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THAT URANIUM STORY
NRO ^ | 7/14/2003 | David Frum

Posted on 07/14/2003 8:59:22 PM PDT by Utah Girl

On the ground floor of the White House is the Map Room, so-called because it was here that Franklin Roosevelt used to get his briefings on the progress of World War II. Over the mantel is the last map FDR saw before his death. It shows American, British, and Soviet troops racing toward Berlin. It also shows a frightening concentration of German forces in the Nazis’ last redoubt, the mountains of Bavaria.

We now know of course that this last redoubt did not exist. American intelligence had been deceived. And it’s possible that policymakers also deceived themselves. Roosevelt, for reasons of his own, wanted to let the Russians have the honor – and suffer the losses – of an assault on Berlin. The belief in the last redoubt was a very useful belief: It justified FDR’s wish to avoid joining the battle for Berlin.

Intelligence is a very uncertain business. And there’s no doubt that consumers of intelligence tend to be quicker to accept uncertain information that confirms their prejudices than uncertain information that calls those prejudices into question. Since consumers of intelligence are usually prejudiced in favor of doing little, most of the time they prefer intelligence that errs on the side of minimizing dangers.

9/11 changed the way American officials looked at the world. So when they got reports that Iraq was seeking to buy uranium in Niger, you can understand why they took the information seriously. That information has since turned out to be false – and its falsity has generated a major political controversy, as bitter-end opponents of this president and the war on terror try to exploit the administration’s error.

The controversy turns on the fact that some in the CIA doubted the story from the start. Their warnings were apparently disregarded, that is assuming that they were adequately communicated in the first place. Why? One reason may be that the CIA’s warnings on Iraq matters had lost some of their credibility in the 1990s. The agency was regarded by many in the Bush administration as reflexively and implacably hostile to any activist policy in Iraq. Those skeptics had come to believe that the agency was slanting its information on Iraq in order to maneuver the administration into supporting the agency’s own soft-line policies.

So when the Bush administration got skeptical news on the Niger uranium matter, it would not be surprising if mid-level policymakers mentally filed it under the heading “more of the same from the CIA,” filed it, and discounted it. The tendency was redoubled by the origin of the Niger-debunking report: Joseph C. Wilson. For more about him, see Clifford May's important post in last week's NRO. The result was the strange formulation in the State of the Union speech, in which the Niger story was cited – but attributed to British intelligence.

The story is an embarrassment for all concerned. But it no more undercuts the case for the Iraq war than FDR’s mistake in 1945 retroactively discredited the case for World War II. The United States did not overthrow Saddam Hussein because he was buying uranium in Niger. It overthrow him because he was a threat to the United States, to his neighbors, to his own people, and to the peace of a crucial region of the globe. All of that is just as true as it was on the day the President delivered his speech containing the errant 16 words – and the war is just as right and justified today as it was then.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: britsstandbystory; cia; davidfrum; frostedyellowcake; intelligence; josephwilson; mycousinknowsclay; niger; opus; sotu; uranium; wmd
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1 posted on 07/14/2003 8:59:22 PM PDT by Utah Girl
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To: Utah Girl
An excellent overview of the facts and just how rediculous the critics are on this matter.

This whole deal is purely political

2 posted on 07/14/2003 9:03:43 PM PDT by MJY1288
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To: All

See that good looking dude on the left? He's got FAR BETTER THINGS to do than conduct Freepathons! Come on, let's get this thing over with.

3 posted on 07/14/2003 9:05:13 PM PDT by Support Free Republic (Your support keeps Free Republic going strong!)
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To: MJY1288

4 posted on 07/14/2003 9:07:31 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: MJY1288
I think the story is losing a little bit of traction, now that President Bush is back in the country. I think the next thing the media is going to jump on is the fact that the US soldiers are going to be in Iraq for some years to come. I don't remember President Bush or Donald Rumsfeld giving a timetable of pulling the soldiers out, and how about those soldiers STILL in Bosnia, etc? They were supposed to be there a year, max, and they're still there.
5 posted on 07/14/2003 9:07:40 PM PDT by Utah Girl
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To: Utah Girl
I don't remember President Bush or Donald Rumsfeld giving a timetable of pulling the soldiers out

I believe it would be covered under, "Whatever it takes".

6 posted on 07/14/2003 9:23:03 PM PDT by NJJ
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To: NJJ
Exactly.
7 posted on 07/14/2003 9:23:57 PM PDT by Utah Girl
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To: Utah Girl
The administration has made it very clear that we will be in Iraq for a lengthy period -- "as long as it takes" and, at least, "years".

Of course, they made this every bit as clear as "British intelligence tells us that Iraq sought uranium in Africa". Which, evidently, was and remains a true statement.

But the libs and the media can always be counted upon to misconstrue, confuse, twist and distort the issue, regardless of its initial clarity and accuracy.

They are really showing their true colors, are they not?

8 posted on 07/14/2003 10:21:00 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE.)
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To: okie01
I can't help but wonder... Was Bush's visit to Africa the humanitarian (& PR) tour it seemed, or were he and his team there to meet someone and collect something related to the yellowcake issue?
Dubya's a wily fellow, has proved this many times over, and the dims and mediots never seem to really catch on to this fact.
Gotta wonder: strategery?
9 posted on 07/14/2003 10:31:49 PM PDT by King Prout (people hear and do not listen, see and do not observe, speak without thought, post and not edit)
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To: King Prout
Mistakes were made. I can remember the last President that used that line to justify doing nothing. Bush is the executor in charge of the CIA, FBI, DIA, etc. and letting them put him in a hole such as he claims they did, and not doing anything but actually supporting them is____*.

*insane.

10 posted on 07/14/2003 11:19:21 PM PDT by meenie
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To: meenie
That's certainly the way it looks, and if it IS the reality then I agree with you, but I wonder...
Bush has snookered the dims and the mediots time after time.
So, I wonder...
(runawayyyy, a-run-run-run-run-runawayyyy!)
Sorry, getting punchy as the shift wears on.
11 posted on 07/14/2003 11:22:50 PM PDT by King Prout (people hear and do not listen, see and do not observe, speak without thought, post and not edit)
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To: meenie
Planning,Reconaissance,Control & Security... Please continue your stupid drivel. It pleases me to see your ineptitude. FIDO.
12 posted on 07/14/2003 11:46:02 PM PDT by ownaccord (First post...)
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To: meenie
Start reading more threads and reacting, emotional, less. Just a helpful hint. ;^)
13 posted on 07/14/2003 11:52:43 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: meenie
I can't see any difference between your posts and the screaming Democrats I've been watching on the TV shouting matches. Have you officially joined the Democrat Party? Are you on the Democrat talking point mailing list?
14 posted on 07/15/2003 2:00:49 AM PDT by Jim Robinson (Conservative by nature... Republican by spirit... Patriot by heart... AND... ANTI-Liberal by GOD!)
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To: Jim Robinson
Go git 'em Deputy Fife.

He don't always say good stuff about the republicans.

So he must be one o'them dem-o-rats er sumpthin.

15 posted on 07/15/2003 3:32:16 AM PDT by OWK
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To: OWK
Guess so. I don't see a dimes worth of difference between what that guy is saying and what Dean is saying. Must've fallen for the Democrat propaganda hook, line and sinker.
16 posted on 07/15/2003 3:35:29 AM PDT by Jim Robinson (Conservative by nature... Republican by spirit... Patriot by heart... AND... ANTI-Liberal by GOD!)
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To: Jim Robinson
C'mon Jim.

You trot out this "he must be a dem-o-rat" line with every criticism of the GOP anymore.

There are things the GOP does right.

And there are things they do wrong.

We all know the democrats suck. That's what brought most people together here. But sometimes the GOP is just plain wrong.

You used to be a man who was willing to stand up and tell them in no uncertain terms when they were wrong.

Now you not only remain painfully silent of their faults, but you ridicule others for mentioning them.

What did you do with the real Jim?

17 posted on 07/15/2003 3:46:16 AM PDT by OWK
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To: OWK
No, some of you guys are parroting the Democrat lies. I'm standing against the Democrats. If you don't want to defend America when we're at war and you want to use the enemy's propaganda against us, well, don't be surprised when you're labled an enemy sympathizer.

18 posted on 07/15/2003 3:50:15 AM PDT by Jim Robinson (Conservative by nature... Republican by spirit... Patriot by heart... AND... ANTI-Liberal by GOD!)
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To: Jim Robinson
No, some of you guys are parroting the Democrat lies.

You can keep trotting out this tired old line if you want, but you know it ain't so.

Democrats are socialist thieving parasites.

My problem with the GOP, is that they're doing their level best to be just like 'em.

You can make excuses for 'em if you want to... rationalizations about "political necessity" and "real world problems" and "give a little to get a little"... but the fact is, Bush spends like a drunken sailor.

And he spends on social programs, and the kind of federal expansionist nonsense that you used to loathe in the democrats.

Apparently it wasn't the policies you loathed.

Just the people enacting them.

19 posted on 07/15/2003 3:55:58 AM PDT by OWK
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To: OWK
I'm not making ewxcuses for anyone. President Bush is doing a hell of a job wiping out the terrorists and I back him 100% in that effort. I also back him 100% in his effort to turnover the liberal activist judiciary. I'll live with the rest of the baggage just to get those two things accomplished. I see it as the price we pay to end terrorism and to end the abortionist/homosexualist/gungrabbing liberal activist judiciary. After the trillions already stolen from us by the liberal Democrats over the last century, it's not such a large price to pay to end their run. Sorry if the rest of you can't see the forest for the trees.
20 posted on 07/15/2003 4:02:37 AM PDT by Jim Robinson (Conservative by nature... Republican by spirit... Patriot by heart... AND... ANTI-Liberal by GOD!)
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