Iranian Alert -- DAY 31 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST [Riots erupt]

Live Thread Ping List | 7.10.2003 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

The next 24-72 hours may be the most important in Iran's history. As Michael Ledeen posted yesterday, "...we can already say that the regime's intimidation was not successful. And you have to admire the courage of these young Iranians..." The events there are encouraging.

We have heard of a demonstration yesterday with about 100,000 Iranians in the Pars region of the city of Tehran. This is a huge demonstration given that the regime was doing everything possible to keep people from gathering in this matter.

We are continuing to hear of the regime’s jamming of the broadcasts in much of Iran. But apparently the signals are getting through much more often.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a country. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to post your news stories and comments to this thread.

Thanks for all the help.

DoctorZin

[RaceBannon]

cheapo Kodak, 4 years old or so, no big deal

[the Real fifi]

I would dearly love to post this on another site. It deserves a lot of coverage,but unfortunately I cannot do that in this format. If the NY Sun will allow it free on its site to nonsubscribers, we should all get this around.

OTOH maybe someone should send it to Limbaugh, Fox, etc.

It is a fabulous article.

[nuconvert]

Very Good piece.

Why didn't Powell correct the media on Monday? Tuesday?
They sent a Rep for the state dept. out, but why not have Powell make a statement, or write one, correcting the "disinformation" job Reuters did? It was such a critical time. He knew the radio and TV stations here could have helped get the word out.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

Powell left for Africa on Monday, I believe... so, I think he has been kind of busy, this week. However, does anyone know if he was on the Sunday Morning Talk Shows, and if he was, did anyone bring up the subject of Iran?

[DoctorZIn]

Has anyone heard from Khashayar?

I am concerned about him.

DoctorZin

[nuconvert]

Yes, he's in Africa. Could have written a statement (dictated one) and had the state dept. rep. read it.

[Valin]

That's kind of the way I thought it was. Thanks.

[nuconvert]

This seems about the time Khashayar shows up.
Let's give it a bit longer before we all worry.

[Burkeman1]

It would have been nice to actually read Ledeen's piece but it was quite small in your post.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

Was he on the talk shows...or was Boucher? What is the last statement about Iran and the protest, from the State Dept?

I think I may have heard that the State Dept. wasn't going to play it up much in the press, until it happened. Why discuss it a great deal, only to have the Irnanian gov't crack down so hard that the protests never get off of the ground? That wouldn't make sense, would it?

[Pan_Yans Wife]

He already apologized for the format, didn't you notice?

[Pan_Yans Wife]

It seems so quiet without him here already. I wonder how today was for him.

[nuconvert]

I didn't see the talk shows. I believe I was here. But Boucher made the correction on Tuesday at a State Dept. press conference. Just wasn't Powell's own words. That would have been more POWErful. (sorry)

[Burkeman1]

Nope- But criminey- I can't read that small.

[nuconvert]

It was very large type on mine.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

Here is one from today.


The Future of Iran: Armitage might want to rethink that "democracy" line

http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com |

Yesterday, July 9, was the day the Iranian student movement has designated for national demonstrations against the regime, and a general strike in favor of democracy. Shaken by weeks of recent protests, and worried about the mounting criticism from several Western countries, the regime has taken unprecedented steps to head off a potential showdown with its own people:

Thousands of political activists, students, and others, have been rounded up and packed into prisons, subjected to torture, and in some cases murdered.

Children of parliamentarians have been summarily arrested, as have parents of Iranian democracy advocates living abroad.

Great efforts have gone into ensuring that Iranians cannot communicate with one another, either by telephone (cells have been shut down) or radio or television (the U.S.-based independent radio and television stations have been reporting a new jamming campaign against their satellite broadcasts. As of late on the night of the 8th, it was impossible to isolate the source of the jamming). Satellite dishes have been torn down, and smashed in the streets.

Ditto for the press. Journalists have been arrested, newspapers have been closed. In short, everything the regime could do to isolate the Iranian people from the outside world has been done.

New security forces have been recruited. Lacking confidence in the willingness of Iranians to beat and kill their own, the regime has brought in Lebanese Hezbollahi, members of the Badr Brigades from Iraq (where they'd been dispatched as part of the "insurgency" against American forces), the usual "Afghan Arabs," and, reportedly, Palestinian toughs. All reminiscent of the Chinese tactics in Tiananmen Square, where they imported soldiers from remote regions to suppress the pro-democracy uprising.

For those who believe that revolution is a test of will, and that a regime willing to use any amount of terror required to retain power will probably survive, these are at once ominous and encouraging signs. Ominous, because this regime does not appear ready to go quietly; encouraging, because the mullahs are not facing a handful of revolutionaries, but a mass movement.

I have long argued that the United States could provide the decisive support that would guarantee success of the democratic revolution. All Iranians, from the top ayatollahs to the student organizers, believe that America is capable of guaranteeing the outcome of the conflict, and they are all trying to decipher the American strategy. Whenever President Bush speaks warmly of the demonstrators, they are enormously encouraged; whenever some other official — typically from the State Department — speaks words subject to many interpretations (or, worse still, proclaims the current regime "a democracy," as Deputy Secretary of State Armitage did in February), it sends a chill through the hearts of the freedom fighters. Despite the endless barrage of anti-American rhetoric from the mullahs, they still maneuver to be able to demonstrate American acceptance of their power, knowing that any hint of American legitimization of the regime will weaken their opponents.

In Iran, where treachery has long been the national sport and superstition the bedrock of political analysis, the people are casting runes and reading entrails, searching for certainty about the American strategy. Once they know it, they will act accordingly. If they see clearly, once and for all, that the United States is serious about regime change in Tehran, the ranks of the opposition will swell beyond counting. If they conclude that we have betrayed them to their masters, they will give up the struggle, at least temporarily. This is yet another reason why a clear American policy is so desperately needed. And still, the defining document, the long-awaited National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) on Iran, gathers mold in the bowels of the bureaucracy, even though we have declared ourselves at war with the terror masters since September 12, 2001.

In this confusion, the mullahs are stalling for time. They believe that if they can ride the whirlwind until next year, the president will forget foreign policy and devote all his energies to his reelection. They also believe that they can bloody us in Iraq, sending scores or even hundreds of body bags to American shores, eventually sapping our will and sending us home. And they believe that once they can demonstrate possession of an atomic bomb, they will become the North Korea of the Middle East, invulnerable to American attack.

They are wrong on all counts. If this president sees our victory in Iraq threatened by Iranian sabotage, he will act with the same resolve he has shown since the war against the terror masters began nearly two years ago. Nothing would spur him on more than the spectacle of dead American soldiers. And an Iranian bomb would only add to his urgency, and strengthen the case for American support of the democratic revolution. The bomb might deter a military attack, but the doom of the mullahs will not come from the barrel of a gun. It will come from millions of Iranians in the public spaces of the major cities, demanding an end to their misery.

JWR contributor Michael Ledeen is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of, most recently, ""The War Against the Terror Masters," Comment by clicking here.

[nuconvert]

Very Good. Thank you. I like JWR. Haven't visited there in about 2wks due the time I've spent here.

[Valin]

Her son said Kazemi is in a coma and shows signs of having been severely beaten after being taken into custody last month and accused of espionage.

An obvious case of "resisting arrest".

[nuconvert]

"you can usually find his or her essays and articles posted on the website of that think tank"

Well how stupid do I feel? Duh

Thank You.