[Chancellor Palpatine]

(!)

[Chancellor Palpatine]

Clean link. Sorry.

[TheDon]

It allows the Demorats to maintain the Governorship while the good ship California goes down with all hands?

(not my desired outcome, go Arnie!)

[Chancellor Palpatine]

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[Chancellor Palpatine]

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[Chancellor Palpatine]

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[Dog Gone]

The California conservatives are being extremely clever. Bear with me here.

The next Governor will be elected with a minority of voter support, will face an impossible task, and will go down in flames in three years, assuming he's not recalled first.

So, you want to get people out to recall the failed Governor Davis, but the only person you really want to win is your worst enemy.

That's Bustamonte. Republicans split their votes and Bustamonte wins a squeaker over Ah-nold.

[My2Cents]

I was ambivalent about the recall effort from the start (even though I signed a recall petition -- I did so half-heartedly, because Gray Davis is the most corrupt politician in America). My ambivalence stemmed, in part, from the fact that it was like rolling a bomb into a crowded room...you couldn't predict or control where it would go off and who it would take out.

Let's face it: the recall effort was started by a group of conservative Republicans (not all conservative Republican were behind the recall from the start, but those at the start were conservative Republicans). They should have known from the start that while they might have a good chance at taking out Gray Davis, once the recall qualified for the ballot, they couldn't control the end result. I consider it ironic that those who most strongly pushed the whole recall effort are now those who are "disgusted" with the prospect of Arnold Schwartzenegger becoming Governor out of the process. You wanted Davis out? You're going to get Davis out (in and of itself a good thing), but to those who started this process, you can't complain if the end result isn't what you envisioned.

And what has Cruz Bustamante ever done, other than being a political parasite living off the system? I think he lists his occupation as "Government." He was in the Legislature, in fact he was Speaker of the Assembly, and as far as I can tell, sat idly by as California sank further into the abyss. Arnold's entry sealed Gray Davis' fate. And his presence in the campaign may be the only insurance that that little opportunist Bustamante doesn't get in.

[Torie]

First, Garamandi is supposed to enter as well, so the Dem vote will be split as well. Second, some Dems like my brother will not vote for Bustamonte under any circumstances, and third Arnold will get a fair number of Dem votes. Beyond that, if at the end the polls show it is a two person race (say Bustamonte and Arnold), then there will be huge pressure for McClintock and Simon to drop out, and they probably will.

My Dem brother is also seriously considering voting for McClintock by the way. Granted, I had something to do with that. What this state needs right now is someone who really understands the budget, and is willing to make some very tough calls, and take the heat. McClintock is that man. No one else comes close. I say that not as an ideological matter, but rather as one of simple fact.

In any event, I am not worried about a splintering of the GOP ranks letting in Bustamonte at this time. I think the odds that Bustamonte wins due to that happening is low. He might win anyway (although I doubt that too), but if he does, it will probably not be due to this factor.

[TontoKowalski]

I've been thinking along the same lines. Garamendi (I think that's the proper spelling) is unknown to me, but I understand he's quite popular among Cali dems. That's going to split their vote to some extent.

The filing deadline is tomorrow. I'd bet money that some dim (I'm thinking Loretta Sanchez) is thinking, "Hmm. I'm a woman, and a Hispanic, and throw in variables and unknowns for the other candidates, plus the fact I'm not in State govt and can't be blamed for the mess, and I might walk away with this thing if I can get, say, 23% of the vote..."

If Dim party "unity" didn't hold together for Davis, I can't imagine they're all going to fall in line for Bustamonte. I look for one more semi-prominant dim to enter the race at the last minute.

[CdMGuy]

Well, it tells me that Bill Simon is a bigger incompetent then I gave him credit for when I voted for him last November. He is either an egomaniac or an idiot, as he cannot possibly win the governorship. He can only mess it up for the Republicans by siphonning off votes. This guy is as big an a-hole as they come. Then along comes Peter Uberoth (sp?) Thanks guys, not!!!!!

[eureka!]

25% of the registered Rats are in favor of the recall, or so say the pollsters....

[Lancey Howard]

Yesterday a freeper brought up an interesting point. Remember what the scumbags did in New Jersey last year? They knew the Torch was toast and so they put a gun to his head and made him drop out of the race at the last minute (with the blessing of the mob-controlled, utterly corrupt state Supreme Court there). They then foisted up a corpse named Lautenberg (with all the name recognition) and won the election, keeping the New Jersey Senate seat safely in scumbag hands.

Now, what is to prevent the scumbags from doing exactly the same thing in Kalifornia? Why wouldn't the scumbags put a gun to Davis' head and make him resign the day before the recall election, thereby negating the need for a recall election at all, and making Bustamonte the governor by succession? End of Arnold, end of story, the scumbags keep control of the Kalifornia governor's office. Is there some part of the recall law that would prevent such a manuever?

Thank you to anybody who can intelligently address this (strong) possibility.

[amused]

It's all about principles. And getting to say one is right by not actually having anything they believe in implemented. I have to confess I like McClintock but I like winning more.

The priority is for myself is one, Davis getting his ass kicked out; two, is to take the governorship; three, is to have that replacement be a conservative.

#3 looks like a possible obstacle to not just #2 but #1 as well.

[L,TOWM]

How dare you introduce logic, analytical thinking and realpolitik into this battle for the heart and soul of California?

Watch. The demonrats are going to keep some party discipline and let Bustamante carry the torch, while the good guys get into an ideological food fight...(again).
Mullholland, Morris, Carville, and every other 'rat operator, when they are behind closed doors, must shake their heads in amazement at how we keep managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and always manage to pull the trigger when the gun is centered at our own nuts.

[Uncle Hal]

It may not be politically correct but I question whether the average resident of CA. is ready to have a hispanic governor. I have a lot of democratic friends and they are as fed up with the illegal alien problem as I am. If we get Bustamonte in their we might as well become part of Mexico. I cannot believe the Dems are not aware the situation.

[MHT]

Republicans are figuring that the ultra-celebrity status of Arnold will bring out first-time voters, offering a new wealth of possible registered Republican voters. The psychological effect of a positive Republican who gets lots of face time could be a lift unto itself. Any improvement in the general economy will have an impact on California's economy. Alone, he will not be able to make any real changes in two years, especially with a Democratic legislation.

But, as the Clinton's and Kennedy's have proved for decades, appearance beats substance in politics and Arnold's stage presence and style may overshadow anything he actually does anyway.

[Eva]

Do an on-line poll, right here on Free Republic of all California posters. The results should clear up any doubts of what you are saying. I think you're right. Arnold may not be a conservative, but he's the best choice that Republicans have in California. Sometimes you have to take what is offered.

[Chesterbelloc]

There are going to be over 500 names on this ballot. I assume that they will be in random order? Think of the logistics of voting.

I'm guessing a certain subset of people when actually confronted with this list in the voting booth will not want to search through it. I bet some only choose from the names on the first page. I bet one bright group votes for a different person on each page. I wonder if this subset will be more liberal or more conservative or pretty balanced between the two. The swing of just a few percentage points could make the difference. This will be very interesting...

[ER_in_OC,CA]

There are at least three Democrats who say they will run so far.
Audie Bock (already entered)
Cruz Bustamante
John Garamendi

So far, it looks like there are three Republicans:
Tom McClintock (I believe he's already entered)
Bill Simon
Arnold Schwarzenegger

Also, don't forget our favorite guaranteed-to-pull 4%+ from the liberal dem wing guy -- Peter Camejo!

It may be true that Simon and McClintock will fare better than Bock and Garamendi, but we'll see how things fare. It is very likely that the poll-leader will have momentum and draw voters from the others.

Although there are more registered Dems than Reps in CA, you should take into account voter turnout. Traditionally, those satisfied with the status quo (i.e. Dems in this case) are less likely to vote than a motivated "upset voter" (see the 1994 US congressional elections).

Add the Ward Connerly racial privacy initiative and you will very likely have a strong turnout of those who want to dump Davis and those who will vote for a Republican.

Furthermore, there are some big flakes in the Independent or Non-Affiliated crowd will end up voting for fashionable candidates like Flynt, Coleman, Camejo, and yes -- Schwarzenegger. Of course, most flakes won't show up to vote this time.

Let me add that I'm unsure that the powerful Dem machine will be ready for an effective GOTV effort this time. Will the buses and voting "escorts" do their usual job in getting union members and "special interest group" members out to vote? I think this will be a weak spot for the Dems.

Lastly, given what we learned about many Dem voters in Florida -- what makes you think that the bussed-to-the-polls voters will be able to find Bustamante on the ballot when there's 50+ names to sort through? I have my doubts.

Keep in mind that the ballot ordering is NOT straight alphabetical, so there is no guarantee that Bustamante will be near the top of the ballot.

These are all thoughts worth considering if you're seriously interested in this and this isn't just a typical vanity post with your usual lambasting of Conservative Republicans in California.

[DM1]

actually i think that the greens by and large will vote for Camejo (Green Party candidate) since this is probably their best shot at obtaining a higher office since if there are enough candidates you can win with 15% of the vote. I tend to agree with you though that there should be less Repubs running, unify over someone like Arnie who can appoint some of the more conservative candidates to whatever posts he could find.
just my observations :)