For Democrats, especially '04 wannabes, a once promising recession appears increasingly mired in quagmire. Deepening quagmire. By almost every key measure, from rising personal income to falling weekly initial jobless claims, the recession is struggling badly.
Democrat campaign strategists had hoped the recession would be a 1-termer (at least) -- lasting all 4 years of Bush's tenure, then resigning from public service in January, 2005, as a new Democrat president gets sworn in. This is the rosey scenario, or cakewalk theory. The hope was that the recession would unseat Bush as it did his father back in '92. Hardline Democrats -- the Howard Dean wing of the party -- see this recession as recession-lite, and there is no way it can beat Bush by trying to be recession-lite, they argue. Dean proposes disarming the economy -- repeal of the Bush tax cuts across-the-board, turning recession-lite into real recession. Less hardline factions, led by Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, argue that, to increase the recession's appeal among more moderate swing voters and peel them away from Bush, recession-lite is the only way to go. He notes the recession that undid Bush's father was, for all intents and purposes, recession-lite, too.
Although the recession had remained remarkably popular with Democrats since taking office in January, 2001, there are growing signs of trouble. Among Democrats, the recession had once commanded towering 100% approval ratings in its handling of the economy, but no more. Recent polls show rising doubts on the recession's credibility as an almost daily barrage of bullish news on the economy, from Wall Street to Main Street, takes its toll. Everyday, it seems, the recession gets pummeled by gloomy news of an accelerating economy. Some Democrats wonder if the recession had exaggerated evidence of its existence, or of the imminent threat it posed on the Bush administration. The slide in confidence in the recession and rising disapproval of its performance among Democrats likely will only grow worse, if recent economic signs are any harbinger.
Among the slew of worrisome signals fueling growing doubts over the recession's credibility: The latest government report on second quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) shows a better-than-expected 2.4% annual growth rate, despite the war in Iraq and terror jitters, with analysts expecting 4%-5% growth for the second half; not only is consumer spending sizzling, business investment -- whose anemic performance had been a big drag on the economy since the dot-com collapse -- is gaining momentum as well; the surge in business spending is, like the stock market rally, a leading indicator -- it presages future hiring, pushing the key unemployment rate down; the housing boom is still booming, despite the recent jump in interest rates (prompted by an accelerating economy); the service sector soared in July, the Institute for Supply Management's key index rocketing to 65.1 percent, up from an already bullish 60.6 in June. The sizzling July figure was the sizzle-ing-est since the survey began exactly 6 years ago, and presages 6% GDP growth for the 3rd quarter; factory orders in June jumped 1.7% -- better than expected, propelled by soaring durable goods orders, the index's 3rd increase these past 4 months; productivity jumped a 5.7 percent annualized rate for the 2nd quarter, while initial jobless claims dropped below the benchmark 400k/week for the first time in 6 months for the week ending August 2.
Amid the recession's increasingly sluggish performance, the growing frustration has driven Democrats to ask, 'who lost the recession?' Or was the recession distracted by coverage of Kobe Bryant, Scott Peterson and the California recall election? Did the recession mislead us into thinking this would all be a cakewalk? Did the recession willfully exaggerate its capabilities? If the tax cuts undermined the recession's momentum, why not repeal 'em all?!
These are just some of the questions Democrats are increasingly asking themselves these days.
Anyway, that's...
My two cents...
"JohnHuang2"PS -- won't be here tonight, but see y'all Wednesday. Have a great day :-)
LOL!...A Democrat crisis -- An American brimming with optimism.
The 'Bush recession'.......poor dims! They counted on its success, and it failed them!
Thanks!