Posted on 08/14/2003 1:49:19 PM PDT by John H K
Tropical Storm Erika Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 14, 2003
...Erika...the fifth tropical storm of the season forms in the Gulf of Mexico...
Tropical Storm Erika could threaten southern Texas or northeastern Mexico within the next 36 to 48 hours. Watches or warnings will likely be issued tonight or early Friday. Consult statements issued by local government and National Weather Service offices for recommended actions in your area.
Reports from a reconnaissance plane and satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico has become Tropical Storm Erika...the fifth tropical storm of the season.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 84.4 west or about 350 miles ...565 km southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km to the north of the center. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely to affect oil rigs near and to the north of Erika.
Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...26.2 N... 84.4 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila
RACISM!
RACISM!
RACISM!
It's the one. We got lots of drizzly rain and sideways mist around Tampa. My installer was working on the beach in Clearwater and he got hammered.
You folks south of the Skyway have gotten the worst of it by far. Didn't some parts of Bradenton get over 6" of rain one day last week?
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THIS EVENING FOUND A MUCH BETTER DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 47 KT IN THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AT 1500 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABUT 38 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE THE LAST RECON WIND REPORTS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/20. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PROPAGATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THAT MOTION IS BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG DURING THE NIGHT AS THE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE WESTWARD. AT 500 MB...ALL OF THE
GLOBALS MODELS MAINTAIN THE SAME DISTANCE BETWEEN ERIKA AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM. THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE MURKY AFTER 24 HOURS AS ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL WEAKEN ERIKA SIGNIFICANTLY...AND TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD JUST BEFORE IT REACHES THE WESTERN GULF COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING INSTEAD OF WEAKENING TO OCCUR...ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THAT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE FARTHER NORTH INITIAL POSITION AND FASTER MOTION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS TRACK SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS...AND THE GLOBAL MODEL'S MID-LEVEL CENTER TRACK POSITIONS. SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO BOCA SANTA MARIA MEXICO.
ERIKA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST RECON REPORTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING QUITE FAST AND THAT WILL LIMIT THE TIME THAT ERIKA WILL HAVE TO STRENGTHEN. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR SUCH A FAST MOVING TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE FAST MOTION IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AT A TIME. THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN. AFTER THAT TIME...SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO NEAR 70-75 KT AT LANDFALL. THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS ERIKA TO BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER STEWART
Your right about that, it's a permanent book in my bookshelves.
We got about a foot of rain over Sat-Sun. Very similar to the storms last June--except that the Manatee Dam was in good working order this time.
Again the only thing predictable about a hurricane is its unpredictability.
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I endorse it too. It's a great read and would make for a heck of a movie if done well.
Is that the stuff you get on your head when you play with dirty dogs??
LOL!
Good to see ya, sweet.
000 WTNT33 KNHC 151733 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003 ...ERIKA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...RACING TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...495 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERIKA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ERIKA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 92.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA
It was a strong mid-level low that finally reached the surface after it passed over Floriduh.
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