Posted on 07/11/2003 11:26:19 PM PDT by adamyoshida
A Force for a New Era: The American Military in the 21st Century
The War on Terrorism and the other struggles that lay before the American Republic will require a new military force. Many claim that the present commitments of the Armed Forces are leaving America, “overextended’: and they’re right. But the commitments of the United States today are essential to the future peace of the world and for the protection of the United States. America cannot withdraw, but its forces are too few for the task at hand. What then, is the solution? Simple: America needs a New Model Army.
The Case for a New Model Army: The United States Armed Forces are still fundamentally rooted in the Cold War model. The Army, Air Force, Marines, and Navy today are almost exactly like they were a decade ago in terms of force structure: only smaller. Yet America is faced with new threats. A force for the long term must be able to do all of the following:
• To deter and preempt terrorist attacks. • To respond to and provide relief after a major event such as a nuclear strike by terrorists. • To rapidly intervene in developing (and some developed nations) to overthrow odious regimes and restore order. • To conduct peacekeeping, peace-building, and nation-building activities in many unstable nations which will otherwise become outposts of America’s enemies. • To prepare to confront the emerging threat from China, the threat of a resurgent Russia, the threat of a United Europe, and that of India- possibly in a major conventional or nuclear conflict. • To prevent the emergence of a Superpower competitor to the United States.
Even this understates the case of what might be needed in the future. A decade from now we might require several hundred troops to occupy Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea and Saudi Arabia, as well as another hundred thousand to conduct peacekeeping operations in Africa, a post-Castro Cuba, and countless other places while, at the same time, the Armed Forces are called upon to deter a Chinese threat to Taiwan and a newly-aggressive and nuclear-armed Brazil. Who knows, a decade hence, the Untied States might be forced to keep half a million troops in Europe to guard Eastern European nations which have seceded from the European Union and are now threatened (look at the European reaction to Austria’s election of a ‘rightist’ government. The weaker members of the EU, once they’re in, aren’t leaving without outside help). In any case, the forces available today are insufficient to meet the challenges of this new world.
Seize the Heavens: The key to future American military dominance is the capture of inner and outer space. In the sort term this means building a National Missile Defense to stop incoming Ballistic Missiles, developing and deploying anti-satellite weapons, and upgrading space-based surveillance technologies. However, over the long term, it means much more.
The first step to the true militarization of space is for the United States to abrogate the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. The treaty, which forbids the placement of weapons in space, is a key impediment to future military progress. Once the diplomatic niceties are out of the way, work can begin on a comprehensive system of space-based weapons which will ensure the survival of the Republic for a thousand years.
As always, defense is the first key. The first weapons to be sent into space would be lasers designed to shoot down missiles, specially designed killer satellites designed to kill missiles and other satellites, and, perhaps, missiles designed to shoot down orbiting (or launching) space craft. The technology for these weapons already exists, and could be rapidly assembled into workable weapons systems.
The second stage is offense. Or, in other words, weapons which can be deployed from space to influence events on the earth. Some of the weapons which might be used, such as orbital nuclear weapons platforms, designed to deliver ordinance to the Earth in a matter of seconds, are already feasible. Others, such as non-nuclear kinetic energy weapons (big rocks which could be accurately directed at terrestrial targets) are farther away and carry with them great potential risks.
Even further into the future will be armed vessels which will travel beyond the orbit of the Earth, guarding far-flung American settlements from attack by the ships of other nations and providing forces with which to attack enemy targets on the Earth and elsewhere. This might sound far-fetched, but it is inevitable that humanity will expand beyond the Earth and it is equally certain that they will bring their old conflicts with them. An America with a space-borne military might well go from being a Superpower (or ‘Hyperpower’) into being the ‘Onlypower.’
None of this, however, will happen unless the nation begins to act today. A Space Force should be created, as a co-equal branch of the Armed Forces and a relatively large budget, with the goal of accelerating America’s spaceward push as greatly as possible. Such a force might also be vested with the budget and directive to launch a Mars mission.
A New Force for a New World: America as a global Empire requires far different forces than America as a global power did. In a world of emerging threats, America’s Armed Forces will be at the front line in all sorts of situations at all points in the world. Each will require a unique mix of forces and tactics, and each will be driven along different schedules. Essentially, there will be four sorts of circumstances under which the Armed Forces will be called upon: Routine: Forces will be needed to man a thousand garrisons, to evacuate Americans from nations in chaos, to maintain civil orders in nations where the government has collapsed, and to conduct many sorts of operations other than war. Expeditionary: The Armed Forces will need to maintain troops for wartime combat operations of a conventional nature- such as the war with Iraq or the Kosovo War. They will also be called upon to conduct limited strikes against site suspected of containing weapons of mass destruction, against terrorist leaders, and other targets of opportunity. The character of these missions will be fixed- ending with the end of active hostilities and involve ‘hot’ combat. Extended: Missions such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan will require forces to remain in a location for years, often in a state of Quasi-War, fighting against various insurrectionists, terrorists, and other assorted malcontents. Cataclysmic: Massive forces will be required to restore order and begin reconstruction after a large-scale nuclear or biological attack or for use in a World War.
Now, of course, many missions will combine features of several of these categories. This is to be expected. Moreover, forces which are suitable for one mission will be suitable for another. However, in each case, some professionals, equipment, and units need to be tailor-made for the assignment. This will mean many, very different, kinds of forces.
The Six Types of Forces: Special: (50,000 strength goal) Under the command of Special Operations Command, a unified global command, American Special Forces would continue to be the first line of defense against enemy and terrorist threats. Including units from the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force and (eventually) the Space Force, Special Operations Command is dedicated to conducting raids, harassment of the enemy, the targeted assassination of terrorists and terror suspects, and the support of major combat operations. SOCOM would also exercise primary control over a variety of ‘special’ weapons, including EMP-devices, radio-frequency weapons, and initial variants of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles. SOCOM would also have dedicated transport assets, including tankers and C-17’s. Once deployed, Special Operations forces would fall under the authority of a regional commander.
Strike: (250,000 strength goal) A new unified command, United States Strike Command would include Army, Marine, Navy, Air Force, and Space Force units, Strike Command has a single goal: be capable to delivering an entire combat-ready Division at any point in the world within twenty-four hours of receiving a deployment order and stand ready of delivering a second Division within seventy-two hours and be capable of supporting any deployment with up to five thousands tons of guided ordnance within any twenty-four hour period. Strike Command’s forces would fall outside of the normal regional command structure, and instead would be commander by a single four-star officer who would have the power over forces worldwide. The command would include three complete Airborne Divisions, two light Infantry Divisions, a ‘light’ Armored Division, two Marine Divisions, four Bomber Wings, six fighter wings, and all forward-deployed Carrier Battle Groups. STRIKECOM would have access to the entire transport pool of the Armed Services, which would be shared with Line Forces (with STRIKECOM having priority for use). STRIKECOM forces, even those deployed into the territory of a theatre commander, remain under the command of STRIKECOM until such a time as sufficient Line Forces arrive to allow the withdrawal of Strike units or until the units pass into the command of a theatre CINC after being replaced in the Strike pool by a line or reserve unit.
Strategic: (35,000 strength goal) A revamped Strategic Command would include all nuclear-deterrent and strike forces including ICBM’s, heavy bombers designated for the nuclear-delivery role, Ballistic Missile Submarines, Strategic Missile Defenses, as orbital weapons systems (and, eventually, ones which operate deeper in space) and a specially-trained and equipped Airborne Brigade, designed to survive and fight in a combat environment where weapons of mass destruction are used or to provide relief efforts after a use of WMD. Also under control of Strategic Command would be a fleet of hypersonic bombers, with the mission of delivering a nuclear or conventional strike at any point in the world within one hour of being ordered by the President to do so.
Line: (600,000 strength goal) The great bulk of the present-day Armed Forces would be considered ‘line’ forces. With sixteen Army Divisions, two Marine Divisions, twelve of a projected eighteen Carrier Battle Groups, eight Bomber Wings, twenty-four fighter wings, as well as virtually all other assets of the Armed Forces, Line Forces would constitute the bulk of the combat power of the United States. Line forces would be divided up along conventional lines, with various forces being assigned to the various regional commands which already exist. Strike and Line forces would have identical training and equipment, with readiness being the primary difference. Divisions and forces suitable for use by STRIKECOM would cycle between commands on a pre-determined basis.
Reserve: (600,000 strength goal) Reserve units would serve the same function as they presently do- additional forces to augment the rest of the forces in times of crisis. Reserve units would be equipped along conventional lines and be expected to be rapidly deployable upon mobilization.
Guard: (15,000,000 strength goal) The National Guard would be totally remade under this plan. Instead of a volunteer force, it would become a universal, compulsory-service force along the lines of those that exist in Israel and Switzerland. All American males, during the summer in which they turn eighteen, would be inducted for one year’s active-duty service in the National Guard and be required to do at least two weeks worth of active-duty service until they reached the age of forty (though they would be allowed to remain on past that age if they choose to do so). Anyone volunteering for active duty would not be required to join the National Guard, even after the end of their term of service. Women would be free to volunteer, but would not be drafted, nor would they be inducted into combat units. Exemptions from Guard service would be offered to those who could prove a physical disability and to those willing to sign a statement, under oath, that they are unwilling to defend the United States of America from an enemy attack. The names of those signing such an oath would be made publicly available.
The purpose of the Guard would be threefold: 1) To encourage national unity and patriotism by engaging as many Americans as possible in a positive form of public service. 2) To provide massive available forces to be used for domestic security purposes following a large-scale nuclear or biological attack. 3) To provide a massive pool of organized military manpower in the event of a World War or similar event.
While National Guardsmen would go through the same basic training as any other solider- they would serve in drastically different roles. There would be no organic armor or artillery units in the National Guard, rather all members would be primarily trained as conventional infantrymen. Mobilization and reequipping in the event of a major war would be designed to be possible in four months.
National Guard units would be deliberately designed to be local in character, the idea being that men will serve alongside the people they went to high school with and who they work with. Patriotic education would be a major function of National Guard training (the classroom portions of which would begin early in life), with a special emphasis being placed on teaching the natural superiority of American civilization and of the American government and way of life. Local Guard units would be encouraged to set up sports teams and host other community events. Essentially, the project would entail a partial organization of the unorganized militia of the United States. Frankly, I suspect that this project might also lead to a massive reduction in crime. Like present-day National Guard units, they would be nominally under the command of State Governors and therefore not subject to the jurisdiction of Posse Comitatus.
National Guard units would also be strongly encouraged to, along with local authorities, take the initiative in times of crisis. For example, following the reports of a nuclear attack, units might be used to temporarily impose martial law upon a city to prevent mass deaths in the event of a panic- or to impose a quarantine after a biological event.
A Sharp and Strong Spear: The costs of all of this, I must admit, would be massive. I am not an economist, and I have not made any attempt to figure any of this out mathematically. However, I would suggest that creating and maintaining the Armed Forces that I describe would require that the defense budget be roughly doubled from its present level (to about $800 million). I say this not out of any certainty, but based upon the presumption that the conventional forces I propose are about 50% larger than the present day Armed Forces, and that the creation of the National Guard (along with other unaccounted expenses) would take most of the rest. However, I might note, that this doubling would only bring defense spending up to about 7% of the Gross Domestic Product, hardly an unrealistic figure in a time of crisis. It is roughly in synch with the average level for much of the Cold War as a percentage of the economy (the rate at which the economy has grown, however, would mean that the force would be substantially more powerful than a force which would have cost twice as much of the GDP two decades ago).
However, the protection that this force would bring justifies the cost. What would a single nuclear attack against an American city mean in terms of lives and dollars? What would a smallpox attack mean? The results of action are well known- the results on inaction are too terrible to contemplate.
This would be the Armed Forces for all seasons- ready for action anywhere and everywhere, capable to defeating every single nation in the world simultaneously. It would be a protective shield for America and a crusading force for liberty abroad. Imagine it in action.
A Force in Action: Let’s flash forward thirty years. In the year 2033 a new President has just taken office, young, unsure of himself, he is suddenly confronted with a foreign policy crisis in very unfamiliar territory. Kazakhstan, a nation of twenty-five million people which has prospered in recent years due to its alliance with the People’s Republic of China, has invaded Uzbekistan, an American ally in order to seize control of the shrinking Aral Sea, which is one of the last sources of fresh water in the region. Though the population of Uzbekistan is larger than that of Kazakhstan, its armed forces are comparatively tiny and weak. While China has supplied the Kazakhs with relatively new tanks and aircraft, successive US Administrations have resisted arming the Uzbeks for fear of ‘destabilizing’ the region. The new President, a Democrat, has been accused of being weak on foreign policy and won with the slimmest majority in memory- he is the second Democratic President in three decades. He cannot afford a defeat here and all diplomatic overtures have been rebuffed. Fortunately, his Republican predecessors have given him a magnificent arsenal to draw upon. He decides to strike.
Kazakhstan, a ‘Central Asian Tiger’ whose economy has grown in recent years, has acquired long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, presumably with help from China and Pakistan. The Missiles are housed in fixed silos whose locations were long-ago mapped by US satellites. The first sign that the United States has decided to intervene in the “Water War” comes at 2:45PM (Local) when six hypersonic American B-8C Hyperfortress Bombers drop two dozen deep-penetrating bombs on the Kazakh missile silos near Baykonur. The destruction is believed to be total.
By the end of the second day of the war Kazakh armoured forces have already nearly driven the Uzbeks from the area around the Aral Sea. The troopers of the 11th Airborne Division are preparing to arrive in theatre, but will not be ready for combat for at least another full day, during which time the Kazakh advance will have penetrated even further into Uzbek territory. Air strikes are having some effect on the advance, but the modern surface to air missiles provided to the Kazakh’s by the Chinese are forcing us planes to keep their distance. To buy time for organization on the ground, America’s Shadow Warriors are called upon.
A-Teams of Green Berets, already stationed in Uzbekistan at the opening of the war, are already in the field- some of them have already been inserted into Kazakhstan. Supplies of fuel and ammunition are being brought to the front using every means available to the Kazakhs. Using specialized communications equipment the A-Teams call in special missiles from the USS Virginia, an Attack Submarine offshore. The Cruise missiles fly over a dozen different supply convoys along virtually every major highway in Kazakhstan then pop and seemingly fizzle. The Kazakh drivers laugh until they notice that every electronic in their vehicles is no longer functioning- they’ve been EMP’ed. Carefully positioned snipers fire upon the convoys, creating even more chaos. The panicked (and largely civilian) drivers abandon the trucks. Efforts to recover them or clear the roads are prevented for hours by carefully placed exploding bullets which prove the continued flammability of petroleum-based substances. By morning there are ten thousand Kazakh troops pursuing fewer than one hundred Green Berets, and the roads are still not clear. The advance is slowed down for fear of fuel and ammunitions shortages. The entire advance has been imperilled for a cost of just two Special Forces Sergeants killed by a lucky mortar shell.
On the fourth day of conflict nearly two hundred American UCAV’s, pre-positioned in theatre, enter the battle- striking against the air defenses of the advancing Kazakh forces. They are followed by nearly one hundred large bombers, which drop nearly ten thousand tons of enhanced explosives on the Kazakhs. Simultaneously, the aircraft of three Carriers, joined by three hundred other tactical aircraft and preceded by five hundred Cruise missiles, begin to systematically strike the air defenses of Kazakhstan. Two dozen missiles obliterate the governing complex.
As US aircraft do their work, the 11th Airborne Division moves onto the line to stiffen the Uzbek forces. Already advance teams for the 42nd Infantry Division (Light) are in the region. With the help of the Air Force and Navy, the Cavalry Regiment attached to the 11th quickly turns a hasty defense into a hasty attack which, in turn, suddenly becomes the main line of advance. After two days of combat, the Kazakh forces find themselves in full retreat, with many units already dissolving. Reinforcement and resupply have been virtually stopped by constant air and Special Forces attacks. Other special forces are using EMP weapons against Kazakh air bases while others are using Radio Frequency Weapons to seek out and kill those manning (and defending) surface to air missile sites. The President of Kazakhstan unilaterally declares a cease fire, and the US President accepts. A major regional war has been won in a handful of days by overwhelming firepower and rapidly prepared forces.
But a war like this is not the only way that such a force could prove to be of magnificent use. Consider a more major war.
In 2032 a biological plague begins to spread in American cities. It’s contagious, and kills thousands of people after it first manifests itself. The President is among the first victims, as are other high government officials, including the Vice President and numerous others in the line of succession. In the initial breakdown of communications (and the hours while Cabinet Secretaries lay sick and dying) it’s unclear just who is President.
The National Guard, along with local officials and State Governors, are the first to act. Many local units begin to implement quarantine procedures upon first word of the spread of the contagion- in many cases quarantining their own at gunpoint. At some points it’s messy and some people are killed in shoot-outs as they desperately flee. However, the plan holds. Areas with the most reported infections are sealed at gunpoint, with the National Guardsmen being sealed inside by excess soldiers drawn from other areas along with regular Army units. A virtual national lock-down causes the disease to burn itself out within a few weeks. Such a thing would not be possible without the National Guard- nor would it be possible, under such circumstances, for America to retain a defensive posture without the Special Forces, the overseas units of Strike Command, or the assets of the strategic command. When, a few weeks later, it is revealed that the plague was a result of Chinese actions it is possible for the United States to mobilize enough forces to rapidly defeat China while caring for the victims of the plague and preparing to defend against another such attack.
A Time for Action: Tomorrow will be too late to prepare for war. This is, perhaps, the gravest threat ever faced by the Republic. In the days to come America must invest in its own future or face the possibility that there will be no future. Like it or not, we live in a world that has walls and those walls need to be defended by men with guns.
Now, will more Carriers be needed? Certianly. Especially as tools for power projection. Also the DD(X) and CG(X) type ships will be required as well as additional Virginia class Submarines. But the building programs for most of those ships can be scaled to keep pace with the Chinese buildup- the US lead is so huge, it just has to work to maitiain it at sea
We are planing to replace 31 Spruance class Destroyers (24 active) and 48 OH Perry Frigates with 32 DDX Zumwalts.
Do the math. That is a loss of 40 ships in our inventory. I say replace the Spriances with 32 DDX and have some new frigates. In the meantime, upgrade the OH Perry's so that can handle teh SM-2 missle instead of the obsolete SM1R.
As I noted before, we normally only keep 1/3 of our fleet deployed at a given point (1/3 more deployable and 1/3 layed up). Of this only about 1/4 is in the Pacific. That means that you should compare China's strength to that of 1/12 to 1/6 of our navy.
Recall, China has only a handful of even semi-modern surface combatants- a pair of Sovremennyy-class Destroyers and a few recently-built ships which compare unfavorably with the old Adams-class Destroyers or a Perry-class FFG.
How does the Soveremennyy compare poorly with an Adams?
It's sam's have the same range (assuming that the Gadflies are not replaced with Grizzlies). However, it still has a better anti-missle defense with its AK-630s.
They carry the Moskit missle, which has a loinger range than the Harpoon IC and is a supersonic sea-skimmer designed to defeat the Aegis/Sm-2 systems.
Frankly, on paper the Soveremenny compares well with the Kidds.
It's most advanced submarines (those presently under construction- named Project 093) are, at best, going to be comperable to the old Soviet Victor III's. The Han class SSN's that the Chinese have now are first generation boats in every sense the world- no better than a Russian November or a British Dreadnought or a US Natutilis. It's formidible against the other smaller fleets in the region- but nothing compared to US attack boats.
You forgot about the diesel-electric subs, which are quiet when running on batteries.
You are correct that we could defeat China ono-on-one. However, China would only act when we are over extended, like today.
I agree with you about the Soveremenny's- but I wasn't talking about them, I was talking about the Luhu's and the like, which are substantially less advanced. China, bear in mind, only has two Soveremenny's with two more on order.
The Luhu's and Luda's are obsolete. However, the new type 52 destroyers are not.
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/surface/052c.asp
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/surface/052b.asp
Comming less than 5 years after the Luhu, these are a generation ahead and are closing in on us if they are carrying the S-300.
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