[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[FairOpinion]

And from the article reporting on the same poll in the WP:

""I don't think anybody in California would have predicted that Cruz would be ahead of Arnold at this point," said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Government Studies at the University of California at Berkeley. The support for the three other Republicans, he said, "shows the fractured field of Republicans is really hurting Schwarzenegger. He could have a big lead."

Poll Places Bustamante In Lead to Succeed Davis

[B Knotts]

It's not only personal with Rove, though, IMO. I think he wants to create a dominant, centrist GOP, with a smaller minority party on either side of it (Democrats on the left, some new party on the right). Kind of like New Labour in the UK, or the Liberal Party in Canada, Principles are out the window.

Now that prescription drugs are done, look for HillaryCare Lite. I can just feel it coming.

[Robert_Paulson2]

The guy is a doofus.

that's putting it nicely...

[Pubbie]

"I was a political consultant for 6 gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns in 2002. Let me tell you, Simon is an idiot and his staff was as incompetant as they come. Karl Rove had nothing to do with that."

What do you think of what happened in New Jersey and Arizona?

I didn't follow those too closely, but as far as I could tell, Schundler was also incompetent and it had not much to do with Rove.

Don't remember much about Arizona... :(

[Pubbie]

With all due respect, It sounds like Parsky had much more to do with Simon's defeat than Rove did.

It was Parsky's decision not to fund a GOTV effort not Rove's.

The worst that can be said of Rove is that he delegated authority for the California race to the wrong man, but still Rove did not actively sabotage Simon as far as I can tell.

[McGavin999]

Your Governess is a demon sent straight from hell.

You're absolutely right. The only reason she got in was because the Arizona republicans insisted on doing exactly what the California republicans are doing right now. The result is a governor who wants to throw open the borders (Gov. Cruz anyone?), is issuing executive orders faster than Clinton, and is running the state government like a mafia family.

[Susannah]

My conservative Arizona friends/family are in Payson and Cottonwood. They also complain about how liberal Arizona is becoming.

In an earlier thread, I noticed that Gilbert, AZ was listed as one of the fastest population growths for the past year.

There are some organized conservative groups in Arizona. I liked the website http://www.azfire.org where they expose EnvironMENTALists.

[McGavin999]

I've lived here all my life. Barry Goldwater wasn't an exceptional republican, he was the norm. I absolutely HATE what's happening to my great state.

[The Old Hoosier]

McClintock has been hovering there for days, not weeks, and that's only if you compare this with the Survey USA poll. McClintock has actually doubled his support over the last poll that was taken.

Schwarzenegger is only going to decline from here. His recent media appearances confirm that he doesn't know a damn thing about California or its issues.

People were star-struck, but probably it won't last.

And as for Bustamante, he's not going to get Aztlan. That's what the Pentagon is there for.

[Susannah]

"The Governor of California has nothing to do with abortion. It is a non-issue in this campaign, is the Terminator the perfect conservative, no. Can he start California on the long road back from the liberal wilderness, yes. "

Agree. My plan is to support McClintock until I see his numbers as unelectable, then I will vote Arnold.

I would like to see all of the Republican candidates drop from the race EXCEPT Arnold and McClintock. Gray Davis has a history of throwing dirt on his opponents; so, it's good to have an alternate to Arnold if Davis smears him beyond repair.

[Carry_Okie]

I said he was accountable for putting Parsky there. I didn't say he caused it. It was his ideological preference and antipathy to conservatives that drove the choice. In that respect, it stands.

[ambrose]

Save Prop. 13, Vote McClintock!

[ambrose]

Bustamante won't raise our property taxes, Arnold - apparently - will.

[ambrose]

I'd rather have Governor Bustamante and Proposition 13 than Governor Arnie and see Proposition 13 repealed.

[Pubbie]

Ok.

I'm not a huge fan of Rove - mainly because of his "Hispandering" "strategy".

On the other hand, his candidate recruitment abilities for Senate races are excellent.

I have sort of a love - hate opinion of him.

[ambrose]

Arnold can win, McClintock cant.

News Flash... Arnold's lead is collapsing faster than a dotcom stock in April of 2000. Meanwhile, McClintock is come on strong.

Tortoise vs The Hare.

[Carry_Okie]

I see that it's time for a hare razing scheme.

[ambrose]

Assuming Arnold was in single digits, and Tom was in double digits would you still want Arnold over Tom???

We know the answer to that one.

[ambrose]

I've got an idea for next time around. Let's run Clinton as a Republican. He could win easily!

Bwahaha.

[ambrose]

I'm just going on historic trends with the Field poll. It seems to have a significant liberal bias build in.

Davis is polling lower than Nixon in August of '74. You think they're biased?