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Upper-Middle-Class Dropouts
Forbes ^ | 6/23/03 | Rich Karlgaard

Posted on 06/19/2003 8:04:02 PM PDT by technochick99

The Smith family--yep, like Jayson Blair, I'm making this up--lives in Redwood City, 20 miles south of San Francisco and on the northern edge of what is known as Silicon Valley. The head of the household, John, works as a software coder at Sun Microsystems. He's a good coder but not a superstar on the level of Sun's cofounder, the legendary Bill Joy. John Smith makes $95,000 a year, which sounds plentiful to most Americans. In truth, it doesn't go too far in Silicon Valley, where the cost of a modest 1,900-square-foot house with three bedrooms and one and a half baths crowded onto an 8,000-square-foot lot is--hold your breath!--$786,000. But that's the house where John, his wife, Rosa, and their two children live.

Rosa met John at Sun, back in the early 1990s. She was a newly minted English major writing brochure copy for $38,000 a year; John was making $80,000. After marrying, John and Rosa's combined income was $118,000, plus bonuses. With one child on the way, that was a pretty good sum.

Even better financial conditions lay ahead for the Smiths. After Sun's stock started on its rocket ride during the late 1990s, John's options were worth $360,000. Wisely, in 1999 he and Rosa decided to exercise and sell half their options, using the aftertax $142,000 of their capital gains proceeds as a down payment on their first home in Redwood City. They purchased it for $420,000, which left a mortgage of $278,000. With John's $80,000 base salary (not counting bonuses that averaged $40,000 a year--an amount equivalent to the salary of Rosa, who had quit her job upon learning she was pregnant again), monthly payments were a snap.

Good times rolled for John and Rosa Smith. A second child arrived, and so did job opportunities for John. He weighed offers from software giant Oracle, as well as from three dot-coms--two of which were backed by brand-name venturecapital firms and looked like sure bets to do an IPO and make their early employees rich. This was a heady experience. John decided to stay put because Sun kicked up his base salary to $95,000. John's boss at Sun also granted John more options, a six-week sabbatical and more flex time. Now that was a package!

John felt like a master of the universe! Every employer inSilicon Valley wanted him. He was calling his own shots. The money was pouring in. The Smiths were almost millionaires--on paper, anyway. It was time to trade up to an executive-style house. Time to apply to a private golf club. Time to think about private schooling for their oldest daughter, Kirstin, now 5.

Slide Down the Matterhorn

Sun's stock peaked at $65 in September 2000--six months after the Nasdaq stock composite index peaked at 5031--and the Smith family's paper worth climbed to more than $1 million. John felt like a million bucks. When Sun's stock sagged to $40 in November, he wasn't too worried. The Smiths were in good shape. John's weighted average option strike price at Sun was, after all, $22. The Smith family's paper net worth might not have been $1 million anymore, but it was easily three-quarters of that, counting their home. Thus buoyed, John flew his family (business class) to Italy, where they enjoyed their six-week sabbatical, and spent $45,000.

But Sun's stock kept falling. And falling. It fell so fast that John and Rosa felt paralyzed and missed the opportunity to exercise their options and sell. When Sun's stock fell below John's weighted average strike price of $22 in early 2001, John realized that his Sun paper wealth had vanished. Another type of compensation also vanished later that year--John's bonus. Sun suspended bonuses in 2001, and again in 2002. By then, the company's stock price was hovering around $3.

The Smiths were lucky in two respects. They had their home. And John still had his job, with its $95,000 income. But now this income had to support the entire Smith family concern. Out of the $95,000 had to come the money for taxes, food, clothing, the monthly mortgage, insurance, preschool payments and vacations. Reluctantly, the Smiths put Kirstin in public school. The closest the Smiths came to Italy in 2002--and again in 2003--was a wet slide down the Matterhorn ride at Disneyland. The Toyota Sienna minivan that propelled the Smiths to Disneyland was paid for, but it had 107,000 miles on it and smelled like sour milk.

At work, John no longer feels like a master of the universe. He feels lucky to have his job. He suddenly feels like a commodity, and he doesn't like that feeling one bit. During the last three years, thousands of software jobs like John's have migrated to Bangalore, India. John is so worried about his job that he doesn't take the flex time promised to him. He doesn't sleep well. After two hours of coding at work, the trapezius muscles connecting his neck to his shoulders feel as hard as cast iron. He would like to go for a sauna and a massage, but the $95 that costs would blow the Smith's weekly budget.

The Smiths have dropped out of the upper middle class. Should we feel sorry for them? To be a middle-middle-class American in the early 21st century is to occupy the 99.99 percentile of human existence, in terms of nutrition, wealth and ease. But the Smiths don't feel that way. For a few years in the late 1990s the Smiths had tasted something better. They were upper middle class, or at least close enough to feel like it. They miss that. They are frustrated. They want back in.

Millions of American families are just like the Smiths. Politicians, take heed. The Smiths will decide the election of 2004.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: economy
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To: lelio
So I don't think you're much safer if you own your own independant software business as that's becoming a commodity market as well.

You're not. That's what I'm doing, and what happens is a business will cut back on contracting and on buying software before they will lay people off

81 posted on 06/20/2003 11:19:55 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (Java/C++/Unix/Web Developer looking for next gig)
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To: SUSSA
You're right about historical populist's pandering.

OTOH, a charismatic, Perot-type(contra Huey Long-type) young politician might be able to leapfrog the vested interests to the Presidency.

Now that the Constitution is tattered, the Republic is susceptible to all kinds of procedural mischief, engendered by faction.

Perhaps only a populist can reach over the corrupted institutions to the People.
82 posted on 06/20/2003 11:22:59 AM PDT by headsonpikes
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To: Alberta's Child
Regardless of what you do for a living, your life-style is dictated and controlled by the company you work for. Your employer decides WHEN/HOW much time you will spend at your job or with your family. Your employer determines what size house you can afford, what size car you can drive, where you can afford to take your family on vacation and how long that vacation will be. Many people LOVE their jobs and LOVE what they do but if you ask them if they would do that job for free, most will say no. I didn't come up with this analogy on my own - it was brought to my attention by a successful millionaire+ who owns his own business, one where HE is in control. If you want to be successful and rich, you should get advice from someone who is successful and rich. I've just started my own business too and it's moving so fast, I'll be able to replace my current salary within 5 months and retire with residual income within 5 years. If you are interested in learning more how you can too, freep-mail me.
83 posted on 06/20/2003 11:32:53 AM PDT by GYPSY286
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To: headsonpikes
You may be right.
84 posted on 06/20/2003 11:33:51 AM PDT by SUSSA
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To: bribriagain
Thank you and everyone else who commented on my family situation. You all made very valid points which we have considered. As some of you reccomended, I think my husband should start his own PLC company. Unfortunately, my husband has been a company man his entire life and is scared to go it alone. He installs and repairs PLCs, he doesn't run an office or write memmos.

I wish he would have been fired with the other 6 guys who got the boot. Then he would not have had a choice. As it stands right now he thinks we need the medical insurance and other benefits he is keeping in his new demoted position.

The good news is I think he will be fired as soon as they glean the last bit of information from him and when the new kid thinks he is fully trained. I really look forward to the day. I hate the way my husband has been treated and I can't wait until they see what an asset he was to the company.

There is some talk from the 6 guys who were actually fired about an age discrimination suit, but before they were given their severance pay they were required to sign something saying they would not sue. I told my husband when they fire him not to sign the paper. I will give up whatever they offer him to leave quietly just so I can extract a pound of flesh from those greasy cowards.

85 posted on 06/20/2003 11:48:42 AM PDT by Zevonismymuse
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To: Azzurri
Maybe it's just me but spending $45,000 on a six-week vacation is a bit risky, even with nearly $1 million in paper wealth.

Especially when most of your "wealth" is actually the roof over your head. Shouldn't be counted as an asset.
86 posted on 06/20/2003 11:49:07 AM PDT by Kozak (" No mans life liberty or property is safe when the legislature is in session." Mark Twain)
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To: SUSSA
IMO after the Clinton years and the assorted baggage (treason, Waco, impeachment, Hillarycare, etc.) as well as the these Bush years (open borders, Social Security payments to illegals, largest increase in history for Dept. of Education, Patriot Act, Halliburton, increased fed'l spending) all under the guise of "conservatism" isn't time to realize our choices are only Socialist Party A or B and to agressively seek other choices?
87 posted on 06/20/2003 12:47:31 PM PDT by american spirit (ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION = NATIONAL SUICIDE)
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To: SUSSA
I have to believe there is someone getting ready to pounce on this as it gets worse.

I agree.

88 posted on 06/20/2003 3:06:57 PM PDT by technochick99 (Self defense is a basic human right. http://www.2ASisters.org julib@2asisters.org)
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To: SUSSA
"... he was raising hell about a job he was on where he was the only carpenter who spoke English. He said the contractor hires illegals and pays them cash; he pays no SS tax and no unemployment tax on them. This guy told me he wouldn’t be on the job except the contractor brought him in to redo some cabinetwork the illegals messed up.

Your friend is part of the problem. He is tolerating the contractor's illegal business practices. Is his finger broken? Can he not telephone the local INS office and report this guy? The INS will come in and arrest the illegals and the contractor too with just one little telephone call. Do the right thing. Make the call.

89 posted on 06/20/2003 4:51:20 PM PDT by FreedomCalls (It's the "Statue of Liberty," not the "Statue of Security.")
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To: Zevonismymuse
Unfortunately, my husband has been a company man his entire life and is scared to go it alone. He installs and repairs PLCs, he doesn't run an office or write memmos.

In addition to my suggestion that he might want to start a consulting firm of his own, I'd also strongly suggest that he not do it alone. He should have a partner (maybe you?) who can take care of paperwork while he goes out and does what he does best.

90 posted on 06/20/2003 6:50:44 PM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: headsonpikes
If they had been more responsible their daughter would still be in private school. Spending $45,00 on a vacation, with the salary he was making, was unbelievably reckless. And now the bill has come due, at his daughter's expense.
91 posted on 06/20/2003 7:09:34 PM PDT by CaptainK
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To: Zevonismymuse
they should consult an employment attorney before signing any of those "exit papers".
92 posted on 06/20/2003 7:13:51 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: tortoise
offshoring is not a fad, US companies are re-doubling their investments to make it work.
93 posted on 06/20/2003 7:15:06 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: technochick99
At times we need to clear our thinking and adjust our perspective on what truly adds value to life.

Seek opportunities instead of jobs. There is always a niche that needs to be filled. Some not so glamorous and others downright silly but still VERY profitable.
94 posted on 06/20/2003 8:05:48 PM PDT by ocean
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To: oceanview
offshoring is not a fad, US companies are re-doubling their investments to make it work.

So YOU say, but then how much do you really know? I'm one of the people who makes these decisions, and I have a lot of experience with offshoring, as do my compadres. In a word, it is useless for any but the most brain-dead work. Yes, we tried it because in theory it made good commercial sense. In practice, the overhead is difficult to justify for anything but loss leaders, and all the development that matters will stay in the US for the foreseeable future. Development in cheaper parts of the US is definitely price/brain competitive with anywhere else on the globe in the final picture.

The "investments" are not entirely what they appear. If you aren't a drone and offer real value on the engineering side, your job is safe for the foreseeable future. The bottom feeders in the US engineering market will likely be pushed out in many areas though. Once you move your engineering away from expensive places like Silicon Valley (or California in general), Americans give very cost effective bang for the buck. In the final tally, exporting to better States has proven to the be the best route. Even though we have assets and facilities all over the world, all our engineering is done in places like Florida, Texas, and Nevada, and it is actively being MOVED to these places. That is what the future is going to look like. Commie States are going to die, and the better ones of the bunch will thrive because they still comprehend what a reasonable business environment is. We'll invest in America, but America has to give us something to invest IN.

95 posted on 06/21/2003 12:03:53 AM PDT by tortoise (Would you like to buy some rubber nipples?)
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To: tortoise
So am I. I am not just blowing smoke here with uninformed opinion. I am posting based on what I see happening at work every day.

Its not just "bottom feeder" jobs.

In fact, here is what I see: Yes, the first waves of offshored projects may well have been "bottom feed"; maintenance of legacy systems, etc. And many of those did not demonstrate cost efficiencies, mostly because the company likely still retained the employees who were maintaining those legacy systems anyway.

So now, the approach has shifted: all new projects go offshore, don't staff in the US for them. Don't burden the offshoring process with having to ride the learning curve of transferring an existing system to them. Let them start with a clean sheet of paper, own a new program from start to finish. The US based staffing contribution to the effort comes from system engineering and testing; write the requirements for the offshore developers and test the product they produce. For now at least, once the offshore folks get more experience, they will do that work also.

Article after article is posted here about what is happening, don't tell us jobs are being exported from California to Florida! All these articles about the phenonmenal growth in the Indian IT shops, are you claiming they are all lies? And that's just the start, other areas are moving to: HR, accounting, medical techs, anything that can be done by a person at a desk with a computer is being offshored.

This process is just beginning, alot of people think its just a sudden surge in a fad that will pass. It's not.
96 posted on 06/21/2003 12:45:10 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: LibertyAndJusticeForAll
"Millions of American families are just like the Smiths. Politicians, take heed. The Smiths will decide the election of 2004."

What can any politician do for such a guy? Pass a law mandating the return of the Clinton Bubble?

97 posted on 06/21/2003 12:56:38 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: Polybius
how about eliminating the H1B visa program. How about that?
98 posted on 06/21/2003 12:58:22 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: oceanview
What can any politician do for such a guy? Pass a law mandating the return of the Clinton Bubble?

how about eliminating the H1B visa program. How about that?

That will make his $92,000 job more secure but it won't change the fact that the Clinton Bubble made these people think that buying $420,000 cracker boxes as entry level homes and relying on their own employer's vastly over-inflated stock valuations was the road to future financial security.

99 posted on 06/21/2003 1:11:50 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: Polybius
The cost of living in the Bay area is high, and the salaries are also high; they tend to go hand-in-hand throughout the nation.
The fictitious Smiths have been more fortunate than most in high-tech and I think they understand now that the stock market does not just go up.
What is difficult for people like the Smiths to understand is how a labor shortage in high-tech, reversed so quickly. And, how our current government policies continue as though there still is a labor shortage, when there is not.
These policies are what need to be exposed and changed.
100 posted on 06/21/2003 1:35:19 PM PDT by LibertyAndJusticeForAll
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