Hong Kong’s Democracy At A Cross Road

Self | July 15, 2003 | FreepForever

[FreepForever]

The July 13, Sunday rally for democracy development held in Chater Road, Central, Hong Kong, punctuates, if not decelerates, the People’s Power movement that unsettles the bureaucracy of the Hong Kong government to its core.

While it is time for both the pro-democracy camp activists and the citizen to take a breather and consolidate strength for future movement, they are split and divided. With the center of the storm, the controversial Article 23 which triggers unprecedented uproar, now shelved, the general public’s focus moves to: To keep or oust Tung?

The difference of opinion stems from whether the movement should continue with it’s prime target of removing Tung CheeHwa, the flagellated and most disliked Chief Executive of Hong Kong. After the historic July 1 half-million protest march, Mr. Tung’s approval rate dropped to a new low: 34% (source: HKU public opinion poll). Only two of his 3 secretaries and 11 ministers barely registered above 50%. This is the worst confidence crisis that the administration has ever faced since 1997.

The “Save Tung (for better use)” faction argues that removing Tung at this stage would be detrimental to the democratic reform process. If Tung resigns today, his post will be temporarily succeeded by the Chief Secretary, Donald Tsang as Acting Chief Executive for a maximum period of six months. And the 800-members election Committee will be reassembled for a reelection because the mechanism for popular election of chief executive is not yet in place. Whoever the new Chief Executive is, his first 5-year term will finish in 2009. That means the first popularly elected Chief Executive would only be materialized in Hong Kong in 2009 the earliest, even with Beijing’s green light all the way. Therefore, removing Tung now is actually a delay to the goal of popularly elected chief executive. If Hong Kong keeps Tung in office, there may still be some hope that Hong Kong can get a popularly elected chief executive as early as 2007 when Tung finishes his second term.

The more bellicose “Oust Tung” faction argues that whoever think Hong Kong will get it’s first popular chief executive election in 2007 are either very naive or day dreaming. Asking Tung’s present administration to build a democratic election system is like an old Chinese saying: “asking a tiger for its fur”, all his ministers will fight tooth and nail to resist it. There is no reason to let Tung stay in office for an extra day. This is considered a cost too high for a democratic dream that will never come true. If Hong Kong wants a new beginning, it would be after Tung’s resignation, not before.

Up to now, both factions’ argument have valid points and both factions have its diehard supporters. It will take some time for the two factions to debate and reach a consensus. However, no matter what consensus is reached, the biggest deciding factor still lies in Beijing. Will the Central Government loosen its grip and allow Hong Kong to have such progressive democratic reform? Beijing’s authority fears that if Hong Kong citizen’s demand for more democracy is unopposed, mainland’s billion strong population will follow suit. For a non-democratic state like Communist China, any pursuit for more democracy traditionally means “counter-revolution” (see note) and must be dealt with by brutal force.

Note: Ironically, the administration of Communist China think that they have monopolized the word “revolution”. Therefore, any force in opposition to the present regime, is officially labeled as “counter-revolution”.

[FreepForever]

Here is an update of the latest situation in Hong Kong's politics.

[FreepForever]

PING

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[HighRoadToChina]

Great information, my friend! Keep up the pressure. Hong Kong needs to engender "People Power" before it's too late. Hong Kong should have done this before 1997, but that's a different story and the past.

Ping for my Communistic China list!

FRemail me if you want off my list.

[ken5050]

Excellent essay..thanks for the update...BTW, how do you say "recall petition" in Mandarin?

[FreepForever]

Thanks! Sorry, I'm afraid there's no such phrase in Chinese because they usually answer petitions with guns. HaHa!

[The Pheonix]

Dear Pres Hu

We would be obliged and grateful if you could kindly consider the people of Hong Kong's appeal for your Govt to live up to your promise of a "ONE COUNTRY - TWO SYSTEMS" concept for the SAR of HK.

Some of your officials might have just overlook this tiny ,little detail >>>>>>SARCASM

[FreepForever]

Here's some more inside story for you:

Before Premier Wen left Hong Kong on July 1 before noon, he asked Tung what would be his estimation of the demonstration’s turnout. Tung answered 30,000, maximum 40,000. When Wen left Hong Kong, he didn’t fly directly back to Beijing. Instead, he made a short stopover in ShenZhen where he can watch Hong Kong’s television broadcast. When he watched with his own eyes the half-million turnout at the demonstration which was broadcasted live over the television, he exclaimed: “What the hell is going on here? How can a top government official misjudge the political situation and the people’s response like this?” Wen understands the difference between 30,000 and half-million. Obviously, Tung screwed up big time in front of his superior. Wen made a telephone to Beijing immediately. The head of the HK & Macau Affairs Office, Liu Hui, was among Wen’s entourage on Wen’s Hong Kong visit. Liu was sitting beside Wen watching the television when Wen made that remarks. Liu Hui was one of the Chinese officials whom Liberal Party's chief James Tien met on his Beijing trip on July 5. This explains Beijing’s reaction and Tien's resignation. The rest is history and all over the news.

Not even President Hu JinTao knows what to do with Tung. Saving Tung (Jiang Zemin's man) would cost him some political points. Dumping Tung would show Beijing's weakness. He's cornered.

[Enemy Of The State]

[Smile-n-Win]

Thanks for the ping.

Ironically, the administration of Communist China think that they have monopolized the word “revolution”. Therefore, any force in opposition to the present regime, is officially labeled as “counter-revolution”.

Deja vu. They did the same in Hungary in 1956.

[The Pheonix]

Hu and Wen are cornered, for sure....

One ancient Chinese proverb said, "leave your enemy one road to retreat, that's only human". Is this applicable here? Think long term and on the reasoning that HK needs all the friends she can get.......

[Smile-n-Win]

Not even President Hu JinTao knows what to do with Tung. Saving Tung (Jiang Zemin's man) would cost him some political points. Dumping Tung would show Beijing's weakness.

Sounds like lose-lose for him--a win-win for freedom!

[ken5050]

Can I induce you to climb out on a limb and take a stab at what might happen? The worst case scenario is some type of Tienamin Square reaction. It seems to me that if there are serious difficulties in parts of mainland China, the govt might feel the need to crack down.

What's probably holding them back, IMHO, is the fear that if they do something reqally harsh, you'll see a groundswell of world opinion to move the Olympics...OTOH, if they hold off and don't do anything, then the opposition swells...

[Smile-n-Win]

One ancient Chinese proverb said, "leave your enemy one road to retreat, that's only human".

A classical example of how people who mean to be good give evil a chance.

[The Pheonix]

Goodness begets goodness and evil begets evil

or as the bible says " Evil to him that thinks evils"

Don't worry, this is CHINA -2003, and the key-word is PRAGMATISM. The Hardcore-Communist leaders have all gone to meet Marx. So, Tienanmen is very unlikely. The new generation is all pragmatism.

The WW2 slogan said, "Chinese must not kill Chinese"

[The Pheonix]

Can't see how the brave people of Hong Kong (no matter ho courageous) can do a "hungarian uprising". 6 million against the might of the PLA

It's better to have a mature and intelligent dialoque with the new Pres and PM

[FreepForever]

Yes, we are ready to give Beijing a choice. Give us popular election in 2007 and we will let Tung stay (to save Beijing's face). You know who important face is to the ChiComs.

ken5050: We are not worry about a crackdown. All demonstration are non violent and peaceful. No anti-Beijing or anti-Communist slogans. What we want is our democracy and what we're after is Mr. Tung's butt. Beijing has no excuse to use force when we are only practicing our civil right.

[headsonpikes]

Thanks for the ping!

Stand fast, Hong Kong!

[FreepForever]

Also, a crackdown on Hong Kong means they have to kiss their last hope of a peaceful reunification with Taiwan good-bye. No China leader can afford to take this risk. He will have to take the blame of the nation forever.

[The Pheonix]

Re your post #17

Very good thinking , good thinking indeed

Have you been reading Sun Tzu ?

In China today, pragmatism can sometimes provide the solution,