Hong Kong’s Democracy At A Cross Road

Self | July 15, 2003 | FreepForever

[FreepForever]

The July 13, Sunday rally for democracy development held in Chater Road, Central, Hong Kong, punctuates, if not decelerates, the People’s Power movement that unsettles the bureaucracy of the Hong Kong government to its core.

While it is time for both the pro-democracy camp activists and the citizen to take a breather and consolidate strength for future movement, they are split and divided. With the center of the storm, the controversial Article 23 which triggers unprecedented uproar, now shelved, the general public’s focus moves to: To keep or oust Tung?

The difference of opinion stems from whether the movement should continue with it’s prime target of removing Tung CheeHwa, the flagellated and most disliked Chief Executive of Hong Kong. After the historic July 1 half-million protest march, Mr. Tung’s approval rate dropped to a new low: 34% (source: HKU public opinion poll). Only two of his 3 secretaries and 11 ministers barely registered above 50%. This is the worst confidence crisis that the administration has ever faced since 1997.

The “Save Tung (for better use)” faction argues that removing Tung at this stage would be detrimental to the democratic reform process. If Tung resigns today, his post will be temporarily succeeded by the Chief Secretary, Donald Tsang as Acting Chief Executive for a maximum period of six months. And the 800-members election Committee will be reassembled for a reelection because the mechanism for popular election of chief executive is not yet in place. Whoever the new Chief Executive is, his first 5-year term will finish in 2009. That means the first popularly elected Chief Executive would only be materialized in Hong Kong in 2009 the earliest, even with Beijing’s green light all the way. Therefore, removing Tung now is actually a delay to the goal of popularly elected chief executive. If Hong Kong keeps Tung in office, there may still be some hope that Hong Kong can get a popularly elected chief executive as early as 2007 when Tung finishes his second term.

The more bellicose “Oust Tung” faction argues that whoever think Hong Kong will get it’s first popular chief executive election in 2007 are either very naive or day dreaming. Asking Tung’s present administration to build a democratic election system is like an old Chinese saying: “asking a tiger for its fur”, all his ministers will fight tooth and nail to resist it. There is no reason to let Tung stay in office for an extra day. This is considered a cost too high for a democratic dream that will never come true. If Hong Kong wants a new beginning, it would be after Tung’s resignation, not before.

Up to now, both factions’ argument have valid points and both factions have its diehard supporters. It will take some time for the two factions to debate and reach a consensus. However, no matter what consensus is reached, the biggest deciding factor still lies in Beijing. Will the Central Government loosen its grip and allow Hong Kong to have such progressive democratic reform? Beijing’s authority fears that if Hong Kong citizen’s demand for more democracy is unopposed, mainland’s billion strong population will follow suit. For a non-democratic state like Communist China, any pursuit for more democracy traditionally means “counter-revolution” (see note) and must be dealt with by brutal force.

Note: Ironically, the administration of Communist China think that they have monopolized the word “revolution”. Therefore, any force in opposition to the present regime, is officially labeled as “counter-revolution”.

[ken5050]

I don't really think they hold up of a reunion with Taiwan, at least not until mainland China becomes a democracy..THEN we'll have a reunification....the little fish swallows the biug one, kind of thing....

[ken5050]

don't FEAR a crackdown, my friend, but be WARY of one...there's a difference...a big difference....Godspeed to you and all your compadres....

[tallhappy]

Back to your ChiCom propagandist mode I see.

[The Pheonix]

I am trying (for what's its worth) to advise my Hong Kong friends ( I don't want to see another tradegy)

You are also most welcome to give your opinions

I also wish that the Chicoms Govt would just disappear, or evolve into a Govt that the Whole World (including Taiwan) would be happy with

I also wish you and all my Taiwanese brothers the very best of luck. May the Good Lord grant you your wish for your Nation

[tallhappy]

Not even President Hu JinTao knows what to do with Tung. Saving Tung (Jiang Zemin's man) would cost him some political points. Dumping Tung would show Beijing's weakness. He's cornered.

No. This, sadly, is a trivial issue.

Hong Kong is not all that important anymore.

Demonstrations will slowly wane, especially as summer ends.

Tung will twist in the wind. Hong Kong marginalized.

[FreepForever]

Re: your #20. Thanks! It is just Chinese reading Chinese minds.

No I haven't read Sun Tze. But what we are doing is simply getting the most with the least cost. A win-win situation for both.

[FreepForever]

Sigh.........., so what is your suggestion?

[tallhappy]

My suggestion? Good question. Keep the focus and belief in liberty is first and foremost.

I have a lot of ideas, but they wouldn't happen, for various reasons.

One key is to understand your side is the overwhelming majority. Most important immediately is not letting 23 pass.

It would immediately make you all criminals for one.

My comment above was to let you know what I think Beijing's strategy will be. They certainly will not send in troops and shoot.

Focus on HK supposed autonomy. Get rid of Beijing puppets in the legislature. Get the open vote asap. Don't rely on Beijing.

[The Pheonix]

You have just given good, sound advice to the people of HK

[FreepForever]

Article 23 is already shelved indefinitely. We will keep pressuring the legislators to block the bill if Tung tries to revive it. Pro-Beijing legislators will be thrown out of the Council in next year's election. To achieve the rest? Some believe we have to remove Tung first, so don't.

Is that liberty? Not necessarily, Hong Kong is still under China rule. This we cannot change.

[TheKost]

<< We are not worry about a crackdown. All demonstration are non violent and peaceful >>

Passive resistance is most effective against a government that has to answer to its voters. Since mainland China doesn’t have to be accountable to any voters anything is possible. What you have going for you is a relatively free press that can broadcast footage of any crackdown to the west. I suspect the CHICOM’s are too afraid of losing all the money that has been coming in from the west (which they may lose if there is a big enough outcry from the west) to have a military crackdown. I suspect they will continue to try and take away your rights by trying to pass more laws like Article 23.

Keep up the good work.

[FreepForever]

Typo: Some believe we have to remove Tung first, some don't.

[tallhappy]

Article 23 is already shelved indefinitely

No it is not.

A month or six at most.

[FreepForever]

Don't worry, we have a lot of room to play with. Say, for example:
1) Calling all Bank of China credit card users to cut their cards and withdraw their accounts.
2) Boycott all Chinese shops (including Beijing backers')
3) Calling all citizen to withold their government payment checks (tax, housing rental, loan repayment, fine, etc.)
4) Go-slow driving of all public vehicles.
5) Transportation strikes, etc.

We can escalate one notch at a time if necessary.

[FreepForever]

Re your #33. Where did you get that? Then, legislators will block it.

[tallhappy]

Then, legislators will block it.

There aren't enough. Tien's group is not against it.

[FreepForever]

There aren't enough. Tien's group is not against it.

Where did you get that?

[The Pheonix]

Seeing how Hu and Wen have been trying to project a new image of the PRC to the world,

there is a SLIM., and I mean, slim chance that they may amend Article 23 and re-present it in a more acceptable form to the people of HK

More wishful thinking, on our part ?

[FreepForever]

No, that's not your wishful thinking. Actually Tung had striked out the 3 most controversial clauses in the bill, but the people are not satisfied and want the bill to be reintroduced in White Draft for further public consultation. Meanwhile, Beijing has publicly announced that they have no timetable for the bill and its content.

[The Pheonix]

RE my post #38

The clue to my logic is what Tung Chee Hua said (to the media), in immediate response to the Peaceful demo by 5000,000 HK people. He said ," this means that we have to start listening more carefully to what the people of HK are saying"

Hope I'm right, in my deduction.....