[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[montag813]

Sigh, I'm sick of Californians moving to Arizona and trying to make this once conservative state as liberal as California.

Your Governess is a demon sent straight from hell.

[Carry_Okie]

If anything, I think they'd have liked Davis in there next year to continue California voter discontent with the Democrats.

Of course, but once that they saw that the conservative grassroots was going to be successful in making the recall happen, they decided to highjack it, with their Riordan clone. They have been telling us to sit down and shut up while they "save the day" ever since.

[WOSG]

What's delusional is treating a poll as authority for voting and support decision. Polls are notoriously unreliable and the only poll that counts is in the voting booth.

Support the BEST candidate, the one who would be the best Governor ... who would that be in your book?

[montag813]

Simon reportedly went ballistic last week when Republican leaders tried to talk to him about leaving the race.

Simon is an idiot. He ran a close second to Doug Forrester (NJ) as the greatest GOP embarrassment of 2002.

[NormsRevenge]

Thanks for your insight into a man you have probably never met much less know anything about. Yup, Friday night brings out the real cream of the crop cheap shot commentators.

Good Nite All.. See ya Later.

[Once-Ler]

A real lot of Republicans will be Democrats on their primary day, since there is no race for us. <^..^> Anyone sensible will be voting against Dean in the primary, helping the Democratic faithful get rid of this danger to the nation.

I actually plan to vote for Dean in the primary in WI, unless there is an important local Republican race. I figure Dubya has the Republican Prez nomination in the bag. My thinking is that Dean can't possibly win and this will make Dubya's victory margin wider and help sweep in more Republicans.

It never crossed my mind that some Paleo-Cons might vote in the 'rat primary to stop Dean. I suppose if you see little difference between the 'rats and the Republicans this stratagy makes some kind of twisted sense. Defeat the most liberal of the viable candidates and pray that Jesus comes back soon because all the candidates for Prez are evil.

Fascinating

[montag813]

Thanks for your insight into a man you have probably never met much less know anything about. Yup, Friday night brings out the real cream of the crop cheap shot commentators.

I am a political consultant actually. I have met Bill Simon on 4 occasions, and was unimpressed every time, although I wouldn't throw his wife out of bed. I also have met Doug Forrester, who was perhaps the single worst Senatorial candidate the GOP has ever fielded. Both men were rich by inheritance. Both men have heads as empty as Carlsbad Cavern.

I see you support McClintock...I did not say a bad word against him, having never met the man and being mildly impressed with his words thus far.

[FairOpinion]

Maybe you should familiarize yourself with Arnold's stands.

He voted for Prop 187, which Californians supported by overwhelming margin.

Arnold wants to bring business back to California.

Arnold believes in free enterprise and is anti-socialist.

Many articles and specific quotes were posted about the above.

[Carry_Okie]

Rove is a winner.

Oh is that why we have Democrats running Arizona, California, and New Jersey? Rove screwed up every one of those gubernatorial elections by sabotaging conservative candidates who had crushed his hand-picked RINOs in the primaries. Had he not done so, this recall would have been unnecessary because Simon would be governor. So when conservatives initiate a recall, he tried to kill it. When that failed he foists Ahnold.

Some winner. Maybe you'd best stay out of other peoples' politics.

[B Knotts]

Forget poll numbers ... WHO WOULD MAKE THE BEST GOVERNOR???

Yes. Indeed, you ask the correct question. In fact, I've started to fear that the whole recall thing may have been a terrible mistake. "Be careful what you wish for; you might get it."

The most likely scenario seems to be: Gray-Out is recalled. Ahnold is elected to replace him, with 25% of the vote.

On the advice of his senior financial and economic advisor, he almost immediately raises taxes. On the brink of recovery, California's economy begins to tank again, as more businesses bail.

In response, Ahnold, again, on the advice of his senior financial and economic advisor, proposes to "pump up" spending on economic development, causing him to have to find more minor taxes and fees to raise. This causes further erosion in the small business sector.

About this time, to "save the schools," Ahnold proposes a bold new massive "infrastructure investment" in California public schools. The only way to pay for it is by repealing Prop. 13.

Ahnold, this time on the advice of Karl Rove, then refuses to do anything about Prop. 187, so as to not upset the Hispanic voters.

Flash to November, 2004: Bush loses California anyway.

[montag813]

Had he not done so, this recall would have been unnecessary because Simon would be governor.

I was a political consultant for 6 gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns in 2002. Let me tell you, Simon is an idiot and his staff was as incompetant as they come. Karl Rove had nothing to do with that.

[July 4th]

If the Schwarzenegger numbers start to be confirmed by other polls, I think we will see some movement among the other Republican candidates. Bill Simon has nothing to lose - he has his money and no current political job to protect - so the GOP doesn't have a great deal of influence. McClintock, on the other hand, is currently in politics with future aspirations and is not wealthy on the level of Simon. If the GOP wants him out, there can be promises made to get him out of the race, and threats made if he doesn't want to go.

[The Old Hoosier]

He dodged the only question about economic issues that he's been asked, by Matt Lauer on the Today show. You can say he's anti-socialist, but he backed prop 49--that's the only issue of govt. spending that he's on the record about, and he's on the wrong side.

[B Knotts]

I'm just going on historic trends with the Field poll. It seems to have a significant liberal bias build in.

[Carry_Okie]

Rove had a lot to do with it. He put Parsky in charge of the GOP fundraising and disbursements pursuant to a reorg that he demanded. Rove also put the RNC money (raised when Bush came to California) in Parsky's hands. Parsky dictated Simon take on both Ed Rollins and Wilson/Jones - both losers (Rollins foisted the famous fundraising photo). Parsky refused to fund even a usual GOTV effort. He prevented the normal organizational expenditures for pre-election registration. He failed to show the fundraising performance that was the principal justification for hes taking the position. Parsky deliberately sabotaged the Simon campaign and it was because of a family vendetta against Bill Simon Sr.

I agree that Simon himself is ultimately accountable, however, had he received the SUPPORT that ANY Republican candidate should rightly expect out of the CAGOP, he would have won. For that Rove is accountable.

[Doctor Stochastic]

Maybe they could change the party abbreviation from GOP to POE.

[CyberAnt]

Well .. somehow I don't think you're a Californian - so what does it matter to you ..?? Ahhnold is NOT a conservative, so why should conservatives want to vote for him.

Also .. these numbers are a joke. Ahhnold is at 55%, while Cruz is at 22%. I don't know where the NYT got the numbers from - but it wasn't from Californians.

[B Knotts]

Rollins foisted the famous fundraising photo

Really?

I didn't know that.

Figures.

[Once-Ler]

That didn't piss me off at all. I think you make some good points. I like Schwartzenegger. I remember him stumping for Bush Sr. I have most of his films on DVD. I do not think he will be good for California.

On the other hand. The Republican Party of CA is so anemic that I'm not sure Arnold can hurt it anymore than Bill Simon already has.

And then on my third hand...I remember someone telling me..."Clinton can't be any worse than Bush is." Sadly I believe both Swartzenegger and Bustamove could be worse than Clinton or Davis. The people of CA are so screwed. I wish Issa had held onto his money and I hope the recall dummies enjoy Governor Cruz or Arnold. If CA ever gets a conservative Governor count on his recall 3 months after he is sworn in.

[rolling_stone]

what about the other 31%?