[Torie]

First, Garamandi is supposed to enter as well, so the Dem vote will be split as well. Second, some Dems like my brother will not vote for Bustamonte under any circumstances, and third Arnold will get a fair number of Dem votes. Beyond that, if at the end the polls show it is a two person race (say Bustamonte and Arnold), then there will be huge pressure for McClintock and Simon to drop out, and they probably will.

My Dem brother is also seriously considering voting for McClintock by the way. Granted, I had something to do with that. What this state needs right now is someone who really understands the budget, and is willing to make some very tough calls, and take the heat. McClintock is that man. No one else comes close. I say that not as an ideological matter, but rather as one of simple fact.

In any event, I am not worried about a splintering of the GOP ranks letting in Bustamonte at this time. I think the odds that Bustamonte wins due to that happening is low. He might win anyway (although I doubt that too), but if he does, it will probably not be due to this factor.

[Sabertooth]

Re: Bustamante. Given that he is beholden to La Raza and has that n-word problem, I don't see him polling well among blacks. Is Garamendi in yet? If Cruz is the only Dem, I don't see a good likelihood of a high Democrat turnout, either.

Arnold's strongest electable attribute is not his status as a moderate, but that he doesn't come across as yet another state-wide, Republican wimp. That's not going to be enough to sway my vote, though.

I think Arnold should bow out so as not to siphon ballots from McClintock. OK, seriously, I'm not excited about a center-left Kennedy beachhead in my state and in my party. Not to mention that he's a ticking, personal scandal time bomb.