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Trpical Storm Claudette
Paraphrased from National Weather Service

Posted on 07/11/2003 5:03:05 AM PDT by john316

Claudette has changed little in strength overnight and the center is now located over the extreme northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Latest satellite imagery continues to show a rather ragged looking tropical cyclone with most of the thunderstorms still located north and east of the center. The outflow has improved somewhat to the north and east of the center even though there still appears to be some shear affecting the system from the southwest. Claudette is expected to re-emerge over the southern Gulf later this morning, at which time a slow strengthening trend will begin, especially if the shear diminishes further. There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the overall strength of Claudette prior to making landfall over south Texas as conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for strengthening with time. We are still forecasting Claudette to become a Category One hurricane prior to making landfall, however, if the shear diminishes completely, then additional strengthening will be possible.

Claudette continues to move towards the northwest in response to a weakening ridge of high pressure located north of the storm. We expect this general motion to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as steering currents continue to weaken . Beyond 24 hours, we expect Claudette to make a gradual turn towards the west as high pressure re-builds across the northern Gulf. Just how soon Claudette makes this westward turn will ultimately determine how far north landfall occurs. A later turn would result in landfall farther north, perhaps along the upper Texas coast or even southwestern Louisiana. If Claudette turns westward sooner, landfall would occur farther south, over northern Mexico.

The next forecast track will be issued near 10:30am CDT this morning


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: claudette; hurricane; tropicalstorm
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To: john316

21 posted on 07/11/2003 7:46:11 AM PDT by truthandlife
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To: Dog Gone

22 posted on 07/11/2003 7:48:39 AM PDT by truthandlife
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To: truthandlife
I don't mind that forecast too much (mainly since I don't live anywhere near Brownsville). A nice category one hurricane hitting there would flush out the Rio Grande, which it badly needs.
23 posted on 07/11/2003 7:53:47 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: eastforker
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 11, 2003

 
morning satellite imagery indicates the center of Claudette is over
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula to the southwest of broadly
curved deep convection.  An Air Force reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft reports flight-level winds of 55 kt northeast of the
center and suggests the central pressure remains near 1008 mb. 
Based on this and persistence from the previous advisory...the
maximum winds remain 50 kt.

The initial motion is 315/12...although visible imagery suggests it
might be a little slower.  Water vapor imagery shows a weakening
upper-level low west of Claudette...with broad troughing over the
eastern United States between large anticyclones over the
southwestern U.S. And the western Atlantic.  Enough ridging remains
east and northeast of Claudette to keep the storm moving
northwestward in the short term...with gradual deceleration as the 
cyclone approaches the weakness created by the trough.  After 36
hr...large-scale models suggests the trough should slowly weaken
and move eastward...which would allow ridging to build and steer
Claudette more westward.  Most NHC track guidance agrees with this
scenario...although BAMD...nhc98...and LBAR move the cyclone
northward to the northern Gulf Coast.  The official forecast will
go with the westward turn...calling for a landfall near the mouth
of the Rio Grande in about 96 hr.

 
Claudette remains disorganized and in significant southerly shear. 
This and land interaction will likely prevent strengthening for
12-24 hours.  After that...the intensity depends on how a large
upper-level anticyclone forecast by the dynamical models actually
develops.  The UKMET and NOGAPS develop the anticyclone over
Claudette.  On the other hand...the GFS and Canadian develop the
anticyclone south of the forecast track... which would expose the
storm to 15-30 kt of westerly shear.  The models have been too
aggressive in developing this feature to put full Faith in the
UKMET and NOGAPS...so the intensity forecast will call for only
gradual strengthening.  However...if the GFS and Canadian verify...
strengthening could be even slower than currently forecast.

 

24 posted on 07/11/2003 8:03:52 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: john316
The computer models have changed again this afternoon. New Orleans is no longer the consensus target. In fact, only one model targets a Louisiana strike (near Lafayette). Corpus Christi is now in the crosshairs, although a Brownsville landing is still the choice of BAM medium model.
25 posted on 07/11/2003 1:10:08 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: truthandlife
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on July 11, 2003

 
Claudette is quite disorganized this afternoon.  The low-level
center has become elongated east-northeast to west-southwest...and
there are 3 or 4 cloud swirls/vorticity centers rotating around the
mean center.  The strongest remaining convection is well east of
the center.  Based on the 50-55 kt flight level winds reported
earlier by the reconnaissance aircraft and the degraded satellite
appearence...the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt.

The initial motion is an uncertain 310/12.  Water vapor imagery
shows an upper-level cyclonic shear axis west of Claudette...with a
mid/upper-level trough over the central and eastern United States
extending southwestward to near 32n92w.  A large upper-level
anticyclone is centered near Grand Cayman island.  Surface and
rawinsonde data indicates low-level ridging over the northern Gulf
of Mexico.  Present indications are the trough will reach its
maximum southern extent near 85w or east of the longitude of
Claudette...and that the trough is unlikely to recurve the cyclone. 
Most dynamic guidance responds to this pattern by moving Claudette
northwest for 24-48 hours...followed by a gradual westward turn. 
The LBAR and the mm5 take the storm toward Louisiana...which looks
strange in light of the northerly 500 mb flow that all models
forecast in that area.  The UKMET has also jumped further north...
but is inconsistent with its previous runs and is thus discounted
for the moment.  The track forecast will be an update of the
previous package and down the middle of the westward model suite.

Claudette remains in significant southerly shear.  This and the
current disorganization will likely prevent strengthening for
12-24 hours.  After that...the intensity depends on how a large
upper-level anticyclone forecast by the dynamical models actually
develops.  The NOGAPS is now the only model to develop the
anticyclone over Claudette.  The UKMET...GFS...and Canadian develop
the anticyclone south of the forecast track... which would expose
the cyclone to some westerly shear.  This looks like the most
likely scenario...and the intensity forecast calls for only slow
development in response.  It should be noted that if Claudette
strengthens significantly during the first 24 hr...the storm could
move more toward the north due to the southerly upper-level flow. 
The chances of this appear low at this time.

The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet is currently conducting a synoptic
surveillance mission...with the data to be used in the 00z models.

26 posted on 07/11/2003 2:20:00 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
Is there a 5pm update?
27 posted on 07/11/2003 3:05:37 PM PDT by Aggie Mama
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To: Dog Gone
Where are you getting your info on it hitting Corpus Christi??? - just wondering so I can keep an eye on it also--since we live in Corpus - have already bought boards this a.m. stores where already going crazy!!! the news here is still saying north Mexico or Brownsville but I don't trust out weathermen at times - lol
28 posted on 07/11/2003 3:15:20 PM PDT by seahawk
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To: My back yard; mstar
Ping to some Gulf Coast FReepers...
29 posted on 07/11/2003 3:24:18 PM PDT by Bear_in_RoseBear (Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.)
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To: All
Some sources for WX info:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.com/

http://weather.iwon.com/index_static.html

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kdtx.shtml

http://weather.unisys.com/index.html

http://www.wxmesg.com/

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

30 posted on 07/11/2003 3:31:02 PM PDT by backhoe
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To: backhoe
Thanks for the links.
31 posted on 07/11/2003 3:59:33 PM PDT by Ditter
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To: Ditter
Thanks for looking!
32 posted on 07/11/2003 4:32:10 PM PDT by backhoe
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To: Dog Gone
Some models are projecting rather seemingly wacky solutions. There are quite a few according to StormTrakker software.

It really looked like it was a goner earlier today, so I am amazed that recently the storm blew up around the center again (I believe; I will have to check its location). It could just be its nocturnal blow-up that means nothing in the morning like often happens, but we will see. It isn't even night yet here in the central time zone.....plenty of light still.
33 posted on 07/11/2003 6:09:58 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("There is dust enough on some of your Bibles to write 'damnation' with your fingers." C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas
The flare-up appears to be just to the northeast of the center a bit.
34 posted on 07/11/2003 6:19:11 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("There is dust enough on some of your Bibles to write 'damnation' with your fingers." C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: seahawk
I was simply commenting on the computer models that the National Hurricane Center uses in generating their own forecast. They are updated several times a day, and the various models often provide wildly varying results. They also change dramatically during each update (usually) and that's why they aren't really forecasts.

This morning, most of the models show the storm headed towards Brownsville, and none show Corpus Christi in the path. One model, though, projects the storm to hit Houston. The NHC will undoubtedly ignore that particular model out in its next update.

35 posted on 07/12/2003 7:49:33 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
The storm is going more and more north in latitude despite the NHC claiming otherwise. Just take a look at the sat, yet they claim it is going northwest. Hogwash.
36 posted on 07/12/2003 11:54:45 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("There is dust enough on some of your Bibles to write 'damnation' with your fingers." C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas; Dog Gone
Hey guys,look at the latest imagery.Not only did she move a little north and east,it looks like we might have a differant entity forming in the bay of campeche,the forecasters didn't even mention that.All right gulf coast FReepers,be on your toes the next48-72 hours,it could get rough.
37 posted on 07/13/2003 2:15:35 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker
I think a lot of my prob with the NHC handling of this storm (keep in mind I am an amateur) is that until today, they acted like the center, which is to the southwest of most convection, somehow is all that matters. That is just not thte case.....this thing will have a major impact for a good portion of Texas, even if the center itself does hit southern TX.
38 posted on 07/13/2003 3:12:05 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("There is dust enough on some of your Bibles to write 'damnation' with your fingers." C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas
The thing forming just east of Puerto Rico looks more menacing to me.
39 posted on 07/13/2003 6:02:12 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: john316
Storm Gathers Strength In Gulf Of Mexico
40 posted on 07/13/2003 8:39:38 PM PDT by blam
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