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We Predicted Blackout: Energy Expert
CBC ^ | August 14, 2003

Posted on 08/14/2003 4:42:39 PM PDT by Shermy

BOULDER, COLORADO - Energy experts have been warning about large-scale blackouts in North America since the early eighties.

Bill Browning of the Rocky Mountain Institute in Colorado says a report for the U.S. Pentagon in 1982 cautioned the American government about the fragility of the power grid system in North America.

The institute is an energy think tank. Browning runs the green development section.

"Everyone is pulling power and there's lots of big stations on the grid. All you need is one tenuous problem and it cascades throughout," Browning told CBC News Online.

Other experts agree.

"It's pretty close to peak demand," Gerry Angiovine of Navigant Consulting in Calgary, told CBC News Online.

"If suddenly you get one or two of the big suppliers going down…you may have a situation where you've got more being drawn than the system can supply…" he said.

Browning says a few years ago the same thing happened on the West Coast. Six states lost power all because a squirrel got burned on one of the transformers at a crucial time.

"Can you imagine? The entire power system breaks down because of a small rodent?" He says the solution would be to have something called "distributed generation" — a grid system supported by smaller producers, almost on a building by building scale. Browning says other energy sources such as fuel cells and micro-turbines should be used to shoulder the burden of energy distribution.

"At one time, the grid system seemed logical. If you have to do maintenance on one plant, then the grid connects everyone so the power keeps up. But that is also a fragility in the system."

Browning says energy experts such as himself are not surprised by the current blackout. He says it is bound to happen from time to time.

"The system, as we have designed it, is brittle. The only way we can make it resilient is to a mixture so that if portion of it goes down we can have islands of power still operating."

Browning says it often takes a major event to make authorities realize something needs to be done.

Written by CBC News Online staff


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Canada; Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: blackout; calgov2002; calpowercrisis; energy; energylist; powergrids; poweroutage; prediction

1 posted on 08/14/2003 4:42:39 PM PDT by Shermy
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To: Shermy
Atlas Shrugged.
2 posted on 08/14/2003 4:46:56 PM PDT by seenenuf (Progressives are a threat to my children!)
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To: seenenuf; *calpowercrisis; *calgov2002; fooman; PeoplesRep_of_LA; Canticle_of_Deborah; ...
Coming soon to the west Coast!

There should be a debate with Gray Davis asking what he is doing to prevent this kind of thing happenning in California!

That would just be real interesting!

Calpowercrisis:

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3 posted on 08/14/2003 4:54:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (All we need from a Governor is a VETO PEN!!!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Thanks to the rats and Watermelon Jihadists, we have no major new power plants for close to two decades.

When Moonbeam was sworn in, he with a very spooky person on stage with him declared the "Era of Limits!"

That Era of Limits meant that there would be no new power plants built except for those in the process California.

So as California added population, our old power plants became obsolete and inadequate to meet the demands. We started having roving/roming blackouts in 1999 and 2000 before GW was elected.

There have been no new power plants built by Herr Davis the Power Fascist. The only thing that is keeping our lights on is the dumping of water from our lakes at record levels to power the generators below the dams. Of course the mediots don't want to look at this situation.

Also, the Davis recession and driving businesses out of California has helped to keep our lights on. A closed business uses little if any electricity. Also, when people leave the state to go with their moving companies, they don't use any power in California.

4 posted on 08/14/2003 5:07:01 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Gray Davis = Bill Clinton without the conscience + Al Gore without the charm = Total Recall Time!)
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To: *Energy_List
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list
5 posted on 08/14/2003 5:10:29 PM PDT by Libertarianize the GOP (Ideas have consequences)
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To: Grampa Dave
"..............Thanks to the rats and Watermelon Jihadists.................."

Amen, brother!

What a golden opportunity for Bush to slam the Demon-cratic leftist-greenie-ELF-envirowacko-obstructionists who think we are going to "conserve our way out of an energy crisis".

6 posted on 08/14/2003 5:13:09 PM PDT by DoctorMichael (TAG! You're it!)
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To: Grampa Dave
This could happen tomorrow in California or anywhere on the western grid. It becomes increasingly likely every day.

We want power and we want it cheap. And we don't want a power plant built within 50 miles of where any of us live, and in the case of California, not even in Mexico.

7 posted on 08/14/2003 5:17:04 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Shermy
Energy experts have been warning about large-scale blackouts in North America since the early eighties.

I've been predicting snowstorms and hurricanes since the early eighties, too. And since I am right a few times a year instead of once or twice every three decades, my track record is clearly better than anything these "experts" have to offer.

/sarcasm off/

P.S. The irony here is that the nuclear plants and natural gas plants were the ones that shut down. The hydroelectric plants were the only ones that had no disruption.

8 posted on 08/14/2003 5:28:00 PM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: Shermy
Browning says a few years ago the same thing happened on the West Coast. Six states lost power all because a squirrel got burned on one of the transformers at a crucial time.

And ever vigilant FReepers have dutifully tracked these events:

Squirrel Plunges Downtown Saginaw Into Darkness
Squirrel fell on power line, authorities say
Squirrel (islamic militant?) knocks out power in OKC buildings
Squirrel Cuts Power Supply To 5,000

This conclusive evidence PROVES that there is a vast squirrelly conspiracy against our nation's electrical infrastructure.
Congress needs to act and place a bounty on ALL squirrels!

9 posted on 08/14/2003 5:45:26 PM PDT by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: Willie Green
This conclusive evidence PROVES that there is a vast squirrelly conspiracy against our nation's electrical infrastructure.

As every Seinfeld fan knows, while we have a deal with the pigeons, we have no deal with the squirrels.

10 posted on 08/14/2003 5:52:21 PM PDT by Lawgvr1955 (What is the right amount of clothing to take on a three hour tour???)
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To: Shermy
Yeah, so what?
11 posted on 08/14/2003 5:55:53 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Grampa Dave
California needs new power plants because their normal demand is operating too close to their peak production capability. But even if large new plants were already online it would provide very little protection against the type of event that blacked out the Northeast today.

The power grid is protected by a Protective Relay System that is designed using a Short Circuit Analysis of the grid and all of its components. The Power Grid has become so large and complex that the Short Circuit Analysis modeling software cannot accurately model all of the possible scenarios that can bring the grid down. Thus the system has potential failure scenarios built into the Protective Relay System.

All it takes is the failure of one protective relay to shut down large sections of the grid. The only real solution is to distribute the generation capabilities over a very large number of small units. Almost a house by house, building by building solution. That will require a major modification to our existing infrastructure. Expect to see it completed within the next 20 years but until that time we will be vulnerable to the type of event that the N.E. experienced today.
12 posted on 08/14/2003 6:15:31 PM PDT by FreeLibertarian (You live and learn. Or you don't live long.)
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To: FreeLibertarian
http://www.homepower.com/
13 posted on 08/14/2003 6:37:29 PM PDT by Abogado
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To: Abogado
Thank you!
14 posted on 08/14/2003 6:42:52 PM PDT by FreeLibertarian (You live and learn. Or you don't live long.)
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To: Willie Green
Just a squirrel folks (or maybe lightening). Nothing to see here - move along.
15 posted on 08/14/2003 10:53:38 PM PDT by geopyg (Democracy, whiskey, sexy)
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To: Dog Gone
NIMBY - Not In My Back Yard - is having a huge impact on the power crisis. along with environmentalists, regulatory agencies, the rate payer(who won't approve any increase in cost) and utilities(many which have moved to a "fix when fail" approach to maintaining their assets.

That sums up this problem. What this problem does show should be a MAJOR concern to everyone.

First, it highlights the vulnerability of the grid for those who wish to do evil.

Second, it shows the impact of complete non-action over the last 20 years. Hell, France is loaded with Nuke plants yet this country hasn't built a new one in years.

Third, it shows our HUGE reliability on abundant, available, clean power.

Fourth, as long as we continue to keep our collective head in the sand, this problem will get worse.

So...what do we need?

IMO we need:
Yucca Mountain to open up for Nuke waste.
Nuke plants being built and licensed across the country.
Rate increases to cover re-investment in generation and transmission assets.
IPP's - Independent Power Producers need to be supported financially. Enron killed this promising market.
Deregulation needs to move forward more rapidly.

There are others...I'd like to hear them.

16 posted on 08/15/2003 12:51:03 PM PDT by Solson (Our work is the presentation of our capabilities. - Von Goethe)
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To: Solson
Rate increases to cover re-investment in generation and transmission assets.

Wrong answer, but you got it right later. It's deregulation.

Prices need to fluctuate in order to balance supply and demand.

17 posted on 08/15/2003 1:11:10 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
Rates increases are a temp fix until dereg happens across the board. Then again...a decent National Energy bill would be a good start. :)
18 posted on 08/15/2003 2:07:26 PM PDT by Solson (Our work is the presentation of our capabilities. - Von Goethe)
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To: Solson
We actually did it here in Texas without that bill being enacted. Last year I found an electricity company that would provide power to my house for about 25% less than the former regulated utility. I locked in a one-year contract.

I couldn't get the same price today, but competition benefits everyone except the lazy.

19 posted on 08/15/2003 2:12:01 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
Texas has a great dereg program although I don't think dereg should ever be enacted in the residential market until the concept matures a bit.

As long as there are enough suppliers, dereg works quite well. In Montana, I can't find enough suppliers for my customers to make it a go. In the Northeast, there are plenty.

20 posted on 08/15/2003 3:07:30 PM PDT by Solson (Our work is the presentation of our capabilities. - Von Goethe)
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