeks to replace Gray Davis. That's ALL that matters.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"One more thing--the fact that he voted for prop 187 does not mean he plans to enforce it or appeal it."

And the alternative would be someone who voted against prop 187. Would that make you happier??

The ignorants amaze me in what they'll find to bitch about.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"What kind of Republican breaks Reagan's 11th Commandment."

McClintock wants to unconstitutionally void (impare) the electrical contracts Davis entered into with the providers. That alone makes me believe he's not a conservative and NOT a republican. No 11th Commandment issues here.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Arnold is an unknown. If he wins, we have a Republican Party that has lost its social values. If he loses, do we have anything left at all?"

If people like you don't consider Arnold a 'real' republican, how can you say the party loses its social values with his election? If he's not one of you, what does it matter? Remember, its about WINNING elections, not losing honorably.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"No wonder you don't like Tom. You are pro-government and he isn't."

Yeah, I happen to have a great deal of respect for police officers and fire fighters. If you or Tom has a problem with these heros, I sure hope you'll make that public so the voters know where he really stands on 'government'.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"I can't see how someone who believes what you do could ever support Arnold Schwarzenegger, an anti-gun, pro-abortion, pro-homosexual agenda liberal."

First think I look for in a candidate is whether he can win. Once I find that quality, I stop bitching about the others that don't matter. You should try it sometime. Maybe you'll actually see one of those yard signs on your lawn contain the name of a victor.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Who's up for telling Bill Simon the good/bad news?"

Well, I would rather see Simon get out of the race. That would leave McClintock, who's really just 3rd string. He'll not be able to spend the money that Simon could and thus, would do less damage to the champ. (Arnold)

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

Listen, Rove is a mastermind. He needs to insure that wacko candidates don't tear down the hard work he's done with the president in reaching out to difference consituencies. Its all about getting Bush reelected.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"News Flash... Arnold's lead is collapsing faster than a dotcom stock in April of 2000. Meanwhile, McClintock is come on strong."

LOL Gotta bump this one. In 30 days it will provide a great deal of humor.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I still stand by my prediction that this won't be close-- Arnold easily. We'll see, I guess.

[Austin Willard Wright]

Do you prefer a GOP winner will immediately so do something Bustamente cannot do under current conditions: raises taxes?

[Austin Willard Wright]

Why should they "bail?" To make it possible for Arnold to do something Davis has not been able to do: raise taxes? What possible good could that do anyone?

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Let each candidate take his best shot until mid September or so. Then let each trailing candidate drop out and campaign with the front runner, whoever that is."

As an Arnold supporter I would be happy to see that happen. Do you think those that support the 'backwash' candidates (Simon, Huffington, McClintock) are willing to go for this approach?

[Chancellor Palpatine]

A large percentage of the Libertarians will vote Bustamonte in order to keep a Republican out of office, meanwhile, the Greens will be shifting and voting Bustamonte.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Oh, and just wait for those high production value TV ads for Arnold. They'll look like ads for GE or something. They'll make him look like a business leader and community activist and philanthropist without equal. He should hire Craig Benson's ad team. His ads looked like they were advertising a university or a state (you've seen the state ads that promote business investment and such in places like MI or OH or PA, etc.) or something. They were so different from regular political ads that you watched them and didn't just flip by. They were high energy and very effectiving at giving people a certain positive perception about what Craig stands for-- progress, energy, accomplishment, etc.

[Kevin Curry]

If McClintock and Simon were real conservatives, they would do whatever it took - including withdrawing from the race - to insure a democrat was not elected.

If Schwarzenegger were a real conservative, he would wouldn't have to worry about Simon or McClintock.

Arnold needs to address his problem--his SERIOUS problem--with social conservatives. If he insists on remaining liberal-social pure, he cannot complain about the lack of support from social conservatives.

[Austin Willard Wright]

You seem to assume that Arnold is a "fiscal conservative?" He is not, of course, and that is where the main problem lies.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Arnold needs to address his problem--his SERIOUS problem--with social conservatives. If he insists on remaining liberal-social pure, he cannot complain about the lack of support from social conservatives."

And if he doesn't? You're ok with the Lt Governor taking over the Governor's office? You can't seriously believe that McClintock or Simon can win? Both were clearly rejected not a year ago by the voters.

[Austin Willard Wright]

The polls indicate that Californians love bigger and bigger government: whether in the Arnold or Bustamente form. If they want to lie in their slop, why should conservatives or libertarians make it easier for them to do so with a clear conscience?

[bradactor]

That was exactly my thought the first time I saw the guy on tv.
Brad