I believe he's already started.
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Posted on 07/19/2003 4:50:45 PM PDT by Pubbie
A new Republican poll shows incumbent Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D., would win an election against potential Republican challenger, former Congressman John Thune.
The poll, conducted July 9 and 10 by Washington-based GOP pollster Robert Moran, shows Daschle would get 46 percent of the vote and Thune would get 40 percent of the vote, if the election were held now. Moran's poll shows 10 percent are undecided, with 1 percent leaning toward Thune and 2 percent leaning towards Daschle. The poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
Despite Daschle's lead, both sides claim the poll of registered voters is a sign their candidate would be victorious in 2004 and encouraged news coverage of the numbers. Moran conducted the poll on his own and wasn't hired or paid by anyone, he said.
Popular three-term House member Thune lost a 2002 challenge to Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., by 524 votes. He is considered the leading contender against Daschle and has said he is considering the race but doesn't have a timeline to decide if he will run.
GOP operatives and a Thune staffer seized on the figures showing Daschle's support has dipped below 50 percent, something they say has spelled trouble for incumbents.
"Anytime you have an incumbent stuck in the mid-40s, which is where Daschle's been in two successive polls ... I think he knows he's in trouble. That's why he's running ads now," National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Dan Allen said. "They're in a state with Republican enrollment and the president at the top of the ticket. Daschle has reasons to be very concerned. The numbers show this is a very competitive race."
Allen refers to pro-ethanol television ads that Daschle's campaign is running on Sioux Falls television stations.
Pollster Moran said former senators Alfonse D'Amato of New York, Jean Carnahan of Missouri and William Roth of Delaware each fell below the 50 percent mark and lost the race.
Thune spokesman Ryan Nelson called the poll numbers "encouraging."
"You've got an unannounced individual, a private citizen, who's within a little above the margin of error on a sitting minority leader."
Daschle's campaign manager Steve Hildebrand said his boss has gained ground and Thune has lost ground since a poll taken about four months ago by another GOP pollster showed Thune edging Daschle out, 46-44.
"Why would they put out a poll that shows Daschle has gained 8 (points) since the last poll?" Hildebrand said. "That eight-point swing in Tom Daschle's favor, to me, is the single most significant aspect to their poll."
Hildebrand said Daschle's lead is even more impressive considering that Republicans claim 10 percent more of South Dakota's registered voters than do Democrats.
Moran, on the other hand, believes that the most significant aspect of the poll is the combination of Daschle's sub-50-percent number and the fact that President Bush won South Dakota by 60 percent in 2000.
If Bush maintains that margin in 2004, Moran believes the president's lead would leave Daschle trying to scrape together enough crossover votes to eke out a victory. His experience in races during the Clinton years shows him that the bigger the president's margin of victory in a district, the more elusive victory becomes for candidates from the opposing party. When Clinton took a district by 54 percent or more, victory for a Republican congressional candidate was rare, he said.
"The higher Bush's vote total gets, the harder and harder it is. The question becomes what percent of the Bush vote does Daschle need to win?" Moran said. "How do you convince people to vote for both Superman and Lex Luthor?"
Hildebrand refused to discuss how a 60 percent or better victory for Bush would affect Daschle's showing and called a repeat performance by the president "a huge assumption, given the current climate." But, he notes that the poll shows Bush behind Daschle at 43 percent in South Dakota, with 29 percent choosing an unnamed Democrat challenger, 21 percent undecided and 3 percent each leaning toward Bush or a Democrat.
Also, Daschle has won his last two elections with 62 percent and 65 percent of the vote.
"I'm not going to suggest that George Bush is in trouble here, but Tom Daschle's numbers are better than George W. Bush's. Bush has farther to climb to get to 60 percent than Daschle does," Hildebrand said. "We are not threatened by sharing the ballot with George Bush. For a number of elections, Tom Daschle's been on the ballot at the same time a (Republican) president has been on ballot, and Tom Daschle has never lost an election."
Um, if Tommy Boy leads 46%-40%, and there is a 4.9% margin of error, then how can they surmise the pool shows Daschle would win? The difference is statistically insignificant, and the fact that a year and a half from the election, an incumbent Senate Minority Leader only leads in a poll by 6% is not favorable to Daschle.
Check around...I think you'll find that an incumbent needs much better numbers than that or he's in for a tough run.
This time, can we get the GOP anti-fraud squad geared up? Thune won that last election; he needs to make sure the next one isn't stolen also.
Take no prisoners!
FREgards......
I believe he's already started.
.
In South Dakota it's going to be tough. They do not require any form of ID to vote.
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