Edwards pressed for word on status of Senate run
Observers cite varied possibilities
By JOHN WAGNER, Washington Correspondent
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH -- Warren Gentry was among the dozens of beach- goers who greeted U.S. Sen. John Edwards warmly here Friday and wished him well on his White House bid.
But after the North Carolina Democrat and his entourage had moved down the strand on his annual beach walk, Gentry, a film producer from Raleigh, said he hoped Edwards would soon decide what to do about his Senate seat, which is also on the ballot in 2004.
"That's a very important thing for him to do," said Gentry, who voted for Edwards in 1998. "That could be the downside, if he doesn't get the nomination and the Democrats lose the Senate seat."
Six months into Edwards' presidential bid, such sentiments are becoming increasingly common.
From all appearances, Edwards is running full-bore for his party's presidential nomination and doing very little to prepare for a 2004 re-election bid. But he has yet to publicly foreclose that option.
During an afternoon reception at the Block ade Runner, a beachfront hotel, Edwards was peppered with questions from reporters but allowed very little about his intentions.
"I will make a decision down the road," he said. "I have not determined when that'll be."
Pressed, Edwards said he would factor into his thinking "what I think is best for North Carolina and what the dynamic is in the presidential race."
Under current law, Edwards' name could appear on the ballot for both offices -- president and senator -- though few political observers believe that is likely.
That's in part because a rash of states have now moved up their p residential primaries and caucuses in hopes of producing a Democratic nominee early in 2004. As a result, 16 states will have already held nominating contests by Feb. 27, the deadline in North Carolina for filing to run for U.S. Senate.
By then, Edwards is virtually certain to know whether he has a chance to be the nominee.
Edwards acknowledged that he could wait until late February to make a decision on the Senate seat during a TV interview that ran this spring in New Hampshire, host of the traditional first presidential primary.
If Edwards waited until February, he might be able to regroup in time to run a competitive race for re-election, with the benefit of a national fund-raising base and publicity garnered during his presidential bid.
Many Democratic insiders, however, say that scenario is unfair to others who might want to run for Edwards' seat.
While attending a fund-raiser for Edwards last month, Erskine Bowles, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate last year, said he would have to start raising money and building an organization about Labor Day -- Sept. 1 -- to make another credible run.
Former state Rep. Dan Blue, who lost the Democratic nomination to Bowles, has made similar comments.
The pressure for a Democrat to start running has increased in recent weeks because Republicans are rallying around their likely Senate nominee: U.S. Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem.
Burr's campaign already has more than $3.3 million in the bank, said his political consultant, Paul Shumaker. Among those helping Burr raise money are two men who aided Bowles in 2002: James Hance, Bank of America's chief financial officer, and R.V. Owens, a politically connected restaurant owner on the Outer Banks.
"You're starting to see defections like that," said Brad Crone, a Democratic political consultant in Raleigh. "I think the latest Edwards can wait and be fair is Labor Day. Anytime after that is really going to hurt our nominee."
Scott Falmlen, the state Democratic Party's executive director, said there may come a time when Edwards' indecision hurts the party's chances of hanging onto his Senate seat. But Falmlen said it is not clear when that is.
It is unclear how much better of a read Edwards will have on his presidential prospects by Sept. 1.
During the first half of the year, Edwards raised more than $12 million for his presidential bid -- more money than all but one of his eight rivals, U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, according to estimates provided by campaign officials this week.
But the senator from North Carolina remains in the single digits in polls from key early states.
Aides insist Edwards' low standing is not surprising, given his early focus on fund raising. In coming months, Edwards plans to ramp up his operations considerably in early states, aides say. But any payoff isn't likely to be reflected until the fall, when candidates start running TV ads and more voters start paying attention to politics.
Some Democrats suggest a middle ground.
Edwards could give his blessing to Bowles, Blue and others to start running for his Senate seat -- without making any guarantees about whether he'll run again. If Edwards wound up getting back into the Senate race, the others might gracefully bow out.
This scenario would be similar to the model followed by U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, a Florida Democrat seeking the presidency. Several Democrats have started ramping up to run for Graham's seat, which is also on the ballot in 2004.
If Edwards delays a decision too long, it is also possible that another Democrat interested in the race could jump in without his blessing.
No one has publicly suggested that is likely yet.
