Iranian Alert -- DAY 31 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST [Riots erupt]

Live Thread Ping List | 7.10.2003 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

The next 24-72 hours may be the most important in Iran's history. As Michael Ledeen posted yesterday, "...we can already say that the regime's intimidation was not successful. And you have to admire the courage of these young Iranians..." The events there are encouraging.

We have heard of a demonstration yesterday with about 100,000 Iranians in the Pars region of the city of Tehran. This is a huge demonstration given that the regime was doing everything possible to keep people from gathering in this matter.

We are continuing to hear of the regime’s jamming of the broadcasts in much of Iran. But apparently the signals are getting through much more often.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a country. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to post your news stories and comments to this thread.

Thanks for all the help.

DoctorZin

[nuconvert]

This piece on NITV was informative and entertaining.

Atabay said, "Somebody by mistake connected our signal to the European and Middle East satellite and we find out they are seeing us, in Iran. And Iranian people thought there was a revolution."
Atabay sure sounds like he's found his calling.
What about this "Col. Klink" character? Run into him at the station?
Seems like there's enough money out there to support the station. Especially since he's running it on a shoestring. Do they have advertisers?

[nuconvert]

There's an article all about this on last night's thread - done by NBC (yep) investigater. Also there's a separate thread about it. They're leaning toward South America. Scary Hezbollah group down there.

[Valin]

Great! That's all south america needs more terrorist.

[nuconvert]

"There is also a significant presence of the Hezbollah organization there with a reputation for violence. Hezbollah operators from the region are believed to have been responsible for one or both of the attacks on the Israeli community in Buenos Aires over the past decade, killing more than 100 Israelis and Argentine Jews.]" (from the NBC article)

I don't understand how these pockets of terrorists are allowed to exist.

[MLedeen]

you can find the transcript on the state dept web site (I stink at links), I think it was 1st of July or 2nd.

My article in the Sun was monday.

we're in London, en route to vacation, hard and costly to stay on line here in the airport...

[Pan_Yans Wife]

My uncle tells me al Qaeda is in Quito, where he lives. I heard recently that al Qaeda is in 70 countries. I am sure Hezbollah is similar.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

NITV can now reach about one quarter of the Iranian population by satellite. After 9/11, when Atabay called on Iranians to show their support for America, thousands turned out for a candlelight vigil. And when street demonstrations broke out this year, the Iranian-American stations acted as a communications hub for the protestors.

A grassroots movement!

[firewalk]

bttt

[SauronOfMordor]

"The pent-up anger is still there, beneath the surface. But for it to seriously take off you need a catalyst, you need a cause, you need organisation and leadership. It's a big task," one European diplomat said.

The problem in trying to overthrow a totalitarian government is the vulnerability of your own leadership and communications

There is a technique to get around this. It's called "leaderless resistance". It involves committed individuals acting alone or in very tiny groups, with no attempt to coordinate. In its essence: you see a mullah or pro-govt vigilante walking around -- kill him if it can be done with minimal risk. Take whatever action can be taken, do it quietly, and disappear into the night to strike again at a time and place of your own choosing

[DoctorZIn]

...Stupid question time. Just how much power and authority does President Mohammad Khatami have? Assuming he really wanted to institute reforms could he have done it, or is the office of president a figurehead position?...

In the Islamic Republic of Iran almost all power is vested in their Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. He was not elected by a popular vote of the people. The real power of the regime lies with the Khamenei and the other hardliners that control the Judiciary, military, and most other levers of power.

The president in Iran has very limited powers. He has a cabinet with limited powers. The same is true for their "more" popularly elected parliament. Any laws created by the parliament can be overturned by a group of hard line clerics called the Guardian Council. The parliament, can then appeal the issue to another hardline group called the Expediency Council. This council is supposed to mediate the issues, but it is controlled by the same kinds of clerics as the Guardian council, with the former president of Iran,Rafsanjani, on the council. In other words, Khatami can try to pass all the legislation he wants, but he is can be stopped at every step.

The people of Iran voted overwhelmingly for Muslim cleric Khatami with the hopes that he would use his popular mandate to force the hardliners to compromise. He has made statements threatening resignation if the hardliners don't compromise, but he is still there. Today, the students of Iran as well as the population generally no longer believe he is any different from the rest of the hardline clerics.

As I have said before, in the last election the students asked the people not to participate in the illegitimate elections of an illegitimate regime. As a result only around 12% of the population voted in the last election, and that in a country where voting is mandatory.

So to the masses of Iran, Khatami is now irrelevant.

I hope this helps.

DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

...There was a report yesterday(?) that the jamming is coming from our old friend castro. ...

Here is the latest, but they still aren't sure who actually had been jamming the uplink signals... but it is a good article.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_1056.shtml

[DoctorZIn]

..This piece on NITV was informative and entertaining... ...Seems like there's enough money out there to support the station....

Actually, they are in desperate need for funds, as are most of the real warriors in this effort. Azadi TV and SMCCDI also are radically underfunded. They are doing this now because they believe in the work. They have a few advertisers, but it is not enough, not nearly enough.

[DoctorZIn]

...There is a technique to get around this. It's called "leaderless resistance". It involves committed individuals acting alone or in very tiny groups, with no attempt to coordinate. In its essence: you see a mullah or pro-govt vigilante walking around -- kill him if it can be done with minimal risk. Take whatever action can be taken, do it quietly, and disappear into the night to strike again at a time and place of your own choosing...

I am already hearing reports that that may end up being the next phase of resistance. More on this later.

[nuconvert]

I understand. I was agreeing with the writer, that in reality, there are enough people with the kind of money to support the stations, but don't. It's difficult to underatnd why when you see the role the stations play.

[DoctorZIn]

I couldn't agree more.

[Persia]

I strongly disagree with the article b/c it feeds the same old lies and deceptions of Khatami being the chose of the people (after he was vetted by an extremely hard-line group of 12 mind you).

Iranians want a secular democracy based on it's history.

The idea of an Islamic Democracy in a country of 2,500 of secularism is a joke

[JulieRNR21]

Here's the article you wanted me to post:

US Senate Passes Pro-Democracy Legislation Aimed at Iran

Deborah Tate
Washington
09 Jul 2003, 19:30 UTC


The U.S. Senate Wednesday night passed a measure aimed at supporting pro-democracy advocates in Iran. The chamber acted as demonstrators rallied in Tehran and in Washington to mark the fourth anniversary of violent student protests in the Iranian capital.

The "Iran Democracy Act", which passed by voice vote, would, among other things, expand U.S.-funded radio and television broadcasts to Iran and call for an internationally-monitored referendum to allow the Iranian people to peacefully change their system of government.

Just hours after pro-democracy demonstrators clashed with police and vigilantes in Tehran, Senator Sam Brownback, a Kansas Republican, brought his legislation to the Senate floor for the vote.

"It is clear by the Iranian regime's treatment of its own people in their attempt to be heard that Iran is no democracy," he said. "We should clearly establish that we are opposed to the regime in Tehran, but we are with the people of Iran."

The measure is attached as an amendment to the State Department's budget bill, which funds U.S. foreign operations. The House must act on the bill before it is sent to President Bush for his signature. The Bush administration, which has designated Iran part of an axis of evil and a key state sponsor of terrorism, has signaled that it supports the measure.

Senator Brownback said supporting the forces of democracy in Iran is in the direct security interests of the United States. He noted international concerns about Iran's nuclear program, and Iran's confirmation this week that it tested a mid-range missile, capable of striking a number of targets in the Middle East, including Israel.

"This means that Iran could have nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, to hit at us, or our friends and allies in the region," he said. "Clearly this is a bad situation which is getting worse by the day."

Earlier, at a rally in support of democracy in Iran held on the grounds of the U.S. Capitol, Senator Brownback offered encouragement to democracy advocates protesting in Iran.

"Stay strong, and know that America supports you," he said, "and we will be there to help you rebuild your beautiful land, hopefully next July, hopefully next July, as America celebrates its Independence Day, we can rejoice with you in celebrating your independence!"

Hundreds of Iranian-Americans turned out for the rally.


http://www.voanews.com/PrintArticle.cfm?objectID=AD4B6EFE-9D1F-49D2-AB6304DE1A1F6F72&title=US%20Senate%20Passes%20Pro%2DDemocracy%20Legislation%20Aimed%20at%20Iran

[DoctorZIn]

I agree...
I thought www.stratfor.com was a more accurate group. But the article had factual as well as interpretive mistakes. If I have time later I will try to address these.

[DoctorZIn]

Thanks

[AdmSmith]

IRANIAN REGIME IMPOSES NEWS BLACKOUT.

As of 7:30 a.m. Tehran time on 10 July, domestic Iranian broadcasting carried no news of the previous night's events. Moreover, the broadcasts of Los Angeles-based Persian-language satellite-television stations, such as Pars TV, Channel 1 TV, NITV, and Azadi TV, were being jammed and could not be received in Iran. Mobile-telephone service in parts of Tehran allegedly was shut down, too. The websites of the news agencies ISNA, Baztab, Mehr, and Fars were not updated during the night, and although it was updated regularly the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) carried no news about the unrest. The reformist Iranian print media complained that it was acting on a government directive that forbade reporting about the events of the previous day. A 10 July editorial in "Yas-i No" apologized because it could not mention "a single word about the 9 July anniversary of that regrettable and criminal event." It said that "every reference to 9 July, except the date of publication, had to be removed because of the imposed restrictions." BS

DETAINED CANADIAN JOURNALIST REPORTEDLY IN COMA IN IRAN. The Iranian government has agreed to permit an independent physician to examine Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi, "The Toronto Star" reported on 10 July. Her son said Kazemi is in a coma and shows signs of having been severely beaten after being taken into custody last month and accused of espionage. Kazemi's family said she was taken into custody on 23 June after photographing Evin Prison. Canadian Foreign Ministry spokesman Reynald Doiron said that as of 9 July the Iranian government had not responded to an official demand for an explanation. Canadian officials who went to Baghiatollah Hospital in Tehran were only allowed to view Kazemi through a plate-glass window, "The Globe and Mail" reported on 9 July. "We couldn't tell whether she was just plain unconscious, or in a coma, or sleeping," Doiron said. BS

source RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 7, No. 129, Part III, 10 July 2003